Jaylen Brown hasn’t even been on the Sixers for a month. We still haven’t seen him play in a Sixers uniform. Yet the Sixers already have a tough decision to make with him.
On July 26, Brown becomes eligible to sign a one-year extension worth no less than roughly $68.9 million. He’s only eligible to sign that deal between July 26 and the preseason, though. Once the regular season begins, he will not be able to sign an extension again until next summer.
Brown’s upcoming extension talks likely contributed
to the urgency that the Celtics felt to move him this offseason after their failed pursuit of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Celtics president of basketball operations Brad Stevens didn’t admit to that, but he did say “the path looked a little bit more challenging with 70% of our cap and such a high percent of our usage tied into two players.”
As we’ve covered before, the Sixers were already pot-committed to that model, so the upgrade in terms of ability, age, health and availability from Paul George to Brown is arguably worth two first-round picks and then some. But is it worth committing to that model beyond 2029?
Let’s walk through each of Brown and the Sixers’ extension options between now and the expiration of his contract after the 2028-29 season.
This summer: 1-year extension
Had Brown stayed with the Celtics, he would have been eligible for a two-year extension this summer. But once he got traded, he was limited to having a four-year deal for the next six months, including the years remaining on his current contract. That means he can only tack on one more year come July 26, not two.
It’s far too early to make an accurate prediction for the 2029-30 salary cap. But under the current collective bargaining agreement, a player’s max salary for any given season can never be less than 105 percent of what they earned the previous year. Since Brown is set to earn $65.6 million in 2028-29—his age-32 season—his max in 2029-30 would start no lower than nearly $68.9 million.
However, that comes with one major caveat. The current CBA is set to run through 2029-30, but either side can opt out after the 2028-29 season—the year Brown’s current contract is set to expire. If there’s a new CBA in place by the time Brown’s contract expires, the Sixers might want to know what team-building restrictions they might be risking if they continue to assemble a pricy roster.
Brown isn’t the only major deal coming off the Sixers’ books that summer. Both Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey are set to become unrestricted free agents in 2029, although it’s tough to imagine the Sixers allowing that to happen with the latter. VJ Edgecombe will also be a restricted free agent if he doesn’t agree to an extension during the 2028-29 offseason.
Depending on what happens with the CBA, 2029 could be a reset year both for the Sixers and the league at large. With that in mind, it’s hard to imagine the Sixers committing a huge portion of their cap space that far in advance to someone whom they’d never even see play with the rest of the core.
Next summer: 3-year extension
Brown technically would become eligible for a two-year extension with the Sixers in January, six months after the trade. However, since he has multiple years remaining on his deal, he can only sign an extension before the start of the regular season. So, if he doesn’t sign a one-year extension by October, he won’t become extension-eligible again until next summer.
At that point, Brown would be able to add three years and at least $223.2 million to his deal. At a minimum, it could be structured along these lines:
- 2029-30: $68,889,740
- 2030-31: $74,440,920
- 2031-32: $79,912,100
- Total: $223,202,760
Brown would be going into his age-33 season at the beginning of this deal. With Maxey and Edgecombe also heading into new contracts that season—and with Embiid possibly coming off the Sixers’ books—that is a lot of money for someone heading away from his prime.
Perhaps Brown proves to be the Sixers’ missing piece this season, guides them to a championship, quashes any concerns about what analytics might say about him and fully justifies that price tag next summer. If so, the Sixers would likely be happy to pay it.
But if the concerns from the Celtics and the analytics community pan out in Philadelphia as well, it might be less clear whether the Sixers should sign up for three more years of a 35 percent max for Brown.
Summer of 2028: 4-year extension
Perhaps the Sixers and Brown both decide to take this decision down to the wire. Brown is a vice president of the NBPA, so he’ll have an early read on how CBA negotiations are going and the major areas of conflict between the two sides. (It’s easy to guess one of them.)
At this point, the Sixers will be able to negotiate both with Maxey and Edgecombe on new extensions as well. Since all three will be interconnected decisions—as will Embiid if they have interest on bringing him back again—it’d be easiest from their standpoint to coordinate those decisions simultaneously.
This would be Brown’s best chance to cash in before he reaches free agency, too. The first three years would be the same as his three-year extension, but he’d add an extra $85.4 million in his age-36 season to bring the total value of his deal north of $300 million.
- 2029-30: $68,889,740
- 2030-31: $74,440,920
- 2031-32: $79,912,100
- 2032-33: $85,423,270
- Total: $308,626,030
Given how the George experience went for the Sixers, they’ll likely be gunshy about shelling out that kind of cash for someone heading into his mid-30s unless Brown forces their hand in the next two years. Perhaps they can find a middle ground that’s below his 35 percent max but still compensates him handsomely over the coming years. That would be the optimal outcome from the Sixers’ perspective, if nothing else.
With a new CBA guaranteed to be in place no later than the 2030-31 season, most teams around the league figure to keep their books as clean as possible at the turn of the decade, no-brainer keepers notwithstanding. They should feel zero urgency to sign Brown to an extension with that in mind. Brown should likewise be curious about potential changes to the CBA before deciding on his long-term future.
The Sixers and Brown have plenty of time between now and when his contract expires after the 2028-29 season to hammer out an extension. Even though he becomes eligible to tack on an extra year to his deal on July 26, neither side should feel any pressure to get something done before the start of this season.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM.
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