For as much as Auburn’s offense has been a trainwreck for most of the year, their defense has generally been one of the better units in the SEC (they had an argument to be considered the best until Vanderbilt
hung 45 on them a couple of weeks ago). Defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin (aka DJDKAK) has hopped between SEC schools for years now as a blitz-happy playcalller and has had the Tiger’s front 7 playing as well as anyone in the country. Durkin has now been promoted to interim head coach, and while the Tigers did get a nice Moral Victory (TM) by having a decent offensive performance against Vandy, the defense fell apart. Was it because Durkin was no longer focused on just the defense? Who knows.
In any case, the Auburn defense is one of the best in the country at stopping the run. They’re stuffing runs at a 29% rate (just ahead of Oklahoma, and behind only Indiana) and are tied with Texas Tech for the least PPA (predicted points added) allowed on rushing plays. That front 7 is downright impenetrable.
On the other hand, the Tigers are in the bottom quartile in the country in both PPA and explosiveness in the passing game. It’s the opposite of a “bend-but-don’t-break” defense – they either stuff you for 0, or they give up big chunk passes.
Up front, defensive tackle Malik Blocton and Bobby Jamison-Travis have been a massive duo walling up the middle, with Jamison-Travis somehow racking up 31 tackles (5th on the team) from a nose tackle position. Then there are the edges. Keldrick Faulk was one of the best pass rushers in the SEC a year ago, and with his 6’6” 280 frame and pass-rushing chops, he’s generally getting mocked to be a top-15 pick in the upcoming NFL draft, even if his sack production has taken a dip this year.
His bookend, Keyron Crawford, has exploded with Faulk drawing the attention. Crawford has a team-high 38 QB pressures and 5 sacks.
Even with that formidable front, the real heart of the defense is the linebacker group. Xavier Atkins has been incredible after transferring in from LSU. The 210-pound speedster is a Bednarik award semifinalist and leads the team with 15.5 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks. He’s a blitzing phenom that Durkin moves all around to find ways for him to get into the backfield. He’s flanked by Robert Woodyard, a veteran 245 pounder who’s a more traditional thumper and run stopper up the middle. Our old pal Demarcus Riddick is still rotating in, too, but rumor his it he’s still grasping at Jalen Milroe’s dust trail somewhere near the sidelines in Bryant-Denny.
The secondary has been less rosy for the Tigers. Cornerback Kayin Lee has been solid, but Jay Crawford, Sylvester Smith, and Rayshawn Pleasant have all struggled throughout the season in coverage and with tackling in space. None of them have been bad, but they haven’t been particularly good, either.
Then there are safeties Kaleb Harris and Jahquez Robinson. Harris is an exceptional tackler, but has given up more yards than any other defensive back through the air. And Robinson (a former backup corner for Alabama who transferred to Colorado before transferring again to Auburn) has been a liability more often than he’s been impactful.
Essentially, Auburn’s plan is to stuff the run and pressure the QB into oblivion before he can throw the ball, because their secondary isn’t one that’s going to hold up without a good pass rush.
I don’t totally hate this matchup for Alabama. The Tide already can’t run the ball – they’ve proven that against plenty of other worse run defenses. You can’t really run it much worse than the Tide has in plenty of the games this season, so, in a way, that kind of neutralizes Auburn’s best strength.
Alabama’s receivers vs Auburn’s DBs should be a total mismatch, too.
This one is going to come down to how Ty Simpson and the OL handles the blitz. Atkins will be coming often, and Simpson and the RBs will have to pick him up and get the ball out. They’ve proven they can do that earlier this season, but they also failed spectacularly at it against Oklahoma. The good news is that Auburn doesn’t have the defensive backfield that Oklahoma does to really lock things down as the pass rush works on getting home.
Maybe I’m being too optimistic here, but I think Alabama scores a little more than most expect in this one, breaking the 30 point mark for the first time since the Tennessee game. The Tide will get off plenty of big passing plays in what amounts to one of their better offensive performances of the year. Let’s go with 35 for the Tide.
