Washington Men’s Basketball had a rough welcome to the Big Ten in January of 2025. The Huskies had a 7-game stretch between January 2nd and January 24th where Washington played only against opponents that finished 27th or better at KenPom.
That started out well with a surprising win over #10 Maryland in which eventual lottery pick Derek Queen had just 2 points with me in the building. But the Huskies then predictably lost the next 6 games in a row against #17 Illinois, at #7 Michigan State, at #21
Michigan, #15 Purdue, at #27 Oregon, and #20 UCLA. It was a stretch the likes of which Washington hadn’t ever encountered during their time in the Pac-12 (or Pac-10 or Pac-8).
I’m sure the coaching staff hoped they would never have to deal with a January like that again. Whoops. The top of the Big Ten is even better this year with at least five teams that look like they could be legitimate national title contenders. And Washington will have played all five of them in a 7-game span here in January. Sigh. Here’s a look at where those teams currently rank at KenPom:
at #8 Purdue (loss by 8)
#39 Ohio State (win by 7)
#2 Michigan (loss by 10)
#4 Michigan State (loss by 17)
at #12 Nebraska (loss by 10)
#91 Oregon (win by 15)
at #5 Illinois
There’s just one more game left in that span before things finally start to ease up and if Washington can’t pull off a miraculous upset then the Huskies will have gone a predictable 2-5 during that stretch. All that’s truly left now is to assess whether this is the hardest stretch that any team will have to face this season.
In order to answer that question, I went through the schedules of every team in the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 and recorded their toughest 7-game stretch. The ACC and Big East just don’t have the kind of depth of top teams necessary to come remotely close to what is possible within those other three leagues. Here’s what the top 5 looks like though.
TOUGHEST 7-GAME STRETCHES BY AVERAGE OPPONENT KENPOM RANKING
- Arizona– 18.0 average (at #14 Kansas, #17 Texas Tech, #15 BYU, at #7 Houston, at #52 Baylor, #14 Kansas, #6 Iowa State)
- Oregon– 19.6 average (#39 Ohio St, at #12 Nebraska, #2 Michigan, #4 Michigan St, at #48 Washington, #41 UCLA, #21 Iowa)
- Ohio State– 20.3 average (#2 Michigan, #50 USC, #16 Virginia (N), #40 Wisconsin, at #4 Michigan St, at #21 Iowa, #8 Purdue)
- Washington– 22.9 average (at #8 Purdue, #39 Ohio St, #2 Michigan, #4 Michigan St, at #12 Nebraska, #91 Oregon, at #5 Illinois)
- Michigan– 23.7 average (#41 UCLA, at #8 Purdue, #3 Duke (N), #84 Minnesota, at #5 Illinois, at #21 Iowa, #4 Michigan St)
It’s somewhat incredible that undefeated #1 Arizona has the hardest stretch of any team in the country. However, that stretch hasn’t started yet so if the Wildcats actually make it to the NCAA tournament with an undefeated record it would be a truly remarkable achievement. Arizona has already beaten five teams currently ranked in the top 25 at KenPom including four of those away from home. But they’ll have to do it six more times, although just twice outside of Tucson, to get through unscathed.
Michigan is #2 at KenPom with just a single loss but they also have a brutal stretch still to come and are the #5 on the list. A home game against Minnesota right in the middle drags down the average but playing against Purdue, Duke, Illinois, and Michigan State who all rank in the top 8 overall during that time is pretty incredible.
Washington finishes #4 among the 7-game stretch standings here just behind Oregon and Ohio State. It’s not hard to figure out why they rank a little behind the Ducks. The Big Ten hasn’t made UW and Oregon official travel partners the way that the Pac-12 handled things but they do try to give opponents a Pacific Northwest road trip all at once which means the home games are normally the same in conference play. The big difference though is that Oregon had to play at Washington which we discovered is much tougher than hosting the Ducks at home.
It’s also worth noting that UW’s stretch last year to start off January had an average of 16.7 and so would’ve been tougher than what anyone has right now on this year’s schedule.
Now let’s look at the 5-game stretches. I went through each of these 7-game spans and calculated the average opponent KenPom rank for games 1-5, 2-6, and 3-7 and then looked at which of those was the toughest. It’s technically possible that a team had a non-conference stretch from outside the teams that I looked at which would qualify towards the top. But from a quick sample of some of the hardest non-con schedules, usually there was at least one buy game that interrupted things so the conference schedule was universally the toughest.
TOUGHEST 5-GAME STRETCHES BY AVERAGE OPPONENT KENPOM RANKING
- Washington– 12.8 average (at #8 Purdue, #39 Ohio St, #2 Michigan, #4 Michigan St, at #12 Nebraska)
- Purdue– 14.8 average (at #12 Nebraska, at #21 Iowa, #2 Michigan, #37 Indiana, #4 Michigan St)
- Northwestern– 17.6 average (#48 Washington, at #5 Illinois, at #21 Iowa, #2 Michigan, at #12 Nebraska)
- Ohio State– 18.0 average (#16 Virginia (N), #40 Wisconsin, at #4 Michigan St, at #21 Iowa, #8 Purdue)
- Arizona– 18.8 average (#15 BYU, at #7 Houston, at #52 Baylor, #14 Kansas, #6 Iowa State)
There’s not much of a question here that Washington has the toughest 5-game stretch in the country right now. Maybe one or more of those teams goes into a funk over the rest of the season or experiences a key injury that drops them down 30 spots in KenPom and causes UW to lose their top ranking here. But given that Washington has already made it almost all the way through this stretch and none of the others has started theirs yet suggests that UW should be able to claim the #1 no matter what.
Purdue comes close at #2. They also play at Nebraska and home against the Michigan schools. Home games against Ohio State and Indiana are negligible. The only real difference is that Purdue plays at Iowa while Washington had to play at Purdue.
The Big Ten also hold spots #3 and #4 with Northwestern and Ohio State. Northwestern joins Purdue as teams that weren’t in the top 5 of the 7-game stretch totals that are in the 5-game stretch. That’s because Northwestern had #127 Penn State and #126 Maryland bookending either end of their toughest 5 games which give them a chance to break things up.
Arizona drops from #1 to #5 as their average opponent ranking actually gets slightly worse despite looking at a smaller time period. The real difficulty in their schedule comes from playing a bunch of teams ranked in the teens rather than the Big Ten which has a ton of teams in the top ten.
