The top seven teams in today’s bracket match those in Tuesday’s edition, with the first change coming at the end of seed line 2. That’s where Purdue jumped Nebraska after the Boilermakers’ thrilling OT victory in Lincoln—a game which featured a furious Cornhusker comeback. The next change in the top 16 came at the very end, as Alabama jumped into the last protected seed spot at the expense of Virginia.
There are two new at-larges in today’s update—and, consequently, one fewer multi-bid conference.
Both of Tuesday’s Mountain West at-larges, New Mexico and San Diego State dropped out, with TCU and Virginia Tech replacing them. I’ll have more on the bubble picture in the Rundown following today’s full bracket.
NOTE: Changes since Tuesday’s projection are noted with (★) for new entrants, (▲) for teams moving up one or more seed lines, and (▼) for teams moving down one or more seed lines.
(1) Midwest (Chicago, Fri./Sun.)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Michigan (Big Ten)
(16) NJIT (AE)/Morgan State (MEAC)
(8) Villanova
▼(9) Auburn
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
▲(5) Arkansas
(12) Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
(4) Texas Tech
(13) Hawai’i (Big West)
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
▼(6) North Carolina
★/★(11) Virginia Tech/TCU
(3) Florida (SEC)
▲(14) Austin Peay (ASUN)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
(7) Utah State (MW)
▲(10) Indiana
(2) Iowa State
(15) Harvard (Ivy)
(4) South (Houston, Thurs./Sat.)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(1) UConn (Big East)
—/★(16) Bethune-Cookman (SWAC)/Tennessee State (OVC)
▲(8) Wisconsin
(9) Georgia
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
▲(5) Louisville
(12) South Florida (AC)
▲(4) Alabama
(13) Winthrop (Big South)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) Saint Louis (A 10)
(11) Miami (Ohio) (MAC)
▼(3) Nebraska
(14) North Dakota State (Summit)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
▲(7) NC State
(10) UCLA
(2) Houston
★(15) App State (Sun Belt)
(2) West (San José, Thurs./Sat.)
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Arizona (Big 12)
(16) LIU (NEC)
▲(8) SMU
▼(9) Texas A&M
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) Tennessee
(12) Liberty (CUSA)
(4) Gonzaga
(13) Cal Baptist (WAC)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) BYU
(11) Santa Clara (WCC)
(3) Michigan State
(14) Portland State (Big Sky)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(7) Clemson
(10) Texas
▲(2) Purdue
(15) Wright State (Horizon)
(3) East (Washington, D.C., Fri./Sun.)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Duke (ACC)
(16) Merrimack (MAAC)
(8) Iowa
(9) UCF
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
▼(5) Virginia
(12) Belmont (MVC)
(4) Vanderbilt
(13) UNCW (CAA)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) St. John’s
—/▼(11) Miami (Fla.)/USC
(3) Kansas
(14) ETSU (SoCon)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
(7) Kentucky
(10) Saint Mary’s
(2) Illinois
(15) Navy (Patriot)
Rundown
Last Four Byes: Saint Mary’s, Indiana, UCLA, Texas
Last Four IN: Miami (Fla.), USC, Virginia Tech, TCU
First Four OUT: Missouri, Ohio State, San Diego State, New Mexico
Next Four Out: VCU, Seton Hall, Baylor, California
On Deck: Oklahoma State, Nevada, Boise State, West Virginia
ARRIVALS (4): App State (Sun Belt), TCU, Tennessee State (OVC), Virginia Tech
DEPARTURES: New Mexico, San Diego State, Troy (Sun Belt), UT Martin (OVC)
Of the eight teams immediately above the Cut Line and 12 teams immediately below it, 8 won their midweek game, four lost (USC, Baylor, Cal, Oklahoma State), and 8 more were idle. So, a few teams managed to be passed just because of bye timing. With this weekend’s schedule being jam packed and the margins still being relatively small, expect to see more shuffling on Tuesday.
Conference Breakdown
Big Ten (10): Michigan (auto bid), Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana, UCLA, USC (First Four)
SEC (10): Florida (auto bid), Vanderbilt, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Georgia, Auburn, Texas
ACC (9): Duke (auto bid), Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson, NC State, SMU, Miami (Fla.) (First Four), Virginia Tech (First Four)
Big 12 (8): Arizona (auto bid), Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, UCF, TCU (First Four)
Big East (3): UConn (auto bid), St. John’s, Villanova
WCC (3): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara (auto bid)
25 one-bid conferences
Games to Watch
- All times are p.m. Eastern, unless noted.
- Games are listed in rough order of bracket importance with standout games in bold.
- Teams in the field are preceded by their seed number (1) to (16).
- Teams out of the bracket but still alive for an at-large are marked with an (OUT).
Friday
(3) Michigan State at (8) Wisconsin, 8 (Fox)
(6) Saint Louis at Loyola Chicago, 8:30 (ESPN2)
Ohio at (11) Miami (Ohio), 9 (ESPN)
UNLV at (OUT) Boise State, 10 (FS1)
(OUT) George Mason at George Washington, 7 (CBSSN)
Yale at Dartmouth, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Brown at (15) Harvard, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
While the MAC-leading RedHawks look to remain the nation’s lone undefeated team and the top two in the Ivy have Friday night tests before their Saturday showdown in Boston, the game of the night is in the Big Ten. The Badgers, who now own the two best road wins of the season after topping Illinois in OT on Tuesday night, really need to take care of business at home against the Spartans. Wisconsin doesn’t have much hope of catching Michigan at the top of the Big Ten standings, but the Badgers are only a game behind the four-team chase pack of three-loss teams. Beating Sparty could be crucial in the race for one of the four quarterfinal byes in the 18-team Big Ten Tournament. It would also help Greg Gard’s team get out of an 8/9 game.
Saturday
(3) Kansas at (2) Iowa State, 1 (ABC)
(7) Clemson at (1) Duke, 12 (ESPN)
(10) UCLA at (1) Michigan, 1 (CBS)
(6) St. John’s at Providence, 1 (TNT/TruTV)
Northwestern at (3) Nebraska, 1 (BTN)
(11) TCU at (OUT) Oklahoma State, 12 (ESPN2)
(OUT) California at Boston College, 12 (ACCN)
Samford at (14) ETSU, 12 (ESPNU)
(15) Navy at Colgate, 12 (CBSSN)
(16) LIU at New Haven, 1 (NEC Front Row)
UMBC at New Hampshire, 1 (ESPN+ ($))
While Clemson and UCLA both have huge, if unlikely, quality win opportunities in front of them, perhaps the two most impactful games are in the Big 12. In the earlier tip, bracket newcomer TCU visits an Oklahoma State team that dropped from one of the “First Four Out” to the ninth team out following a pair of losses in Arizona. An hour later, national 2 seed Iowa State hosts a Kansas squad that knocked Arizona from the ranks of the undefeated. The Jayhawks are one of two teams poised to potentially get to seed line 2 with the right result on Saturday afternoon.
Navy’s trip to Colgate is a possible Patriot League championship game preview, though the Midshipmen are two games up on the Raiders, meaning a third matchup would be set for Annapolis.
(7) Kentucky at (3) Florida, 3 (ABC)
Florida State at (11) Virginia Tech, 2 (ACCN)
(8) Villanova at Creighton, 2:30 (Fox)
(8) SMU at Syracuse, 2 (CW)
Pitt at (6) North Carolina, 2 (ESPN)
(12) Liberty at UTEP, 2 (ESPN2)
High Point at Gardner-Webb, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
(14) North Dakota State at North Dakota, 2 (CBSSN)
Bryant at Vermont, 2 (NESN/ESPN+ ($))
(16) NJIT at Maine, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
The other 3 seed that could jump to a 2 with the right combo of results this week is a terrifying Gator team that’s won four straight—trailing for only 9 seconds in that span. Florida has to like its chances at home against a Kentucky team that’s won eight of nine—though many of those games were far closer than anything the hosts have dealt with since losing to Auburn at the O’Dome.
(2) Purdue at (8) Iowa, 5 (Fox)
(5) Louisville vs. (OUT) Baylor (at Fort Worth), 4 (ESPN)
(11) Miami (Fla.) at (7) NC State, 4 (ESPN2)
(9) Georgia at Oklahoma, 3:30 (SECN)
Colorado at (6) BYU, 4 (FS1)
Kansas State at (2) Houston, 4 (Peacock ($))
(OUT) Stanford at Wake Forest, 4 (ACCN)
Hofstra at (13) UNCW, 4 (CBSSN)
(15) App State at James Madison, 4 (ESPN+ ($))
(14) Portland State at Northern Colorado, 4 (ESPN+ ($))
(16) Tennessee State at Morehead State, 3:30 (ESPN+ ($))
UT Martin at SIU Edwardsville, 4:30 (ESPN+ ($))
(16) Morgan State at South Carolina State, 4 (ESPN+ ($))
Coppin State at North Carolina Central, 4:30 (ESPN+ ($))
The late afternoon window features the first of two February non-conference neutral-site showcases pitting a team outside the field against an ACC team that’s safely in. There’s also an opportunity for the Hurricanes to pick up second “quality” Quad 1 win in a row in Raleigh, something that’s kept them from rising out of the Last Four In group. In the Big Ten, Purdue will look to take care of business at Carver-Hawkeye, where the hosts will be smarting from picking up a bad loss at Maryland on Wednesday.
(4) Texas Tech at (1) Arizona, 6:30 (ESPN)
(OUT) West Virginia at (9) UCF, 6 (FS1)
LSU at (5) Tennessee, 6 (SECN)
(OUT) VCU at Richmond, 6 (CBSSN)
Tulsa at Wichita State, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Yale at (15) Harvard, 6:30 (ESPNU)
(12) Stephen F. Austin at UTRGV, 5:30 (ESPN+ ($))
McNeese at East Texas A&M, 6 (ESPN+ ($))
Bellarmine at (15) Austin Peay, 5:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Maryland-Eastern Shore at Howard, 5:30 (ESPN+ ($))
A pair of Big 12 matchups and that top of the Ivy showdown at Lavietes Pavilion highlight the early evening window. First up, the Knights and Mountaineers meet in Orlando with both teams sitting at 6-5 in Big 12 play (along with BYU)—that’s a game West Virginia needs to win for its at-large hopes. (The two meet again in Morgantown to close out the regular season.) A half-hour later, the Wildcats return home looking to rebound after Monday’s loss in Lawrence. This game is the first of a two-game homestand that concludes Wednesday with a visit from BYU, which is followed by road games in Houston and Waco. Since the Big 12 doesn’t let up, Arizona can’t afford to let KU defeat them twice.
Meanwhile, the Ivy favorites will look to avenge their 67-65 home loss to the hosts back on January 31st. Might there be a rubber match in Ithaca on Selection Sunday?
(5) Virginia vs. (OUT) Ohio State (at Nashville), 8 (Fox)
(9) Auburn at (5) Arkansas, 8;30 (ESPN)
(10) Texas at (OUT) Missouri, 8:30 (ESPN2)
Georgetown at (1) UConn, 8 (Peacock ($)/NBCSN)
South Carolina at (4) Alabama, 8:30 (SECN)
Memphis at (7) Utah State, 8 (CBSSN)
(13) Hawai’i at CSUN, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Troy at Southern Miss, 8:30 (ESPN+ ($))
The second neutral-site showcase is the Virginia-Ohio State game that’s somewhat inexplicably set for Nashville. A Buckeye win would immediately boost their hopes, considering they’re currently 5-8 in Quad 1 and 2 games with a 1-7 mark in the top category. That’s a big reason why they’re the second team out today.
Auburn is another team that could use a profile boost after three straight losses that have seen the Tigers move closer to the Cut Line. The host Razorbacks, meanwhile, are a threat to get to a protected seed position with a few more wins. Another set of SEC Tigers, Mizzou, is currently the first team out. That would likely change with a home win over the Longhorns.
(4) Gonzaga at (11) Santa Clara, 10:30 (ESPN)
(OUT) Nevada at (OUT) San Diego State, 10 (CBSSN)
(10) Saint Mary’s at Pacific, 10:30 (ESPN2)
(13) Cal Baptist at Utah Tech, 9 (ESPN+ ($))
In the WCC, the Broncos can take a big step toward securing an at-large by knocking off the visiting Bulldogs. Santa Clara currently leads the Zags by a half-game and third-place Saint Mary’s by a game and a half, so a win would put Herb Sendek’s squad in great position for the WCC Tournament.
In the Mountain West, Nevada’s trip to Viejas isn’t quite a bubble elimination game, but it’s close.
Sunday
(10) Indiana at (2) Illinois, 1 (CBS)
(12) South Florida at Florida Atlantic, 2 (ESPN2)
North Texas at Temple, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
(15) Wright State at Cleveland State, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
(16) Merrimack at Quinnipiac, 2 (NESN/ESPN+ ($))
(OUT) Seton Hall at Butler, 6 (FS1)
(12) Belmont at Murray State, 6 (ESPN2)
Sunday’s schedule features what should be an angry Fighting Illini team that will be looking to keep the Hoosiers from becoming the second consecutive Big Ten bubble team to get a boost by winning in Champaign. There are also possible conference title game previews in Boca Raton, Connecticut, and Kentucky. As for the Horizon League-leading Raiders, they’ve dropped two of three as they head to Cleveland to face a Viking squad that already beat them in Dayton.
Monday
Syracuse at (1) Duke, 7 (ESPN)
(12) Stephen F. Austin at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
McNeese at Northwestern State, 7:30 (ESPN+ ($))
(16) Bethune-Cookman at Jackson State, 7 (ESPNU)
Wagner at (16) LIU, 7 (NEC Front Row)
(16) Morgan State at North Carolina Central, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
(2) Houston at (2) Iowa State, 9 (ESPN)
The biggest game of the night before my next update features a pair of Big 12 2 seeds, with the Cougars positioned to jump onto the top line with a win and some help (a Duke or UConn lost). The Cyclones could get there too, but they’ll need to beat Kansas first.
