Another trip to the Sweet Sixteen for Brad Underwood and the Illini, and another tough, physical Big 12 2-seed awaiting them. Houston arrives to the Sweet Sixteen in similar dominating fashion as the Illini have, with 31-point victories over two double-digit seeds. A lot of the talk so far has been about how can Illinois handle a couple things that have given them problems this year: physical, aggressive teams like Michigan State and Michigan, and teams with quick, talented guards like UCLA, Wisconsin
and Alabama. Houston has both of those aspects, but don’t ignore that Illinois has strengths that can give Houston problems as well.
I will get into the details of that below, but I just want to point out that this is a Houston team that went 3-6 against top-21 Kenpom opponents (I went to 21 to include all their losses). In those same games, Illinois went 4-5, with three of those wins in hostile environments. Illinois has famously struggled in their buzzer beater and overtime games this year, going 0-4, but Houston has not fared much better, going 2-4 in games that were within a possession with under a minute to go, only beating Texas Tech at home and Auburn. While this is getting pumped up as a Final Four matchup — and rightly so on talent — neither of these teams ended up as 1-seeds because they both have come up a bit short when it has mattered most.
Players to Know
Kingston Flemings, 6-foot-4 freshman point guard
Flemings is tied to Keton Wagler in history, as the two of them joined AJ Dybantsa to become the first trio of freshmen to score 40+ points on the same day, when Flemings scored 42 in an overtime loss against Texas Tech and Wagler scored 46 against Purdue. They also are in close competition for draft position in the 5-10 range of the lottery.
While they play the same position, they go about their business in very different way. Flemings is an elite, downhill guard, using his speed and explosiveness to put pressure on the rim. Shooting from three was the biggest question mark for Flemings coming into college, and while he has shot it well at 38.8%, he has not shot it often, with only 2.9 attempts per game. If the driving lane collapses on him, he is a talented passer as well, surrounded by capable shooters.
Kylan Boswell will get the primary assignment here and has been at his best in the tourney defensively with his career on the line, but I am more interested in how well the big men can contest in the midrange while also winning the angle to cut him off from getting all the way to the basket.
Emanuel Sharp, 6-foot-3 senior guard
While Flemings is the high-end NBA talent on the team, Sharp is the senior leader who will come up with the big play when they need it most. He has been with Kelvin Sampson for four years now, and embodies the toughness that Houston is known for. He is Houston’s best shooter, with NBA range and a quick trigger, getting up 7 threes a game.
He is also their best perimeter defender and will likely be used to put a physical body on Wagler, although Houston will switch a lot so Illinois will look to get someone less imposing on Wagler whenever possible.
Illinois will probably start with Jake Davis on him, but it is imperative for Stojakovic to have a strong game because his quickness will be needed to stay with Sharp on screens, and in front of him off the dribble.
Jojo Tugler, 6-foot-7 junior forward
Tugler is one of the 3-5 best defensive players in the entire country. While just 6-foot-7, he has the length and strength to guard bigger players, but also the footspeed to stay in front of guards. He is the catalyst of their trapping defense, as passing over and around him is easier said than done, and he will quickly get back into the play from behind for steals and blocks, averaging 1.3 and 1.5 per game respectively. On that end of the floor, he is as close to Draymond Green as any player in college basketball.
On the other end, he is still a very limited player. He has some post-up game and flip shots out of the short roll, as well as being a major threat on putbacks. However, he is not a threat from more than 12 feet away, so expect Illinois to put the Ivisic twins on Tugler, to allow them to protect the rim and be the big defender in pick and roll options more often.
Milos Uzan, 6-foot-4 senior guard
Uzan was a key transfer from Oklahoma for Houston last year, stabilizing the point guard position after they lost Jamal Shead to the NBA. With Flemings in the fold this year, Uzan has moved off the ball more frequently, and he has had some problems fitting in offensively.
His efficiency is way down across the board, 45% to 38.6% from the field, 42.8% to 34.3% from three and 78% to 74% from the free throw line. At his best, he has a silky-smooth midrange floater game. Keaton Wagler would me my guess for the assignment here.
Chris Cenac, 6-foot-11 freshman center
Cenac was actually the more highly touted member of this freshman class than Flemings, as the number six overall recruit. While he has been a solid player for Houston, averaging 9.6 points and 7.8 rebounds per game, he is still a bit raw and scratching the surface of his potential.
Offensively, while he can shoot from three at 34%, he is a bit of a clunky fit next to Tugler, as it forces Cenac to float more outside while they use Tugler in more ball screens. Defensively, he has the size, length and mobility that will have NBA teams fawning over him, but he is the one starter on this Houston team that is prone to mental lapses on rotations or a lazy box out.
It will be interesting to see if Houston puts him on Mirkovic or Tomislav, whichever one it is will likely be our primary screener, to keep Tugler out of the primary action.
How They Play
Offense
Their offense is what you would expect from an offense with an elite point guard: A hundred different variations of ball screens with weakside screening actions off it. All four starters besides Tugler love midrange shots and will take a bunch of them. That will be an interesting battle of wills, as Illinois likes to force midrange jumpers, but if Houston is hitting them will Illinois adjust.
They do not shoot many free throws (336th in the country in attempts per game), as only Flemings and Sharp will go into or through a help defender on the drive rather than pulling up. Besides midrange shots, their other standout offensive skill is rebounding. They do not send everyone as relentlessly as Illinois does, but their power forwards and centers go hard, with Tugler alone averaging three offensive rebounds a game. It makes going to the zone to slow down Flemings’s penetration a risky proposition, as rebounding is more difficult in the zone.
Defense
Houston will switch everyone on the perimeter except Tugler and sometimes Cenac, who will instead come out and trap aggressively. Even when you get out of the trap, they rotate and recover so quickly that they rarely leave open shots. On switches, there are no real weak links, as even Cenac can stay close enough to affect guards shooting while also moving his feet to stay in front of them.
They force turnovers on 17.9% of opponents plays (15th best in the country) and only allow opponents to shoot 39.5% from the field. There are weaknesses though. The Cougars have a 23.6% foul rate, which is 293rd in the country.
If you can get Tugler in foul trouble in particular, it takes some of the bite out of their aggression. They are also susceptible on the defensive glass, with opponents having a 27.1% offensive rebound rate. After an offensive rebound, it is much easier to get a clean look against them in scramble mode than their set halfcourt defense.
How Illinois Can Win
Rebound, Rebound, Rebound
This goes for both sides of the court. If Illinois wins the rebounding battle, not necessarily by total rebounds but talking about rebound rates, Illinois should win this game. That is not an easy thing to do with Houston’s prowess on the offensive glass in particular, but with the way they rotate defensively and the way we attack the glass offensively, there are opportunities for advantages there.
If we are not getting at least a third of our own shots back we are in trouble, because Houston will attack quickly when we have four players crashing the glass. Winning the rebounding battle is a key sign that we are playing with the toughness necessary to beat a team like Houston.
Point Forwards, Point Centers
The way Houston defends, they are not going to let Keaton Wagler be the one to beat them. for Keaton to score, it will have to be in isolation when they pick a player they want to get switched on to him, or out of off ball movement. In pick and rolls, the way they switch and trap, there will not be room to get downhill often, or get to his step back.
Which means David Mirkovic and Tomislav Ivisic will need to be the primary creators for the team in this one. When their man traps Wagler, Wagler is a very good decision maker and will throw it over the top to the big. Rather than just popping to three, they will need to look to attack and draw more help and then find open shooters.
Big men who are skilled passers and readers of the defense is the main offensive advantage Illinois has that most teams that play Houston can’t boast. In every single one of their losses except Kansas (who beat them by holding Houston under 60), you can find a big man who was scoring and getting at least a few assists out of the short roll (JT Toppin, Joshua Jefferson, Nate Ament, Ivan Kharchenkov or Koa Peat).
Free Throw Discrepancy
The Champaign Room’s Robby Nardini had this great tweet about Houston:
The turnovers could be another key, but that is strength against strength. Illinois is fourth in the country in turnover rate and has turned the ball over exactly 13 times only three times all year. They have yet to turn the ball over 14 or more times. You can’t expect a perfectly clean game against Houston’s pressure, but I think Illinois should be able to manage keeping the turnovers in the 9-12 range.
The free throws are also strength against strength but can be much more volatile depending on how the stripes are calling the game. On the season, Illinois averages eight more free throws per game than their opponents, while Houston averages four less. Illinois will almost certainly get fewer shots than Houston, even if they rebound well. Houston dominates shot discrepancy.
However, Illinois can combat that by getting to the line 10+ times more than Houston does, earning 7-8 more free points assuming they are not having one of their badly timed off days from the line. Beyond the free points, besides Mercy Miller who has come on strong late, forcing Houston starters to the bench for backups is a significant drop off in talent level for Houston. Get into that bench, and the advantage tilts strongly in Illinois’ favor. The Illini need to be in attack mode early to put pressure on the refs to exhale forcefully into their plastic toys.
It should be a great game of very good teams that rely on starkly contrasting philosophies to arrive at their success. Entering the tournament, I would have picked Houston to win. However, the way Tomislav and Boswell in particular have picked up their play in the tournament has changed my outlook on the team since the Wisconsin debacle, and I believe this is truly a coin flip game. Which could be bad news for Illinois given the lack of success they have had so far in close games.
Do you think the Illini can finally get the better of Kelvin Sampson on Thursday?
