The Atlanta Falcons have a bunch of problems right now. At least one of them can’t be fixed in the moment—the run defense is only going to improve when Divine Deablo, LaCale London, and Sam Roberts are
back, and then only modestly—but their offense feels like it can be salvaged.
What does that salvage job look like? It would involve personnel and schematic adjustments, in all likelihood, with improvement from struggling players like Michael Penix Jr. and Darnell Mooney. What it won’t involve is changes to the coaching staff, at least just yet.
At this point, Arthur Blank will have to force Raheem Morris to make an in-season change for it to happen. Morris did not let go of Jimmy Lake last year during the season despite having to take a more hands-on role in the defense, which had ruined the fortunes of previously productive players like Nate Landman and Dee Alford, and it’s doubtful he’ll do so with Zac Robinson either. This is a man who hand-picked these coaches and has a reputation for loyalty; I’m sure firing Ike Hilliard earlier this year and Lake after last season was painful enough for him.
Robinson is working with challenges that likely have contributed to Morris being willing to stick with him. The team lost its top two right tackles options early in the year, are working with a still-developing quarterback, went through the bizarre Ray-Ray McCloud saga, and clearly are not working with a Darnell Mooney who is as healthy and effective as he was a year ago. The ground game is still good when the team leans on it smartly, Robinson has shown the ability to scheme options open—see the Pitts end zone missed bomb and Pitts drop on another explosive from Sunday—and the team is improving its red zone fortunes as the season rolls on.
But it’s not clear Robinson can salvage this thing. Michael Penix Jr.‘s confidence appears to be shaken at the moment, he either can’t take the easy answers available to him or they’re not actually available, and Robinson’s own decision-making is consistently baffling. The team goes away from the run frequently despite the passing game being a mess, still runs out of three wide receiver sets over 50% of the time despite having the 28th-best EPA mark out of 11 personnel, and has scoring and situational efficiency numbers that rank among the bottom third of the NFL more or less across the board. The architect of the offense—and he is, given that Raheem Morris is not an offensive-minded head coach the way Arthur Smith was—ultimately is responsible for its lack of success, which has to put Robinson’s future with the franchise in doubt.
It likely won’t happen this year unless Atlanta keeps stacking losses and things become truly untenable. Morris has locked himself in to this quarterback and this offensive coordinator, heaping praise on both and defending them from outside questioning, and there’s an admirable willingness to go down with the ship in service of supporting two people I genuinely believe that he believes in. But right now, with the Falcons losing four straight games, the offense playing a major role in all four, and the would-be franchise quarterback struggling, it looks like at least one of the major pieces on that side of the ball are headed for a messy exit. Given the level of investment in Penix, that man is likely to be Robinson, and he’ll need to do some phenomenal work reviving this offense for that to change between now and the end of the season.
