There were more changes to the final bracket than I expected this morning.
- In the auto bid section of the field, Penn won an OT thriller to knock Yale out, 88-84, which shook up seed lines 12 through 15. The Bulldogs were slated to be a 12, but the Quakers are two lines lower. So, Northern Iowa moves up to the 12 line, while North Dakota State jumps back on to line 13. With South Florida beating Wichita State for the American crown, the Bulls remain on line 11.
- VCU held off a late Dayton charge to win the Atlantic 10 Tournament title for a second consecutive year, 70-62. That means the Rams and Saint Louis are the conference’s two bids for 2026.
- Arkansas’s 86-75 win over Vanderbilt in the SEC final keeps the Razorbacks on the 4 line. The Commodores remain on the 3 line, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Selection Committee flipped them with Virginia again.
- The Purdue-Michigan result didn’t change anything. The Wolverines are still No. 2 overall, and the Boilermakers remain on the 2 line.
- After reviewing the profiles of Auburn, Indiana, Oklahoma, San Diego State, and Texas, I swapped the Sooners with the Longhorns. All of these teams have major flaws. The sheer number of losses should disqualify the Tigers. For the Hoosiers, a 4-10 record away from home is simply not helpful. The Aztecs don’t have any wins out of conference against decent opposition. For me, the difference between the Sooners and Horns boils down to final impressions: Texas lost five of its last six, including an OT home loss to their bubble rivals and that 10-point loss to Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament second round in Nashville. Contrast that to Oklahoma, who rallied from a nine-game winning streak to finish with 8 wins in their last 11, including six in a row before Arkansas toppled the Sooners 82-79 in the SEC quarterfinals.
On to the final projection of the season. Thank you for following over the winter. I’ll have some content as the Tournaments progress, mostly liveblogging on the Feed, since I’ll have more time for it. I’ll be over on SBNation.com’s Feed at over the coming days handing out bracket advice.
NOTES:
- Changes since Sunday morning’s bracket are noted with (★) for new entrants, (▲) for teams moving up one or more seed lines, and (▼) for teams moving down one or more seed lines.
- Teams that have clinched auto bids are in ALL CAPS BOLD.
- The highest-remaining seed in an active conference tournament holds its auto bid.
(1) East (Washington, D.C., Fri./Sun.)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) DUKE (ACC)
(16) QUEENS (ASUN)
(8) TCU
(9) Iowa
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(5) Texas Tech
(12) HIGH POINT (Big South)
(4) ARKANSAS (SEC) (13) HAWAI’I (Big West)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) North Carolina
(11) Missouri/Santa Clara
(3) Illinois
(14) WRIGHT STATE (Horizon)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(7) Kentucky
(10) NC State
(2) UConn
(15) SIENA (MAAC)
(4) South (Houston, Thurs./Sat.)
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Florida
(16) LIU (NEC)/HOWARD (MEAC)
(8) Miami (Fla.)
(9) Ohio State
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) Kansas
(12) MCNEESE (Southland)
(4) Nebraska
▲(13) NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(6) Tennessee
—/★ (11) SMU/Oklahoma
(3) Michigan State
(14) KENNESAW STATE (CUSA)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
(7) Clemson
(10) Saint Louis
(2) Houston
(15) FURMAN (SoCon)
(2) Midwest (Chicago, Fri./Sun.)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Michigan
—/★(16) LEHIGH (Patriot)/PRAIRIE VIEW A&M (SWAC)
(8) Villanova
(9) UCF
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
(5) Alabama
(12) AKRON (MAC)
(4) Virginia
(13) HOFSTRA (CAA)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) Louisville
(11) VCU (A 10)
(3) Vanderbilt
(14) TROY (Sun Belt)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
(7) Saint Mary’s
(10) Miami (Ohio)
(2) Iowa State
(15) TENNESSEE STATE (OVC)
(3) West (San José, Thurs./Sat.)
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(1) ARIZONA (Big 12)
(16) UMBC (AE)
(8) UCLA
(9) Georgia
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) Wisconsin
▲(12) NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
(4) ST. JOHN’S (Big East)
(13) CALIFORNIA BAPTIST (WAC)
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) BYU
(11) SOUTH FLORIDA (American)
(3) GONZAGA (WCC)
★(14) PENN (Ivy)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
(7) UTAH STATE (MW)
(10) Texas A&M
(2) PURDUE (Big Ten)
(15) IDAHO (Big Sky)
Rundown
Last Four Byes: Saint Louis, Miami (Ohio), NC State, Texas A&M
Last Four IN: Santa Clara, Missouri, SMU, Oklahoma
First Four OUT: Texas, San Diego State, Auburn, Indiana
Next Four Out: New Mexico, Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Stanford
Also Considered: Cincinnati, West Virginia, California, Florida State, Dayton, USC, Tulsa, Nevada
ARRIVALS (2): Oklahoma, Penn (Ivy)
DEPARTURES: Texas, Yale (Ivy)
Conference Breakdown
SEC (10): Florida, Vanderbilt, Arkansas (auto bid), Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas A&M, Missouri (First Four), Oklahoma (First Four)
Big Ten (9): Michigan (auto bid), Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, UCLA, Ohio State, Iowa
ACC (8): Duke (auto bid), Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson, Miami (Fla.), NC State, SMU (First Four)
Big 12 (8): Arizona (auto bid), Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, TCU, UCF
Big East (3): UConn, St. John’s (auto bid), Villanova
WCC (3): Gonzaga (auto bid), Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara (First Four)
Atlantic 10 (2): Saint Louis, VCU (auto bid)
MAC (2): Miami (Ohio), Akron (auto bid)
23 one-bid conferences
