Now that the Green Bay Packers have clinched their playoff spot, thanks to the Detroit Lions losing on Christmas Day
, it’s time to really get into the nitty-gritty of the seeding race. Below is a table of the Packers’ playoff percentages for each seed in the playoffs, based on possible results from Week 17’s NFC action. Let’s take you through all relevant games for Green Bay this week, ranked by their level of importance.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers
Obviously, we all want the Packers to win this game. If they lose to the Baltimore
Ravens, Green Bay will be locked into the seventh seed, according to the New York Times/The Athletic’s simulation. A Packers win, even if the Chicago Bears win on Sunday, still allows Green Bay to play for the fifth and sixth seeds in the wild-card race.
Packers’ chances to be anything other than the 7 seed:
- Loss vs. Ravens: 0 percent
- Win vs. Ravens: 35 percent
Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers
If you want there to be any chance of the Packers hosting a playoff game at Lambeau Field this postseason, you’re a San Francisco 49ers fan for Sunday Night Football. If the Packers win and the Bears lose, it puts Green Bay in a position where they can actually still win the division, giving them a chance at the second or third seed (depending on what happens to the Philadelphia Eagles) in Week 18.
For Green Bay to win the NFC North, they have to win out while Chicago loses out. That’s the last path to hosting a game at Lambeau Field in the first round of the playoffs.
Packers’ chance of winning the NFC North:
- Without Packers win/Bears loss in Week 17: 0 percent
- With Packers win/Bears loss in Week 17: 31 percent
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills
If the Packers do manage to win the NFC North, what happens with the Eagles to end the year becomes very relevant. If Philadelphia loses one more game and Green Bay wins the North, then the Packers will leapfrog the Eagles and become the second seed in the NFC. If the Eagles win out, Green Bay would be the third seed in this scenario.
Packers’ chance of being the #2 seed in the NFC:
- Without Packers win/Eagles loss in Week 17: 1 percent
- With Packers win/Eagles loss in Week 17: 30 percent
Los Angeles Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons
There’s a way the Packers can play a lowly NFC South team in the first round of the playoffs, but Green Bay will need to win the top wild-card spot in the playoffs for that to happen. Two games are crucial to making sure that happens: The Atlanta Falcons must upset the Los Angeles Rams while the Chicago Bears beat the San Francisco 49ers. I wouldn’t hold my breath that this will happen, but it could be relevant, depending on Sunday’s action shakes out.
Packers’ chance of being the #5 seed in the NFC:
- Without Packers/Falcons/Bears wins in Week 17: 0 percent
- With Packers/Falcons/Bears wins in Week 17: 5 percent
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The NFL did a pretty good job of scheduling this slate. Here are the kickoff times for the games that still matter for Green Bay:
- Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers, Saturday, 7 pm CT (Peacock)
- Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills, Sunday, 3:25 pm CT (FOX)
- Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, 7:30 pm CT (NBC/Peacock)
- Los Angeles Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons, Monday, 7:15 pm CT (ESPN)
If you were wondering, the Eagles vs. Bills game will be nationally broadcast by FOX. Ravens vs Packers will also be simulcast on WGBA (NBC/26) in Green Bay and WTMJ (NBC/4) in Milwaukee.
