Well, Buckeye Nation, if you are looking for a little reassurance following the news that Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin will miss at least several weeks with an injury to his throwing arm, our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook might have some good news for you. Despite the uncertainty surrounding the Buckeyes’ quarterback situation, oddsmakers still believe that Ryan Day’s team has as good a chance as anyone to win the national championship this season.
Of course, that optimism comes after one of
the strangest Saturdays in recent college football history. Not only did Ohio State knock off defending national champion Indiana, 19-15, in Bloomington, snapping the Hoosiers’ 22-game winning streak, but five of the country’s top seven teams lost on the same day for the first time during a regular-season weekend. Unfortunately, the Buckeyes’ biggest victory of the season also came at an enormous price, as Sayin suffered a shoulder injury late in the fourth quarter that could keep him sidelined for a significant portion of the remaining regular-season schedule.
So, while the results on the field might have improved Ohio State’s championship outlook, the uncertainty surrounding the team’s most important position makes figuring out what happens over the next six weeks considerably more complicated. Fortunately, the people whose literal job it is to figure these things out still seem pretty optimistic.
National championship odds
According to the latest national championship odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, Ohio State remains the betting favorite to capture the College Football Playoff National Championship, currently sitting at +470. That puts the Buckeyes just slightly ahead of Georgia (+480) and Notre Dame (+500), with Miami (+700) rounding out the top group of contenders.
For those unfamiliar with how betting odds work, a $100 wager on Ohio State at +470 would net you $470 in profit if the Buckeyes ultimately win the national title, in addition to your original $100 wager, for a total return of $570.
And, because I have to Google this pretty much every time I write one of these articles, those odds translate to an implied probability of approximately 17.5%, although that figure doesn’t account for the sportsbook’s built-in margin.
The fact that Ohio State remains atop the board is especially interesting considering the questions surrounding Sayin’s health. I would imagine that if Ryan Day eventually comes out and says that Sayin will only miss the USC game on Halloween, the Buckeyes’ odds will improve considerably. However, if the Heisman finalist quarterback is announced to be done for the remainder of the regular season, I would expect those odds to take a pretty significant tumble.
So, for the sake of the team, our collective blood pressure, and anyone who might have a few bucks riding on the Buckeyes, let’s all hope we get something closer to the former than the latter.
Big Ten championship odds
Ohio State is also the favorite to win the Big Ten championship, with FanDuel listing the Buckeyes at -130. Indiana is next at +280, followed by Oregon at +950 and undefeated UCLA at +1100.
Now, because OSU is listed at a negative number, that means that the Buckeyes are such clear favorites that you would actually need to bet $130 just to make $100 in profit. So, if you put your money on Ohio State at this line, you’d be risking $130 for a potential total return of $230. That works out to an implied probability of approximately 56.5%, meaning that the oddsmakers believe the Buckeyes have a better-than-even chance of winning the conference.
Considering that Ohio State just knocked off the defending conference champions on their home field, that positioning makes sense. The victory gives the Buckeyes an important head-to-head tiebreaker over Indiana, although UCLA also remains undefeated in conference play and could become an increasingly significant factor in the championship race.
Of course, getting there won’t be particularly easy. Following this week’s bye, Ohio State travels to Los Angeles to face USC on Halloween before returning home to take on Oregon on Nov. 7. The Buckeyes will then face Northwestern and Nebraska before closing the regular season against Michigan in Columbus on Nov. 28.
That would be a difficult stretch even with a completely healthy starting quarterback. With Sayin unavailable for at least part of it, Day and offensive coordinator Brian Hartline will have to determine whether true freshman Luke Fahey can keep the offense operating at a championship level, or if another quarterback might give the Buckeyes their best chance to keep winning.
And while I certainly appreciate FanDuel’s confidence in the Scarlet and Gray, I have a sneaking suspicion that the sportsbooks aren’t going to be the ones figuring out how to move the ball against Oregon’s defense if Sayin is still on the sideline.
College Football Playoff odds
While winning the conference championship is certainly one of Ohio State’s goals, the larger priority is making sure the Buckeyes get an opportunity to compete for the national title. And even with Sayin’s injury, I have a hard time imagining a scenario in which Ohio State doesn’t at least receive serious consideration for an at-large playoff berth.
The Buckeyes are currently ranked No. 3 in the AP Top 25, have already defeated the defending national champions on the road, and still have multiple opportunities to strengthen their résumé before the selection committee makes its final decisions in December.
In fact, I think Ohio State could conceivably lose two more games and still be in pretty good position to make the postseason, especially considering the chaos we’ve already seen across the country this season. That doesn’t mean Day’s team can afford to coast through November, but it does give the Buckeyes at least a little margin for error as they figure out how to survive without their starting quarterback.
Currently, FanDuel lists Ohio State at -650 to make the College Football Playoff, the fourth-best odds in the country. That trails only Miami (-1500), coming out of the abysmal ACC; Georgia (-800), despite somehow losing to lowly Auburn; and Notre Dame (-700), even after its loss to BYU.
Again, if not for Sayin’s injury, I have to imagine the Scarlet and Gray would be sitting at No. 2 on that list, especially considering the quality of their wins thus far. But with the most challenging portion of the schedule still ahead of them, I suppose I can forgive the oddsmakers for wanting a little more evidence before putting too much faith in Ohio State’s backup quarterback situation.
Heisman Trophy odds
While the news about Sayin’s injury has understandably dominated the conversation around Ohio State’s future, there is another Buckeye whose individual accomplishments could be directly impacted by whoever is under center for the next few weeks.
According to FanDuel’s current Heisman Trophy odds, Jeremiah Smith is still the favorite to win college football’s most prestigious individual award, sitting at -110. Miami quarterback Darian Mensah is next at +340, followed by Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss at +600.
Smith’s odds have dipped since last week, as bookies and bettors wait for more information about the severity of Sayin’s injury. And while I certainly understand why, it is a little frustrating that the best player in the country could have his Heisman chances affected by an injury to someone else.
Despite catching just four passes for 68 yards and a touchdown against Indiana, Smith continued his assault on both the Ohio State and Big Ten record books. The junior tied former Michigan receiver Braylon Edwards for the conference’s career touchdown receptions record with 39, while extending his own Ohio State career records for receptions and receiving yards.
Of course, Sayin’s injury could significantly impact Smith’s candidacy as well. The two have developed one of the most productive quarterback-receiver connections in college football, and it remains to be seen whether Fahey or another quarterback can continue getting Smith the ball with the same consistency.
However, there is also the possibility that Smith becomes even more important to Ohio State’s offense in Sayin’s absence. If the Buckeyes can keep winning and Smith continues putting up big numbers with an inexperienced quarterback — likely Luke Fahey — throwing him the football, I would argue that only strengthens his case as the most outstanding player in the country.
Not that anyone with two functioning eyeballs should need any more convincing, but apparently Heisman voters require these sorts of things.
Ultimately, the next few weeks will tell us quite a bit about just how realistic Ohio State’s championship aspirations remain. Oddsmakers clearly haven’t given up on the Buckeyes, and neither should we as fans, but I’ll admit that I’ve had a few moments of doubt since Sayin went down in Bloomington.
Whether these rather rosy odds ultimately translate into another Big Ten championship, a deep playoff run, or even a Heisman Trophy will depend largely on how Day and his staff respond to what is easily their most significant challenge of the season.
The good news is that Ohio State has already proven that it can beat one of the best teams in the country, and the Buckeyes have an off week to figure out exactly what the next chapter of their season is going to look like.
Now, they just have to figure out how to keep winning without the cornerstone of their offense. At least, hopefully, for only a little while.
