The Royals begin a nine-game homestand that could determine if they can jump back into a Wild Card spot. The first-place Tigers come to town this weekend, followed by two losing clubs – the Angels and Twins. The Royals dropped two of three to the Tigers last week in Detroit, and have lost 7 of 10 overall to them. But the Tigers were just swept by the Athletics in Sacramento and have a four-game losing streak.
Detroit Tigers (78-57) vs. Kansas City Royals (69-65) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Tigers: 4.81 runs scored/game (8th in MLB), 4.19 runs allowed/game (12th)
Royals: 3.90 runs scored/game (27th), 3.89 runs allowed/game (3rd)
Riley Greene has a career-high 32 home runs, but also strikes out 30 percent of the time, the fifth-highest rate in baseball. Zack McKinstry is hitting .355/.429/.613 against the Royals this year, but he’s just a .199/.271/.291 hitter on the road. Wenceel Pérez is hitting .293/.375/.520 with four home runs in 24 games in August. A switch-hitter, he fares much better against lefties, batting .308/.347/.585 against them this year.
Javier Báez is hitting just .217/.229/.261 over his last 14 games. Colt Keith is just 5-for-28 (.179) against the Royals this year. Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter are each 3-for-16 (.188) against Seth Lugo in their careers. Gleyber Torres is just 2-for-23 (.087) in his matchups against Michael Wacha. He’s hitting just .209/.305/.343 in 35 games since the All-Star break.
The Tigers have the fewest stolen bases in baseball as a team. The Tigers are a below-average defensive team, dragged down by a poor-fielding infield. Their catchers have combined to throw out 32 percent of base-stealing attempts, third-highest in baseball.
Chris Paddack gave up just one run in five innings in win over the Royals last week. He has 5.13 ERA in five starts since being acquired by the Tigers. Mike Yastrzemski is a career .333 hitter against him with two home runs in 23 plate appearances. He has a 5.67 ERA on the road this year. Opponents are hitting .314 against his curve this year.
The Royals got to Jack Flaherty for eight runs in five innings last week in a Tigers loss. He has been worse on the road this year, with a 6.08 ERA, compared to 4.10 at Comerica Park. He has won all three career starts in Kauffman Stadium, giving up just three runs for a 0.90 ERA. He has the eighth-highest flyball rate in baseball. Opponents are hitting just .193 against his curve with a 44 percent whiff rate.
The Royals missed Tarik Skubal last week, but they won’t be so lucky this series. He has given up just two runs in 12 innings in two starts against the Royals this year, but KC won both games. He gave up six runs in his last outing, although five were unearned and he struck out 12 with no walks in 6.2 innings against the Athletics in a loss. Skubal leads all of baseball in fWAR (6.1), strikeout rate (33.5 percent), strikeout-to-walk ratio (29.5 percent), FIP (2.26), and he is second behind only Paul Skenes in ERA (2.28).
The Tigers bullpen has been mediocre with a 3.98 ERA, although they have been better since the All-Star break. Kyle Finnegan hasn’t given up a run in ten outings since joining the Tigers, giving him a 13.2 scoreless innings streak. He has taken over closing duties, converting all five save opportunities with Detroit, giving him 24 saves for the year. Righties are hitting .190/.292/.286 against Tommy Kahnle, who throws a change-up 84 percent of the time. Brenan Hanifee has the sixth-lowest strikeout rate among relievers at 14.9 percent.
The Royals need to start making up ground, and the Tigers present a huge challenge as a team with depth and few weaknesses. The Royals need to keep their offense going and do the little things to edge a very good Tigers team that could be a serious contender for a title.
