It’s not looking good for are ol’ Giants, is it, folks? They’ve stepped in a bucket of syrup for sure with their blindingly awful play for the past two months, and after being thoroughly rinsed by the Padres, they now find themselves tumblin’ into the drooling maw of the Milwaukee Brewers, who started August with a 14-game winnng streak. GEE-YULP.
Now, some of ye faithful might be sayin’, “Wait a gosh dern minute there, partner. These here Giants are layin’ low, see, waitin’ to make their move and
pounce on the competition.“ Reasonable people would not say that, though, nor believe it, as whatever math maintains that the Giants are still alive, our gosh dern eyes and our gosh danged brains can see that this is a zombie team, shambling about the lands. These Brewers are liable to stampede this orange and black corpse and not even realize they’ve encountered an obstacle.
Their lineup is ranked 4th in value, according to FanGraphs (23.4 fWAR) — a virtual tie with the Los Angeles Dodgers (23.2). Milwaukee’s line of .258/.332/.404 is good enough for just a 107 wRC+ (8th in MLB), but they’re the best baserunning team in the sport (14.3 Baserunning Runs with 138 stolen bases — 2nd in MLB), they have the best batting average in the NL (and 2nd in MLB behind the Blue Jays), they have the fifth-best walk rate (9.1%) which is, surprisingly, just about where the Giants are (9.0%). They don’t strike out very much (20.5% — 5th in MLB) and they have great defense (+9.7 Defensive Runs Above Average — 4th in MLB). And, most importantly, they’ve scored the third-most runs in the sport (657), behind only the Dodgers (666) and Yankees (658). For comparison’s sake, the Giants have scored 515 (25th) while their recent opponent, the Padres, have scored 539 (22nd).
So, if the Giants are to survive this weekend’s thrashing, they’d better drink some moonshine and bite down on a tree branch. It’s gonna be a world of hurt!
Milwaukee’s 14-game win streak started after their young superstar Jackson Chourio hit the IL with a strained hamstring. At that point, they were 64-44 with a +95 run differential, but just one game ahead of the Cubs in the NL Central. They’re now 80-48 with a +165 run differential and a seven-game advantage over the Cubs. Seven of the team’s nine regulars have been a minimum of 29% better than the league average since August 1st. This is usually considered to be the dog days of August, but it’s been a real paws up month for Brice Turang (229 wRC+), Christian Yelich (173), Sal Frelick (169), Isaac Collins (154), William Contreras (147), Joey Ortiz (136), and Andrew Vaughn (129).
Pitching-wise, the Brewers are steady, if unspectacular. Their overall value of 13.2 fWAR is tied with the Pirates and Dodgers in the 10th-11th-12th spots of FanGraphs’ rankings, and ahead of the next two teams the Mets (12.6) and Giants (12.5); but, because wins above replacement is about more than just ERA, some fans might miss out on their team ERA of 3.56, the third-best in the sport. They get dinged a bit for walking more batters than average (3.36 BB/9 — 20th in MLB), but they don’t give up many home runs (1.08 HR/9 — 9th) and they’re really, really good at stranding baserunners (76.0% — 2nd in MLB). So, if the Giants win any of these games it will be one of those “Welp, you can’t predict baseball”-type flukes.
If you believe in flukes, well then belly up to the bar and imbibe some of these spirits for a day of binge dreaming:
Since August 1st
Jung Hoo Lee — .338/.373/.535 (75 PA), 155 wRC+
Rafael Devers — .250/.357/.528 (84 PA), 149 wRC+
Casey Schmitt — .263/.333/.491 (63 PA), 132 wRC+
Logan Webb — 2.33 ERA / 1.87 FIP (19.1 IP; 3 GS), 57 ERA- (16th in MLB)
Robbie Ray — 2.45 ERA / 3.58 FIP (25.2 IP; 3 GS), 60 ERA- (18th in MLB)
Five players against a fortress is hardly a matchup, but the Giants are putting their very best foot forward against a team that might’ve peaked at the wrong time. Indeed, after rattling off 14 straight wins, they’ve lost 4 of 6. Willy Adames hasn’t had a great month, but he might be more comfortable being a Giant that he’ll be able to be a better opponent against his former team. Admittedly, the Brewers lost very few series at home this season (the 2025 Giants are wondering what that feels like) and have a 42-20 record in American Family Field with a +64 run differential, but what being a fan even when the chips are down supposes is, maybe they’re due for a bad series??
On the other hand, the Brewers dropped 3 out of 4 in San Francsoco waaaay back in April, so they might want a little revenge. It was a four-game series that went so poorly for them that it prompted a closed clubhouse meeting. But, really, at the end of the day, the Brewers are much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, muuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuch better than the San Francisco Giants; like, impossibly better. When the Giants thought they were finally pushing the team into the Moneyball 2.0/Raysball era in 2019, they somehow fell farther behind the pack; but the Brewers, one of the first teams to jump aboard that new efficiency model never did. They’re fifth in wins since 2019 (564-434); and, if you go all the way back to 2016 (the end of the Giants’ championship era) the Brewers are still fifth in wins (819-666). The Giants? 738-746. You can see why Farhan Zaidi brought in Zack Minasian (Milwaukee’s former VP of Pro Scouting). If the Giants ever want to be good again, they should probably look to the Brewers, but not for the reasons some would have you believe.
On Monday, Ken Rosenthal published a headscratching piece about the Milwaukee Brewers that needs to be mentioned.
The team that opened the season with the sport’s eighth lowest payroll is putting the competition to shame.
There’s a lesson here, if anyone in baseball cares to heed it. The lesson is in every ball the Brewers put in play and every runner they advance, every cutoff man they hit and every extra base they take. The Brewers are not perfect […] But they at least try to play the game properly at a time when most teams place too little emphasis on fundamentals and too much on the next big analytical thing.
It’s a wild statement to open a piece with considering that he has to follow this graff with one mentioning how the Brewers began their run of success under analytics-driven David Stearns. It’s also an argument designed to reinforce caveman brain; that is, the brain that seeks to pulverize people and ideas it doesn’t fully understand. I don’t pretend to understand every graph or stat that’s publicly available, but ignorance is not a virtue. It makes sense that Rosenthal would write something that appeals to the readership, but good baseball teams aren’t run by comments sections nor longtime season ticket holders. The Giants are almost certainly being run by the latter (though, there was a time when they did read the McCovey Chronicles comments), and that’s part of why they haven’t been good in a while. The Brewers have had the pitching lab we were convinced the Giants had. They’ve managed to make the surprising trades that have electrified their roster (Andrew Vaughn being a recent example). They’re even succeeding with a former Giant as their manager (Pat Murphy pitched in the minors for them back in the 80s). They’re everything the Giants have wanted to be.
Series overview
Who: San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers
Where: American Family Field | Milwaukee, Wisconsin
When: Friday at 5:10pm PT, Saturday at 4:10pm PT, Sunday at 11:10am PT
National broadcasts: None.
Projected starters
Friday: Carson Whisenhunt (LHP 1-1, 5.02 ERA) vs. Jose Quintana (LHP 10-4, 3.32 ERA)
Saturday: Logan Webb (RHP 11-9, 3.19 ERA) vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP 15-5, 2.78 ERA)
Sunday: Robbie Ray (LHP 10-6, 2.85 ERA) vs. TBD
Where they stand
Giants: 61-67, 4th in NL West; 6.5 GB WC, 12.0 GB NLW
Brewers: 80-48, 1st in NL Central; best record in MLB
Prediction time
Win the series? Oh gosh. No way. But a game? Sure. Any win would feel like a steal. Willy Adames getting the best of Jose Quintana sure would be nice.
