The NBA Draft has come and gone, the Giannis Antetokounmpo “to trade or not to trade” question has been answered, and the Boston Celtics find themselves with just about the same roster they had when their season ended at the hands of the Philadelphia 76ers.
From Brad Stevens’ exit interview, it was clear that he was going to make some changes. “Our margin for error needs to get bigger, and at the same time, I don’t think we’re, like, way far away,” he said.
He did admit that the team has been in a similar
spot before, though, and that Boston needs to level up to stay competitive and put themselves in the best position to win. Lately it’s been feeling like those changes will be a lot more drastic than anyone expected from a 56-win team that’s just two seasons removed from a championship.
Stevens wanted the team to do a better job of attacking and pressuring the rim. It was also clear that Boston’s frontcourt was not up to par in the Philly series. He recently commented about the team’s needs after night one of the NBA Draft, saying that the priorities are size and, if possible, adding someone with speed on the perimeter.
The obvious path was to use the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception to sign either a veteran point guard or center to fill one of those needs, and then use all or part of the $27.7 million Traded Player Exception to address the other need. Brad instead was looking for a bigger swing, entering the Celtics into the Giannis sweepstakes.
By putting Jaylen Brown in trade rumors — and apparently trade offers for Giannis — it seems as though Brad has opened a can of worms. The vultures are swarming, and teams seem to think they can pry Brown away from Boston. It’s been reported by Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints that JB has not formally requested a trade at this time, and Brad Stevens has reiterated that he thinks the Jays can still win a championship together, but he also didn’t commit to keeping them together.
The rumor mill has been full effect, and several notable insiders like ESPN’s Shams Charania and Brian Windhorst, The Ringer’s Zach Lowe, and Yahoo Sports’ Kevin O’Connor believe that, while Jaylen is not being offered in outgoing trades, the Celtics are at least receptive to the calls that are coming in. Windy in particular is convinced that JB has played his last game for the Celtics already, and Lowe seems to be betting on the same, while Shams has been a lot more non-committal.
It didn’t seem like something Boston wanted to reckon with this offseason given Brown’s MVP-level year. Now it’s something they’ll have to face head on. That’s also on top of the other needs which the team hasn’t been able to address yet.
So, here’s where things stand as of now:
Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard, Hugo Gonzalez, Luka Garza, and Baylor Scheierman are under contract right now. The Celtics have team options on Dalano Banton, Neemias Queta, Ron Harper Jr., Jordan Walsh, Amari Williams, and Max Shulga due on June 29th. Boston also drafted Chris Cenac Jr., an athletic 6’10 F/C out of Houston, with the 27th pick, and Dillon Mitchell, a 6’8 wing out of St. John’s, with the 40th pick.
Cenac is expected to sign a standard deal, while Mitchell will likely end up on a two-way. As for the team options, Queta, Harper Jr., Walsh, and Williams are probably locks, whereas Banton and Shulga probably won’t be retained, at least on standard deals. With all of that factored in, Boston will have filled 13 of the league’s minimum 14 standard roster spots. They can bring in up to two more players on standard deals after that. Assuming Mitchell ends up on a two-way deal, they will also have two more of those to offer to other players.
Now, where does that leave the team?
The biggest thing on the agenda is to reckon with the fallout of the Jaylen trade rumors. Brad has to make a commitment one way or another. If the Celtics are serious about trading him, they shouldn’t rush a deal, but they need to know what kind of return they’re looking for.
Are there any players of his caliber in a different position of need that could be available in a swap? If you ask me, the answer is no, in part because of his $57 million salary this season. So, is there an assembly of players that you can expect back that works financially and addresses the needs? That’s another tough one. Through my perusals of the trade machine, I haven’t found anything especially compelling without a convoluted three-team deal, though I’d reckon that NBA GMs are a lot better at constructing these than I am.
So, if you don’t get a perfect assembly of players, can you at least get a litany of draft compensation along with one or two quality guys? That seems like the most straightforward path to completing a deal, but that probably doesn’t bring the Celtics any closer to contention for this upcoming season. And therein lies the crux of the issue. It’s not every day you find a Jaylen Brown in the NBA, so replacing his value can feel impossible for a team that’s trying to win now.
Ultimately, it seems as though Stevens isn’t the one shopping Brown, so it’s up to other teams to make an offer that at least captures Brad’s attention enough to reach the negotiating stage. It may be a while before that happens, which could improve the return for Boston, but complicate their overall construction.
Jake Fischer of The Stein Line seems to believe that the Celtics are not looking to move Jaylen unless it makes them better. That is likely the best course of action given that he has three years left on his deal.
Let’s assume JB doesn’t get traded. What’s next?
Well, we’d still have to address the areas of concern: a reliable, veteran paint presence, and a speedy guard. The free-agent market is pretty bare in both areas. For guards, Colin Sexton and Brandon Williams might be the only notable unrestricted free agents. Marcus Smart and Jose Alvarado both have player options, and Boston could offer one of them the MLE, which could give either up to a $10 million salary bump.
There are more options at center, but still nothing to write home about. Kristaps Porzingis, Jusuf Nurkic, Mitchell Robinson, Robert Williams III, Jock Landale, and Nick Richards are a handful of the unrestricted options. Walker Kessler and Jalen Duren are restricted, and it’s unlikely that Boston will outbid either of their teams, but a sign-and-trade could be on the table, at least for Kessler if the reports about him being unhappy with the Jazz have any validity to them.
The Celtics probably won’t be able to address both of their positions of need through free agency, so once they’ve made their choice, they’ll have to think about what, or who, they’re willing to part ways with to address the other. So far, the consensus seems to be that Sam Hauser is the player that a trade will be centered around, though Jordan Walsh could also be in the mix. They also have the Simons TPE to play around with and get themselves a higher caliber, or at least more expensive player, but that’s a chip for them, not their trade partner. They may have to sweeten a deal with picks depending on who they’re pursuing.
Trey Murphy III is a player who has been floated pretty frequently in these talks. He fits perfectly into the TPE, but New Orleans has always been rumored to be looking for significant draft compensation in any deal for Murphy. It’s important to note, that the TPE can be split up among multiple players. That’s created the possibility of trading for more than one quality player. Someone like Daniel Gafford of the Dallas Mavericks is an option, and would leave about $10m of the TPE to use on a second player.
The Celtics are currently $13.2 million under the tax line, and $21.2 million under the first apron. If they do elect to use the TPE and/or the full MLE, they could likely end up as a tax paying team, and will also get hard-capped at the first apron. The expectation was that they would be under the first apron regardless, but if they don’t duck the tax line, they won’t be able to reset the repeater tax. If they want to stay competitive, that’s something they’re going to have to seriously consider.
One last nugget to keep in mind: Derrick White has appeared in a few trade rumors this offseason. It’s been reported that the Celtics are not actively shopping him, but other teams were inquiring about his availability. Making $30.3 million this upcoming season, he could be Boston’s most interesting trade chip aside from Jaylen if they do want to make a drastic move. And before anyone comments — no, neither I, nor the Celtics are going to be entertaining offers for Jayson Tatum. I have no source to corroborate that, but I would bet my life savings on it. (Don’t gamble, kids.)
This is going to be an offseason of hard conversations, and even harder decisions for Boston. It’s definitely the murkiest the waters have looked since 2023, and maybe even the murkiest in the entire Jays era. Prepare your hearts. Spend time with your loved ones. Take your mind off it and enjoy your summer. Us Celtics fans have had a lot of smooth sailing lately, but the waves seem to be getting bigger. Captain Brad Stevens has the wheel, and it’s up to him to get us back to shore safe and sound.
