Date/Time: Saturday, November 1, 2025 – 7:30 PM PDT
Location: CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, CA
Broadcast: CBS Sports Network
Radio: 860 KTRB AM (SF Bay Area)
Head-to-Head: SJSU leads the series 23-1-22
Spread: SJSU
-2.5 favorites, O/U 57.5
With Hawaii (6-2, 3-1 MW) in town to face San Jose State (2-5, 1-2 MW) on Saturday night, the Spartans are a field goal favorite to win.
As counter-intuitive as that sounds, it’s either disrespectful to Hawaii or the cogs of the betting machine see and know San Jose State can just as easily be 6-1…if the Spartans could just close games out.
There’s a lot to unpack with that premise. Some easy. Some not so easy.
Each program seems interchangeable to the other with its deep Hawaiian ties and inter-relationships.
From the late great Dick Tomey of which the legacy trophy is named to Hawaiian-native and Spartan head coach Ken Niumatalolo’s childhood ties to Levi Chang (‘Bow head coach Timmy Chang’s father) to several of the SJS staff who cut their coaching teeth with Hawaii to the similar offensive philosophies to even the palm trees around CEFCU — this is a rivalry game that hits home.
Why/how is San Jose favored?
With the win-loss record disparity, Hawaii looks like the stronger team and by all accounts, the ‘Bows deserve the accolades. Chang in his fourth year is about where a team should be in its bell curve; reaching bowl eligibility already.
Ranked third in the conference in total defense, allowing 324 yards average per game, the ‘Bows have the means to slow down the fourth-ranked Spartan offense (428 yards per game) led by the top passer in the conference in Walker Eget. ‘Bow freshman QB Micah Alejado is right on Eget’s tail statistically.
Hawaii has the sixth-ranked offense in the conference to San Jose’s ninth-ranked defense which struggles to contain big plays.
In terms of a running game, both teams hold down the bottom of the conference, but that edge currently has to go to San Jose‘s bruising backs Lamar Radcliffe and Steven Chavez-Soto.
If the Spartans were thinking of throwing a big wrench into the mix, SJS can quite possibly keep their Halloween masks on and show a running identity throughout the night. San Jose State produced nearly 200 yards on the ground at Utah State before their bye-week last week.
High on everyone’s list are San Jose’s receivers of the recently coined social media moniker, “Wide Receiver U,” with the likes of Leland Smith, Kyri Shoels and the leading receiver in the nation, Danny Scudero.
If things do come down to a field goal difference, the Spartans can seemingly rely on rejuvenated kicker Denis Lynch, though the sentimental favorite has to be the “Bows kicker Kansei Matsuzawa, who taught himself how to kick by watching YouTube videos.
The margin of a projected SJSU win is via home field advantage for one.
In recent head-to-head history, the Spartans are 4-0 over the ‘Bows since 2020. The teams weren’t schedule in 2025.
Some deeper analytics show the Spartans’ “yards per point” differential is actually better than Hawaii with 17.71 yards per point to 14.54 allowed. The stat reflects overall team production efficiency.
Contextual factors like strength of schedule, injuries, home/away record and travel fatigue can also play into the spread.
But as we’ve seen this season, each game is its own living, breathing entity where logic and circumstance can escape the Spartans in tight spots. Consider too, San Jose State has been favored in more games than not.
Maybe odds makers can make out for once or Hawaii can even the all-time series just as well.
The Art of the Closeout
Diving into what most coaches would love players to truly understand — the anatomy of closing out a game isn’t just about running out the clock.
It’s obviously about collective mental, physical, and emotional discipline. It’s the layers of attitude, focus, skills, and teamwork.
Outside of pure analytics, it is the science-and-art and balance of all of the above.
Certainly, it’s much easier said than done.
When asking the all-sentient AI the question, it’s methodical responses also make sense:
1. Controlled aggression and a “refuse-to-lose” mindset
2. Precision situational awareness
3. Technical execution under fatigue
4. Synchronized belief and communication
5. “We don’t hang on to win — we finish to win.”
In San Jose State’s case, it has been about breakdowns at inopportune times, whether it be dropped passes or broken coverages.
Perhaps it’s also about too high a pucker factor as the opposition gains momentum late in a second-half and the clock can’t go fast enough, because for 90-95% of the time, the Spartans are level-headed performers.
In the balance of the closeout equation, maybe too, there is a simultaneous counter-intuitive quality to relax, then focus and focus, then relax — some might call it the “zone.”
If the Spartans find that zen zone, don’t be surprised by finally seeing a blowout win.
If the Spartans just start to find that zen and notch a close win over Hawaii, a blowout win could still be on the menu on their way to a 4-1 closeout to a bowl bid.
