I like to think of the NFL Draft as a “Choose Your Own Adventure” book. Each individual decision impacts the next. Each reach means a potentially better player falls into an extra slot. Each trade alters the sequence of players off the board.
It all amounts to an endless range of possibilities. For fans like myself, it’s the ultimate weekend of intrigue.
There might not be a team in the draft with more possibilities in the top 40 than the Kansas City Chiefs, with clear needs to upgrade at defensive
end, wide receiver, offensive tackle, tight end, cornerback, or safety. The only positions that feel completely off the board for the Chiefs in the top 50 are quarterback, running back and interior offensive line.
Through all the speculation from NFL media about what the organization could do, Chiefs general manager Brett Veach and the fan base just need to keep their heads on a swivel. Ignore the noise. Trust their gut.
I’ll follow that advice here with my personal view on an ideal scenario, a most-likely scenario and a worst-case scenario for the Chiefs with the team’s two first-round selections. For the sake of clarity and ease, I’m going to assume the Chiefs sit and pick with their current selections at no. 9 and no. 29.
Here are my personal superlatives for the Chiefs’ first-round decision-making:
Ideal picks: Safety Caleb Downs & WR Kevin Concepcion
A safety and a wide receiver in the first round? No edge rusher?
I know it sounds risky, but it speaks to the nature of this draft. Downs is a special talent, the likes of which the Chiefs wouldn’t have access to in the later portion of the first round in future years. I’m a believer in his instincts and his intelligence, especially at that position and in this defense.
Imagine a better version of Justin Reid patrolling the Chiefs’ secondary for the next decade. It sounds enticing, right? That’s what I believe Downs can be for Spagnuolo. I know most teams value cornerback more than safety, but the Chiefs have told us every turn they’ve told us they view the opposite way. It began with Tyrann Mathieu, continued with Reid and I believe the third significant investment the Chiefs could and should make into the safety position is with Downs.
Concepcion is a more prototypical Chiefs selection. He’s on the smaller side, but he’s athletic and does his best work out of the slot. Sounds like a Chiefs wide receiver to me.
Where I believe he separates himself from some of the previous Chiefs selections at the position is with his work at the line of scrimmage. I believe he can do enough on the outside to complement Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy this year, and he’s a perfect long-term fit in the offense with or without Rice in the mix. His ability with the ball in his hands is special. He’s the kind of home run threat Andy Reid dreams about.
Both of these picks would be high level fits with their sides of the football, and both bring high level football character to the roster, as well.
Most likely picks: DE Rueben Bain Jr. & OT Max Iheanachor
The most likely selection for the Chiefs at no. 9 is, was, and always will be Rueben Bain Jr.
He’s a fan favorite, and for good reason. He had an unbelievable run in the College Football Playoff and he plays a style that’s going to endear himself to fans. He’s physical, and he plays with an edge. That’s fun. It’s exciting. I think he’ll be good.
I have no idea what the ceiling will be, and that’s the fear with Bain as the pick.
What if he’s already tapped out? The most common comparison I’ve seen for him is Brandon Graham, a player with one double-digit sack season in his NFL career. Would a similar career for Bain be considered a success if the Chiefs take him in the top 10 with their lone top-10 selection in the Mahomes era?
That said, the floor seems remarkably high for a player with such an outlier physical profile. I would be very surprised if Bain is a bust at the NFL level, and avoiding that outcome in the top 10 also has real value. Ultimately, I think the Chiefs play it safe and take a talented player who fits their scheme and fills a clear position of need.
If Kansas City is going to take an offensive tackle in the first round, Iheanachor is the man. He has the prototypical size the Chiefs look for at the position, he has the requisite arm length, and he exclusively played on the right side in his time at Arizona State.
He is relatively new to football, having only started playing in 2021. It’s entirely possible he needs some time to develop before officially taking over as a starter at the next level, and the Chiefs’ current situation could allow for exactly that kind of situation to play out with Jaylon Moore on the roster. Iheanacho would then project to serve as the long-term bookend tackle, alongside Josh Simmons, for the next decade.
Going with two picks in the trenches might not be the sexiest way to approach the first round, but it could be quite effective to provide both short and long-term answers at positions of need.
Worst-case scenario: OT Kadyn Proctor & WR Omar Cooper Jr.
My biggest fear for the Chiefs in this draft is the possibility of selecting an offensive tackle in the top 10.
Aside from the feeling that it’s a luxury pick, the fear lies in which player would be chosen. Spencer Fano of Utah and Francis Mauigoa from Miami are arguably the top two talents at the position, but both carry a risk of moving to guard in the long-term.
Proctor, meanwhile, is a prototypical tackle in every way. He’s big, he’s strong, he’s athletic and he has the arm length the Chiefs covet. His flashes are special — but they are just flashes. The consistency isn’t there yet, and it could take some time to develop.
He has also never played on the right side of the offensive line, which could complicate matters with Simmons already in the fold. The upside is real, but I don’t believe the risk for the Chiefs is worth the potential reward.
Cooper is a different situation entirely. I really like the player. His best player comparison at the next level very well might be Rashee Rice. He can win on the outside, but does his best work out of the slot as a yards after catch monster.
His long-term role with this offense is easy to see, but his short-term utilization could be hindered by Rice’s presence on the roster. If the Chiefs were a team in a true rebuild, the picks are more understandable, but this is a team attempting to get back to the Super Bowl this year. I don’t think Cooper is the best selection to reach that goal.
This draft could go in a million different directions. These are simply three possible scenarios I could see playing out.
What is your best-case, worst-case and most-likely scenario for the Chiefs with the no. 9 and no. 29 picks? Feel free to comment below.
