We’ve been doing this for several years now. We reviewed some of the top free agents, as rated by Keith Law in The Athletic and Ben Clement at FanGraphs, using the contracts FanGraphs suggests they will
receive, and asked if we should sign them.
Free Agent number two on Ben’s list and number four on Ken’s list is Alex Bregman. Bregman is a 32-year-old, right-handed batter, who plays third base. Last year he was with the Red Sox, hitting .273/.360/.462 with 18 home runs. He’s above average defensively, at third, but, at 32, he won’t be above average fielding for too much longer.
Keith Law says:
After he got a tepid response in free agency last winter, Bregman signed a three-year deal with Boston with player options for 2026 and 2027. He has opted out of the final two years of his deal with Boston after a strong 2025 season that should get him four- or five-year offers this time around. Bregman’s bat speed hasn’t changed, but his approach went south in 2024 and then went back to his previous standard in 2025, with a much lower chase rate (19.8 percent, in the top 5 percent in baseball) and, not coincidentally, a higher walk rate. He’s never been an elite bat-speed guy, succeeding because he has excellent hand-eye coordination and his swing decisions are some of the best in the majors, which gives me a bit more hope that he’ll hold his production a little deeper into his 30s than the typical hitter — at least now that he’s made 2024 look like a fluke.
Ben Clement:
Former Astros are going to be a hot commodity this winter. Bregman impressed in his first post-Houston season, at least for as long as he was healthy; he missed nearly two months with a quad strain and lost a meaningful amount of power after returning. Even with the missed time and the slow finish, though, his combination of solid defense at third base, patience at the plate, and extra-base hits fueled by the Green Monster made him one of Boston’s best players on the year. As expected, he opted out of the two years and $80 million remaining on his contract (more like $63 million after accounting for the extreme deferrals in that deal).
Ben figures Bergman will get a four-year deal, at $35 million per, for a total of $140 million.
