Many solid teams will lose to UConn this year, but being a “solid team” is an adjustment for the reigning national champion Michigan Wolverines. A (not so) neutral site loss in the first week of the season might ultimately end up being a blip, but consecutive defeats — especially with one coming at home — would be a big shock following last season’s domination.
Unfortunately, that is a real possibility when the Marquette Golden Eagles cross Lake Michigan on Wednesday evening. Though games against
Mercyhurst and Detroit Mercy say very little about this team, Shaka Smart’s squad has enough history to be taken seriously, and Kenpom actually has the visitors ranked slightly higher than the Wolverines heading into this one.
A little early to call a game must-win, but the whiplash from last April would be pretty heavy if this team were to start 1-2 before games against Villanova, Louisville, and whatever the Players Era brings. This is essentially a coin flip, so a loss is a very real possibility, but this is a chance for Mike Boynton to show that even in a championship hangover year, this is still a squad to take seriously.
Marquette (2-0) at No. 20 Michigan (1-1)
Date & Time: Tuesday, Nov. 11, 7 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: FS1
These teams last met almost 10 years to the date, as Michigan beat Marquette in the 2K Classic Semis in Madison Square Garden. Five different Wolverines hit double-digits, including Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Duncan Robinson, Zak Irvin, DJ Wilson, and Mark Donnal — what a throwback. John Beilein’s crew would go on to beat SMU in the tournament final.
When will the threes start falling?
7-for-34, 7-for-28; a 22.6-percent three-point mark to start the season has been less than inspiring, with Elliot Cadeau, Quinn Costello, Roddy Gayle, and all the non-Trey McKenney shooters really struggling from deep so far. Marquette’s opponents are only shooting 16.4 percent this year, and while neither team faced has been too talented, the Golden Eagles have been top-100 in three-point defense the last two seasons too.
While Michigan does not need to be fully reliant on the long ball (and arguably should not be), threes will play a big role on this team that is not loaded with lottery talent in the frontcourt. That means that the only way forward is shooting through this slump, and the Wolverines have not been afraid to launch, taking over 46 percent of their shots from behind the arc.
Marquette has a solid defense that is unlikely to leave open a bunch of open looks. If water finds its level for Cadeau and Costello, the home crowd might surge this offense to a comfortable win, but if the cold streak continues, this could absolutely get ugly. Threes are fairly difficult to predict from game to game so I will not venture a guess as to what will happen, but it does feel like this area will have a sizeable say in the outcome.
What does the tempo look like?
Smart’s style is very clear: a fast, fast offense and a disruptive defense, consistently leading to some of the longest average possession lengths for opponents each year. Interestingly, Michigan profiles quite similarly, with the 17th-fastest offense last year and a top-60 average defensive possession length. This match of styles could lead to some chaos — havoc?! — on Wednesday.
When Marquette has the ball, the Wolverines must be ready to run. The Golden Eagles look to do most of their damage instead of the arc, and forwards Royce Parham and Sananda Fru are both efficient shooters who can grab plenty of offensive rebounds, and point guard Nigel James is a playmaker who projects to be one of the best players in the Big East, willing to move with pace and set up his teammates well.
On the other side, Michigan will face a press than is more strategic than kamikaze. Cadeau’s ball security was poor over the opening week and this year’s frontcourt does not have the trap-breaking passing of Yaxel Lendeborg and Aday Mara. The benefit is that breaking a press should lead to some easier baskets, which would be really helpful right now, but the turnover risk looms large against this defense.
Is the defense able to play clean?
So far Michigan is near the bottom of the country in both defensive rebounding and foul rate, which is an easy recipe for problems. Some of this comes from facing a team like UConn, but even the opener against Oakland was not exactly textbook. Now arrives a Marquette team that has not historically thrived in either department, but one that could certainly capitalize if given the chance.
Specifically, Parham and Fru have been great at generating second opportunities thus far, and while this would be a change from Golden Eagles teams of the past (and yet to be proven against top competition), both players seem like good fits to help in this specific capacity given the tactics of this squad. JP Estrella and a healthy Moustapha Thiam should match up well, but the Wolverines have to show they are up to the task in this area.
Fouls are a different story. Cadeau was out of control in the preseason, and fouled out against UConn, while the bigs also struggled against the Huskies. Against Oakland, McKenney and Costello picked up four while Estrella fouled out; this is concerning. Again, Marquette is not necessarily a master at drawing fouls, but that means that if the Wolverines do put the visitors in the bonus early it could end up being the difference.
