Samuel Basallo is 21 years old, under contract for the next seven-plus years, and widely regarded as one of the most exciting young hitters in baseball. After a brief debut in the MLB last season, he heads into 2026 as Baltimore’s everyday designated hitter and heir apparent behind the plate. So: what should we actually expect from him this year?
In 2025, the numbers Basallo put up in the minors were legitimately eye-popping. In 76 games at Triple-A Norfolk, he slashed .270/.377/.589 with 23 home
runs and a .966 OPS—all at age 20. Named an International League All-Star at catcher, he ranked among IL leaders in OPS (first), SLG (second) and HR (tied for second) at the time the Orioles selected his contract.
His short stint in the MLB was, predictably, a much rougher ride. In 31 games between August and September, he hit .165/.229/.330, with nearly a strikeout per game. But he did go deep four times, including a walk-off homer on September 5 against the Dodgers, the youngest player in Orioles history to do so. Moments like this served as a reminder of the raw tools that led Baseball America to name Basallo the best power hitter in the Orioles organization last season.
Struggles to adjust at the plate are entirely unsurprising for a 21-year-old seeing big league arms for the first time, which makes the question this season: how quickly will Basallo’s adjustment cycle play out? Spring stats are notoriously unreliable, but in 11 Grapefruit League games he’s hitting .310 with a .946 OPS. That includes a double off future Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander on Tuesday, which elicited a “Nice hit” from the veteran (who is also more than twice Basallo’s age). This suggests, at least, that the swing and the approach are in a good place heading into the year.
To judge Basallo’s potential from his existing track record, he enters the major leagues a career .283/.366/.498 MiLB hitter with an .864 OPS. But those numbers hide the fact that each time Basallo climbed a level, his numbers dipped for a bit, then leapt. Take OPS: an .887 OPS at Single-A Delmarva in 2023 foresaw a 1.167 mark in Double-A Bowie the same year, and a .637 OPS at Triple-A Norfolk in 2024 was followed by a jump of 300 points the next season. What’s more, Basallo’s minor league walk rates (around 12-13%) speak to genuine plate discipline, and his scouting hit grade (55) implies scouts believe he can make enough contact to let the power play.
Here are a pair of predictions for what the youngster might do in 2026:
- ZiPS: 122 G, 493 PA, 24 HR, 39 BB, .238/.304/.457, 2.3 fWAR
- Baseball Reference: 259 PA, 9 HR, 20 BB, .231/.301/.406
I find these numbers decidedly meh, maybe with the exception of the nice slugging percentage and 24 home runs from ZiPS. BRef, in particular, expects limited playing time for the O’s catcher/DH. While it’s true Basallo isn’t going to catch every day so long as Adley Rutschman is healthy, with any luck, he’ll make up a full season’s worth of at-bats at DH, which is fine. Basallo’s bat should be an everyday part of the lineup.
There remain questions about his ability to handle a full load at catcher. And while his defense behind the plate is still a work in progress, it was better than most expected in his debut. A 38% caught-stealing rate is legitimate, driven by what Baseball America grades as a 70 arm. Framing and blocking still need work, but “not a liability” is already ahead of where some projected him defensively, and continued improvement only strengthens the case for giving him more games behind the dish over time.
To sum up, Basallo’s 2025 MLB debut was short enough and rough enough that there’s real uncertainty about the timeline for his development this season, but the underlying gifts (elite power, plate discipline, improving defense) point toward a player who will take a significant step forward this year. Whether that step looks like a .231/9 HR “still figuring it out” season (BRef), a .238/25 HR one (ZiPS), or better than either of those seemingly stingy projections probably comes down to how quickly he makes adjustments to the breaking ball. Whatever happens, Basallo’s 2026 is going to be one of the most-watched stories in Baltimore baseball.
So what are your expectations for Samuello Basallo in 2026? Is this a full breakout year, or more of a transition season before he really arrives in 2027?
