Looking one month into the past
A month ago, at the beginning of October, Washington had a record of 1-3, and things were looking decidedly grim for a team that had just lost both its starting and backup quarterbacks — and then lost to an inferior Colts team in London with Commanders rookie Athan Kaliakmanis, formerly of Rutgers, being pressed into service when Marcus Mariota was knocked out of the game in the first quarter.
Dark times, indeed.
Back then, as the Commanders headed into mid-October, we asked Hogs Haven members to predict,
in the Reacts survey, how many wins Washington would rack up in the 3 games scheduled in the then-upcoming month, which would see the burgundy & gold go against the Giants and Eagles at home, as well as the 49ers on the road, with a bye week thrown in to boot.
It’s interesting to look back on the results of that October survey in which about 1/3 of respondents predicted a 1-2 record; another 1/3 predicted a 2-1 record, and over a quarter of respondents predicted that Washington would get completely shut out, going 0-3. The predicted number of wins in that poll, calculated as a mathematical average, was 1.17.
As we all know, the team actually ended up going 1-1-1, approximating the predicted number of wins in our survey, and out-performing the number of wins projected by 62% of respondents in that October survey.
Fast forward to the present
As dismal as the season may seem at the moment, if you can cast your mind back to that time early October — when fans were unsure who was going to take snaps at quarterback in Week 5 against the Giants, and nearly 30% of the fan base was expecting an 0-3 record for the upcoming month — you may come to the same conclusion that I have; that is, that the actual on-field results have improved (.250 in the first 4 weeks; .500 in the next 4 weeks), and the outlook for the 2026 season appears a little bit brighter than it did back then.
After all, Jayden Daniels has started and finished 3 complete games since that survey was conducted. And, in the 6 quarters of football played since halftime at San Francisco in Week 6, the Commanders were highly competitive vs the 49ers, outscoring them 14-3 to make a game out of that prime time contest, and they actually beat the Eagles 27-10 this past Sunday.
Sure, a lot of fans and media personalities are calling for Dan Quinn’s head one-third of the way through Season 3 of the rebuild recalibration, but the team still has every opportunity to meet or exceed preseason expectations by finishing strong, compiling 8 or 9 wins, and — given the current state of the NFC East — potentially winning the division and earning a home playoff game.
While that still seems like a big ask with the team having just 2 wins in November, Hogs Haven readers who completed the Reacts survey this week seem to think that the Commanders can win more games than they lose over the next 5 weeks, and that — with respect to winning the division — no game will be more important than the road trip to New York five days from now to play the Giants.
The upcoming five weeks — and especially Thursday’s Week 10 prime time game against the Giants — are critical to the Commanders 2026 season, and have the capacity, if Washington can beat New York and at least 2 other opponents in that slate of games, to set the team up for an exciting stretch run in the final weeks of the season.
This Week’s Reacts Survey
In this week’s Hogs Haven Reacts survey, we asked readers two questions to measure community sentiment entering the ninth week of the season. The first question was our weekly staple, asking whether you are confident in the overall direction of the team.
This week, 43% of respondents answered “Yes,” while 57% voted “No.”
The 21-point jump from last week’s mark was predictable; nothing lifts the collective mood around Washington quite like beating the Philadelphia Eagles. After struggling through a mistake-filled first quarter on Sunday night, Washington played nearly three full quarters of (fairly) disciplined, competitive football to overcome the early 10-point deficit and put away a division rival in a game that was critical to any hope the Commanders have of reaching the playoffs in 2026.
Of course, a 57% negative vote is still a clear reminder of the frustration built up from a rocky first two months, but putting an NFC East win in the bank goes some way toward soothing the unease of the fanbase.
Looking at November (and a little beyond)
Our second question turned the focus forward: What record will the Commanders compile in the next 5 games?
The upcoming slate features the Los Angeles Rams (4-4) at home before a quick turnaround trip to New York to take on the division-leading Giants (4-2-1) on Thursday Night Football. There is a mini-bye of sorts ahead of a home date against the Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) on Monday Night Football, which is followed by road trips to play the Arizona Cardinals (3-5) and Tennessee Titans (1-7).
Sizing Up the Next Five Games
When the votes were tallied for this second survey question, 10% of respondents had predicted a 5-0 sweep; 25% predicted 4 wins; 39% projected 3 wins; 17% expected 2 wins; 8% voted for 1 win, and just 1% foresaw a 0-5 collapse.
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My takeaway from those numbers is that nearly three-quarters of our community—74% of respondents, to be exact—expect Washington to put together a winning record over this upcoming five-game stretch. The single largest group, representing a 39% plurality, landed squarely on a 3-2 outcome.
Only about a quarter of Hogs Haven voters anticipate a losing record over this stretch, and just 9% foresee complete disaster with fewer than two victories. That represents a dramatic shift in tone from where things stood just a few weeks ago.
Mathematically, Hogs Haven readers responding to this week’s survey projected an average win total of 3.09 — strongly suggesting that our in-house prognosticators, who projected the win total so closely last time around, have a strong collective belief that the Commanders will go 3-2 in the coming five weeks, putting together the first multi-game stretch of the season above .500.
When you consider the sheer amount of deep concern that accompanied the team’s sluggish start, seeing roughly three out of every four voters project winning football between now and early December shows that most of the fan base still believes this roster has life in it – at least enough life to get some wins against the relatively lightweight set of opponents that Washington will face in the next several weeks.
What a winning record in the next 5 games would mean
The strategic significance of that projected 3-2 run is notable.
If the Commanders manage to win three of the next five, they would enter Week 14 with a 5-6-1 record. With five games left on the schedule at that juncture, an 8-win or 9-win season would morph from an offseason daydream into an attainable mathematical reality.
In a division that has shown plenty of vulnerability from top to bottom, being within striking distance of a .500 record by early-to-mid-December should keep Washington in position to compete for the NFC East division title. Alex Rowsey said it in as many words in the comments: “In this division, if they win 3 of those games (with 1 coming against NYG), they’ll be sitting in pretty good shape at 5-6-1 after Week 13.”
Playoffs?? Playoffs??!!
The thought process behind the projection of 3 victories doesn’t seem too mysterious. Most survey respondents who forecast a winning stretch seem to view the road games against the Cardinals and the Titans as ones in which Washington should be able to take care of business.
Arizona has struggled to string together consistent four-quarter efforts, having logged wins over the Rams, Cowboys, and winless Chargers (3 teams with a combined 7-16 record), while Tennessee sits at 1-7, their lone victory coming in Week 6 against the lowly Indianapolis Colts (yes, I remember Washington’s loss to those same Colts in London).
The linchpin game in most fans’ calculations appears to be the Thursday night trip to the Meadowlands to face the Giants. Having already tied New York in Week 5, readers see that rematch as both an absolutely critical “must have” division tiebreaker, and the most manageable route to securing a third win in the coming 5 weeks.
Conversely, the games against the Rams and Bengals are viewed with more apprehension.
Even so, those two opponents (the Rams and Bengals) are not quite the juggernauts their marquee names and preseason expectations might suggest.
Cincinnati is currently on a 3-game winning streak, but those wins came against Miami, Baltimore, and Tennessee—opponents with a combined record of 6-17. The Bengals’ other two victories came in September against Houston and Tampa Bay (combined 5-10).
The Rams, meanwhile, have built their 4-4 record by beating the Giants, Eagles, Raiders, and Chargers, four clubs that are a combined 10-19-1.
While Washington’s win-percentage is certainly nothing to brag about, when one looks deeper under the surface of simple win/loss ratios, every opponent on the Commanders’ slate in the next 5 weeks looks vulnerable.
The Pollyanna view
That interpretation was reflected in a sense of positivity across a significant portion of the community comments that accompanied this week’s survey article. Commenter Drabus, for example, captured the prevailing sentiment among the optimists, writing, “Out of these games, it’s the Rams and Bengals as the primary concern. They ‘should’ beat the other teams, but I’m sure their fans say the same things about the Commanders. I’m deciding to be optimistic today, and [predict] we go 4-1 by squeaking out a victory against either the Rams or Bengals and take care of business on the others.”
In a similar vein, DexterMonkley projected a 4-1 mark, noting that a loss will likely come against Los Angeles or Cincinnati, but that Washington can replicate last week’s prime-time success as coordinators David Blough and Daronte Jones continue to settle in.
The Cassandra view
Naturally, there is another contingent that remains unconvinced by the Commanders’ second win of the season against a depleted and demoralized Eagles team last Sunday night.
Community members like The Hogfather, LionRoars1987, and BillyBigBeer cited sloppy fundamentals, erratic game management, and killer pre-snap penalties as reasons Washington could easily end up 1-4 or 2-3 in the coming 5 weeks, effectively killing all hope for the postseason.
As BillyBigBeer pointed out, the first quarter against Philadelphia featured some of the most frustrating football seen all season, and, until pre-snap false starts and alignment miscues are eradicated, counting on multi-game winning streaks feels overly ambitious.
The Bill-in-Bangkok view through burgundy-tinted glasses
To my eye, the optimistic view is justified if you focus on the tangible progress on the field in recent games, especially against the Niners and Eagles. Beyond the scoreboard – where the Commanders have come up short far too often this season – Washington’s offense has avoided turnovers while generating several sustained, time-consuming drives in the past 6 quarters of play vs SF and Philly. In fact, for the full season to-date, the Commanders lead the league in turnover differential at +7.
On those several drives when Washington’s offense has moved the ball, it has done so via chunk plays. Daniels’ mobility and arm have kept the Commanders among the league leaders in plays of 20+ yards, masking the third-down struggles, but also reflecting David Blough’s growing comfort as an offensive play-caller.
On defense, Daronte Jones’ unit showed real resilience after that disastrous first quarter against Philly, tightening up underneath coverage, communicating assignments much faster, and limiting the blown coverages that plagued the secondary through most of the first 5 ½ games. Who knows? Maybe that is the influence of newly hired secondary specialist, Steve Wilks. In any event, over the past 6 quarters of play (vs the 49ers and Eagles), Washington surrendered just 13 points, with the only opponent touchdown coming on a short-field 26-yard drive following Chig Okonkwo’s fumble in the 1st quarter against Philly.
When it comes to the core roster, the continued emergence of young players like Trey Amos and Sonny Styles gives the defense athletic range in space, while Antonio Williams has brought juice to the offense. If the team can finally clean up the false starts and procedural flags, they have the personnel to score on offense – and prevent scoring when the defense is on the field – against any team on the schedule in this stretch.
The Commanders certainly have a lot to clean up, but to my way of thinking, the mistakes are under their control, and I choose to believe that cleaner execution will be part of the formula that sees more wins than losses in the balance of the season.
Personally, I see 3-2 as the floor and 5-0 as the ceiling for the next 5 weeks. I don’t see a single team on the schedule in the coming 5 weeks that can’t be beaten by the current version of the Washington Commanders. I’m optimistic that the Commanders will beat the Giants and add at least 2 more wins to position themselves to compete for the NFC East division title when December and January football games are being played.
What’s right in front of us: Los Angeles Rams at Washington
The 5-game gauntlet begins this Sunday afternoon at Northwest Stadium against Sean McVay’s Los Angeles Rams. The Rams bring a dangerous passing attack led by veteran Matthew Stafford, who will test Washington’s ability to cover and tackle in space with quick rhythm throws to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
On the other side of the ball, the Rams’ secondary took a massive hit this week with starting cornerback Jaylen Watson placed on injured reserve due to season-ending shoulder surgery. With Los Angeles forced to shuffle their cornerback room, Washington can lean on its rushing attack to control the clock and keep Stafford on the sideline, while testing the Rams’ depleted perimeter with rhythm throws underneath, designed rollouts, and play-action shots downfield.
For those interested in the betting lines, here are the numbers courtesy of our partners at FanDuel Sportsbook:
- Spread: Los Angeles Rams -4.5
- Moneyline: Rams -230 / Commanders +190
- Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
A key point to the current 5-week view is that, if the oddsmakers are right and the Rams prevail on Sunday, it doesn’t ring the death knell on the season. Washington can absorb the loss and remain in contention for the division crown by beating the Giants on Thursday and then adding 2 or 3 more wins in the subsequent three games.
That said, I fully expect to see a Washington win at Northwest Stadium under sunny skies and temperatures in the 60s.
As you may or may not know (depending on whether or not you’ve seen some of my recent comments), I’ll be at the Rams game in-person on Sunday. It will be the first time I’ve attended an NFL regular season game. For over 6 decades, I’ve been a TV fan; I’m hoping for (and will be rooting for) the win, but, win or lose, the live gameday experience should be lots of fun!
I invite you to join me in rooting for the upset win against a vulnerable Rams team — and keep an eye out for me in the stands. I should be easy to spot in a crowd of 60,000 people!
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