The San Francisco 49ers are coming off their first loss of the season with a massive Thursday night tilt with the Los Angeles Rams that will decide the division leader after five weeks.
While the Rams will
look the same as they have this season, the 49ers will have a different look, especially on the offensive side of the ball. One of the healthiest teams in the league, the Rams will host a team that, as usual, will be dealing with a plethora of injuries.
Just how injured are the 49ers? That’s where we start with this week’s numbers to know:
5
The 49ers offense will be without five Week 1 starters on Thursday night.
San Francisco showed they could survive without George Kittle, Brock Purdy, and Ben Bartch, going 2-0 under Mac Jones in Weeks 2 and 3. But Jones proved that having Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings was enough, hitting Jennings for the game-winning score against New Orleans and connecting with Pearsall for 117 yards in the win over Arizona.
Thursday night might prove too much for the 49ers’ offense, which will now be without Purdy, Kittle, Jennings, Pearsall, and Bartch; nearly half of their opening-week starters.
Purdy never looked comfortable moving around in Sunday’s loss to Jacksonville. That now makes sense with reports saying his toe injury might be more serious than once thought, keeping him out of Thursday’s game against the Rams. Pearsall and Jennings will also be out, both with injuries picked up on Sunday, with Pearsall dealing with a knee injury and Jennings nursing a rib and ankle injury.
The 49ers have grown accustomed to dealing with injuries over the past few seasons, but at this point, it feels ridiculous. While the offense will be with Christian McCaffrey, Jones’ three primary targets will be Dearcus Robinson, Kendrick Bourne, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, two of whom weren’t on the roster a month ago.
Oh, did I mention it’s a short week with a road game against a division rival yet? Because it is. Everything is setting up perfectly for what could be a rather embarrassing Thursday night for the 49ers.
22.1
Matthew Stafford has been pressured on 22.1 percent of his dropbacks, per Pro Football Reference.
Plenty was made about the 49ers’ pass rush’s inability to get to Trevor Lawrence in the Week 4 loss to the Jaguars. But Lawrence has only been pressured on 7.9 percent of his dropbacks this season, the lowest percentage in the league by a wide margin, according to PFR. That raises the question of whether it was just the 49ers’ pass rush, sans Nick Bosa, that was the problem, or if the Jaguars’ offensive line is truly that good.
Thursday will be a good gauge of just what the 49ers’ pass rush is without Bosa.
The league average pressure rate for a quarterback through the first four weeks of the season sits at 20 percent. If you are curious about what that looks like, Mac Jones has been pressured at the exact league average of 20 percent of his 86 dropbacks this season.
That means Stafford is pressured a tick more frequently than the league average, facing pressure on 32 of his 145 dropbacks. Additionally, with Stafford in his age-37 season and coming off back issues in training camp, his mobility has been compromised, as he has already been sacked eight times, marking his highest sack rate since the 2022 season.
With how compromised the 49ers’ offense is, it’s only that much more critical that the defense shows up with a lights-out performance. That type of performance from the defense requires a good game from the pass rush.
3
The Rams have played in three one-possession games.
The 49ers have made an early habit of playing in close games. All four of the 49ers’ games this season have been decided by fewer than eight points, with San Francisco going 3-1 in those games.
Los Angeles also sits at 3-1, and they, too, have made a habit of keeping games close.
The Rams opened the season with a sluggish 14-9 win over the now 1-3 Houston Texans. The slow start made sense for the Rams, with Stafford coming off the back injury, but even then, the quarterback threw for 245 yards and a touchdown en route to the five-point lead.
Two weeks later, Los Angeles turned what should have been a blowout victory into what’s been their only loss at this point of the season. After taking a 26-7 lead to start the third quarter in Philadelphia, the Eagles answered with 26 unanswered points, handing the Rams a 33-27 one-possession loss.
Los Angeles bounced back with a competitive win over the previously undefeated Colts in Week 7. No team took more than a seven-point lead, and the Rams finished strong by capitalizing on a few Indianapolis mistakes while scoring 14 unanswered points in the final 3:20 of the game to come out on top 27-20 to move to 3-1 entering Week 5.
Even the Rams’ lone non-one-possession game was closer than it appeared, with the winless Tennessee Titans trailing by just four points entering the fourth quarter before the Rams outscored Tennessee by 10 in the final frame to win by 14.
The short of it is that the 49ers have established a routine of playing in close games this season, whether it’s with Mac Jones or Brock Purdy at quarterback, but so have the Rams. With all the doom and gloom of the 49ers’ injuries, this might be something to hold onto entering Thursday night’s clash.
