The second round predictions worked out well for us, 3-1 and correctly predicted the number of games it would take in both Eastern Conference series to improve to 9-2 on the postseason. Only those damn Ducks confounded us, they won when we predicted a loss in the first round and lost when a win was predicted in the second. They’re out and let’s continue to try and peer through the clouded crystal ball.
Eastern Conference Final: Carolina Hurricanes vs. Montreal Canadiens
Well, from last round the funniest
thing did happen when Carolina swept the Flyers and had one of the longest time between rounds possible at 12 days from one series ending to the next one beginning. How the Hurricanes handle this inactivity will obviously be a big, glaring key about how this series goes. The contrast to their opponent is striking – Montreal, on the other hand, couldn’t be more battle-tested after winning two Game 7’s in the first two rounds.
At times the Canadiens have looked in over their heads and had the opposition carry the play. A key matchup will be the power play, Cole Caufield has eight of his nine playoff points with the man advantage and the Canadiens’ 25.0% playoff group will be going up against the stout 95.0% Hurricane penalty kill. This area is going to have to break MTL’s way to give them a fighting chance. Here’s to saying their luck at cutting it close and finding ways runs out against the strongest team in the East that won’t let the Canadiens hang around.
Prediction: Carolina in 5
Western Conference Final: Colorado Avalanche vs. Vegas Golden Knights
Mitch Marner with 18 points in 12 playoff games has to be the Conn Smythe frontrunner after two rounds, tremendous playoff for him. Injury is a huge question that hangs over this series, Vegas captain Mark Stone missed the last three games. If he’s out or limited, the Golden Knights could be facing even deeper trouble. Vegas won the ‘pillow fight’ division by taking out Utah and Anaheim – a pair of 92-point teams – the competition level is going way, way up for this round.
The goalie situation could be interesting to watch for Colorado. Scott Wedgewood was fairly rocky early in the series against Minnesota after being tremendous in the opening series against LA. Wedgewood eventually got pulled in Game 3 for Mackenzie Blackwood, who only lasted until Game 5 before he yielded the net back to Wedgewood. Colorado has rotated goalies and been comfortable doing that to find and ride the hot hand but at this point it could be questionable about how strong or long-lasting Wedgewood will be. The crazy thing is that in Game 5 when Wedgewood came back at the beginning of the second period, he only was tasked to make seven total saves over the second, third and a few minutes of OT. He did so. The Avs aren’t going to ask their goalies for a lot but just how steady it might be back there could open up things if skilled players like Marner, Jack Eichel and Pavel Dorofeyev get opportunities.
In the end, it’s the Avalanche’s time.
Prediction: Colorado in six
–
It was a rough go for Cinderella stories or hot teams trying to worm their way into long playoff runs. The most recent evolution of NHL hockey in the past two seasons is one where the dominant teams and top ones for expected goals usually end up going the deepest. A few years ago, it wasn’t uncommon to see hot teams (STL in 2019) or ones with superior coaching+goaltending combos (DAL in 2020) or complete wild cards (MTL in 2021) make it to the Stanley Cup Final, FLA in 2023 has elements of all three of those variables. Recently though, it’s basically been chalk with teams that last in the playoffs being the strongest all season long.
Playoff hockey can have a lot of noise and variance to toss out unexpected results but this year it’s impossible to ignore that Colorado and Carolina are a combined 16-1 so far in the early rounds. They were the top two teams in the league all season and have been able to carry that over all the way to the playoffs. It would take a fairly major upset (bettors have Vegas at +210 and Montreal at +225 to win the next series) for the powerhouses not to make it to see each other for the Final. Upsets can happen with regularity in the NHL playoffs, but lately it hasn’t been the case. The overall story of the playoffs is one that ties the two best teams together in their quest to fight for the Cup and if the inevitable looking collision will be in the cards.
