I don’t intend to mess with karma, as a win is a win and we will need 10 or more of them to make the playoffs. I recently reminded a coworker about tempting said karma. He had been to the casino and returned “even”, which upset him. He said that he had won the previous three trips, so a “tie” was like a loss. I told him that he had a free evening of entertainment and that complaining about coming out even, would likely see his fortunes change. It did, as he lost the next three trips. I only tell
that brief story because I am aware that complaining after a win, could be tempting fate.
The biggest thing to remember is that we are only four weeks into the season, or just short of the quarter pole in this season’s race. Many say that the season doesn’t start until Thanksgiving weekend, so that is nearly two months away. You can’t win a division in the first four weeks, but you can lose it. The Colts have positioned themselves into the middle of the pack and have not played themselves out of the race.
While I am against complaining about a win, I do think it is fair to look at strengths and weaknesses, evaluate the probability or possibility of seeing a decline, or anticipating improvement. In short, I think it is okay to point out shortcomings, even if you managed to get a win on the ledger. I am not exactly cracking the code, as many are seeing the same things that I am.
Most team conversations revolve around the QB, so that is a logical place to start. Daniel Jones has flat out turned the ball over too often. From comments, I’d guess around 1/2 would put all blame on Jones and point to past turnover difficulties, while the other 1/2 would split blame between the offensive line and Steichen’s play calling. All can be legit. Jones history does show that he has fumbled 63 times in 86 starts. He fumbled last week without actually getting hit. Can a QB learn ball security on the fly?
It is also hard not to notice that the OL is not holding up as well as it did last year. The truth is, the line has been under siege, since the Steelers made attacking the backfield work, last year. From that point, you have to determine whether Travis’ insertion into the lineup is more the cause, or is our HC/OC failing to put us in the best position to counter what has turned into Colts opponents game plan. Generally, if you can determine your weakness, you should be able to find a way to fix it, or at least reduce the negative affects.
QB play is not the only place where improvements are needed. We have to find some quick strikes. Jones needs to air it out, or find a way to punish teams that bring so many to the line of scrimmage. I hate to think that we have to wait and count on a healthy Pierce return to accomplish this. Honestly, he may not be ready to do that until next year. Marvin, Reggie, and even T.Y. found a way to get behind the defense, and with the way teams are coming after us, there has to be a way for someone on the roster to do this.
Both offensive deficiencies seem like something Shane is going to have to address. My dead horse is going to have to take another beating, because I believe that staying under center more often and incorporating some no-huddle series, would help offensive efficiency all around. When JT and DJ are both in the backfield, they are easier targets. Having the entire play clock to diagnose what the D wants to do and keeping them in their base personnel would both be benefits of the no-huddle.
How can the defense get better? We have shown some improvement, although against a bad offensive line and a 3rd string QB, but we have tackled better and need to continue to do so. Our LBs could get better with sheer reps. Davis-Gaither has 28 starts over his 7 year career. Carlies has 10 in just over 2 years and Ajiake, Boettcher, and Allen have never started. We need the game to slow down for all of them and play the best two, no matter their draft status or contract.
With Keys’ injury, we may see the same thing by allowing inexperienced Edges to hone their craft on the fly. I actually thought I saw glimpses of better penetration in the first two games of the season, than I did in our wins. I may be way off base and I know that we all see plays differently, but I do not think the DL is allowed to “win however you can win”. Lane integrity seems more important than blowing up a play or at least the timing of the play. Maybe we could just find a way to get the same kind of effort that we get from Buck. More Adebawore?
Going into the season, it was thought by many, myself included, that the secondary would be the strength of the team. The unit is not performing to that level. I think it is a group effort, as only Ward and Bynum have escaped looking bad at times. We do have to remember that 3/5ths are playing their first full season with the team and the other 2/5ths are just in their second year as Colts. The secondary is like the O-line in that they operate as a unit and there are still some lapses in assignments. In short, they are getting to know each other on the fly.
There will be no new toy brought in to save a position group. If you are hoping for a Booger McFarland such upgrade, I think you are believing that Ballard may have that option. I not only think that he needs to win the division or a playoff game to keep his job, I think he has to do it with the group he has on the roster. (I don’t think that I can put Carl Lawson in that new toy category).
As an optimist, I know that younger players can get better. Some also respond to higher pressure situations. The Colts need for both to happen. Shane and Lou do not seem to be implementing new tricks, so there needs to be physical or mental improvement from some players. The Colts can have 11 full contact practices, during the first 11 weeks of the season, so it is hard to imagine a player showing well enough in those limited opportunities, to “take” a job from someone. It feels like once the season starts, only an injury can see you lose your job, so we may not see the personnel changes that some are suggesting.
There does seem to be a little more fire on D and I attribute that to Buck’s inspired play recently. Maybe Q could work a little of the same magic on the offense?
As far as the Steeler game goes, I’ll take a win in the ugliest of fashions, as long as it does not include see any of our guys go down. As a 2.5 point underdog on the road, we may actually be seen as the better team, but not enough to compensate for having to play in a historically difficult environment. I think we can win this with a cleaner game from the offense. Moving the ball is not easy for the Steelers, so don’t give them short fields.
Has the two game winning streak changed how see the Colts’ chances moving forward?
