When I look ahead to the Green Bay Packers’ next opponent, sometimes it can take a bit of digging to find where the offense can attack the defense. I start by looking at the numbers. I typically start with
DVOA, then just click around a while on NFL Pro.
From there, I throw on the film. I want to watch at least the last two games of the upcoming opponent. Ideally I’d watch the previous four, but time is not always on my side. Throughout this process, I’m looking to match up the weak spots with the opposing defense with what the Packers offense does well. What can the Packers offense use to attack this defense? That’s the question I’m trying to answer.
This week, it was pretty easy and it revealed itself pretty quickly. DVOA has the Panthers as the worst team in the league at covering tight ends (by a fairly wide margin), while NFL Pro has the Panthers as the 7th worst team in the league at allowing yards after the catch. The film backed that up. So what does that all mean?
It’s Tucker Kraft time again.
This Panthers defense (with Ejiro Evero at Defensive Coordinator) is a well-coached unit, but they don’t really have the horses to be a great defense. The linebackers are better than I thought they’d be, but they still have some pretty major issues, and one of those issues involves playing against tight ends. And they struggle against them in a variety of ways. The entire defense does, really.
You want to run pivot routes against them? They’re not great at reacting to those.
The cousin to the pivot route – the Angle route – has also given them issues.
If you want to run a very slow, out-breaking variation to that Angle route? Buddy, they struggle with that, as well.
A lot of times, the Packers will use the TE as a late-release checkdown option. This may surprise you, but that’s an area the Panthers struggle with.
You want to attack a little deeper? How about a vertical-pushing, in-cutting route?
Or a route up the seam?
Or a deep crossing route?
I just want to point out that Christian Rozeboom is one of the starting linebackers for the Panthers. If that name sounds familiar, it’s because he was with the Rams for a few years and started 11 games for them in 2024. Including the Week 5 game against the Packers.
The run game is a slightly different matter. The Panthers are a better run defense than they are a pass defense, and their weaknesses in that area don’t necessarily align with the Packers strengths. But if the Packers are looking to attack through the air, starting with Tucker Kraft wouldn’t be a terrible idea. With the Packers trotting out their throwbacks – complete with faux leather helmets – Kraft look like a man possessed this weekend.
Albums listened to: Disasterpeace – It Follows Soundtrack; John Carpenter – Lost Themes III: Alive After Death; ROB – Gretel & Hansel Soundtrack
