The last time the Oregon Ducks visited Iowa City Matt Rodgers was in his first year as the starting QB for Iowa and had Nick Bell and Tony Stewart with him in the backfield. Danan Hughes was a freshman
(and Iowa’s leading receiver), Brett Bielema was a freshman, and Mark Stoops was in his last year as a Hawkeye. I was 9 years old. Oregon thumped the Hawkeyes pretty good that day, heading back to Eugene with a 44-6 victory in a game where Iowa was, simply, overmatched. Some of the Iowa players that saw the field that day would go on to be Iowa football legends, but on September 16th 1989, that was certainly a long way off.
I can’t say that I recall that game at all, given the timing I likely spent most of the game outside shooting hoops in the backyard or playing football with friends, but I don’t think I missed a whole lot. Iowa had a down year in ‘88 (6-4-3, remember when there were ties in football), but they had managed to push #15 Michigan to a draw. Either way, there wasn’t a lot to be excited about in 1989, at least not for a 9 year old kid that was more interested in playing sports than watching them. That, however, is not where we’re at right now.
Iowa has a fresh new coat of paint, a #20 ranking in the first CFP poll (the only poll that really matters anymore), and are fresh off a blowout of a rival. Oregon comes in with their own CFP rank (#9), fresh off an underwhelming performance against a pretty bad Wisconsin team at home, a team Iowa shut out in Madison a month ago (hard to believe that was 4 weeks ago, time flies).
Iowa and Oregon have 4 common opponents so far this year (Penn State, Indiana, Rutgers, and Wisconsin) and identical records against them, both coming in at 3-1 with Indiana being a shared loss. Oregon went to Happy Valley and beat Penn State in a Whiteout, which is no small feat, and Penn State hasn’t been the same since. That being said, Iowa was on track to beat Indiana until Mark Gronowski got hurt and were about a foot away from hitting a screen pass that probably wins the game. These are two good football teams and this will, hopefully, be a very good football game.
THE OFFENSE
Iowa’s offense may not have put up all of the 41 points they scored against Minnesota, but they looked dominant when they were on the field. The offensive line dominated the Gophers even if the total yardage wasn’t a huge number (lots of short fields). Kamari Moulton averaged 5 ypc and was maddeningly close to breaking a big run multiple times (they need to burn down his shoelaces), and would likely have had a couple of TDs if he didn’t happen to share a backfield with Mark Gronowski, the touchdown vulture. Iowa has 20 rushing touchdowns on the season and they are absolutely looking to add to that total, but they’re going to have to do it against an Oregon rush defense that is giving up just 3.65 ypc in B18 play, so it will be no small feat to score on this defense. Gronowski definitely looked more comfortable throwing the ball against the Gophers and dropped an absolute dime to Reese VanderZee for his first TD pass in B18 play, he was the driving force behind the rout, even if his numbers weren’t particularly gaudy (after all, he was only on the field for 43 plays).
THE BENCH-O-METER: CURRENT STATUS – CJ BEATHARD LEADING AN UNDEFEATED IOWA TEAM INTO THE B1G CHAMPIONSHIP AGAINST MICHIGAN STATE
Last game’s requirements: None, it may be time to retire the BENCH-O-METER for the season
The only problem here is that Oregon is bringing the #4 total defense (and the #6 scoring defense) with them in a game that will feature low temperatures and the possibility of near constant precipitation (be it rain or sleet). It’s unlikely that a track meet will break out on Saturday, so Iowa’s going to have to win this one in the trenches.
THE DEFENSE
Oregon brings a ton of talent with them to Iowa City on both sides of the ball, and Dante Moore is no slouch. He may not be a seasoned veteran like Fernando Mendoza, but the Sophomore transfer from UCLA has fit right in in Eugene to the tune of a 71.4% completion rate, 1772 yards and 19 TDs to 4 INTs, numbers that would make most Iowa fans go nuts if they were tied to someone in the Black & Gold. He’s got great receivers in Dakorien Moore and TE Kenyon Sadiq and three outstanding RBs in Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison, and Dierre Hill Jr (all of whom are averaging more than 6.8 ypc), and Davison has 10 rushing TDs on the season to lead the team in that category.
That being said, this Iowa defense has officially arrived at elite status. In their last 3 games they’ve allowed just 218.3 ypg (108 rushing, 105.3 passing) and are allowing just 9 ppg. They’ve tallied 5 sacks, grabbed 7 INTs, and forced 2 fumbles. Aaron Graves has been a monster up the middle and Max Llewellyn and Ethan Hurkett have been wreaking havoc from either end. The Linebackers have improved in leaps and bounds, filling the right gaps and the Doughboy$ have finally returned to form with Zach Lutmer, TJ Hall, Deshaun Lee, and Xavier Nwankpa all tallying an INT in that stretch. Phil has finally got his boys in the form we expected out of the gate, and it’s shown. I fully expect them to give the Ducks everything they can handle, which is good because they need to spend as much time in the backfield as possible. Pass protection is one of the few areas where this Oregon team has struggled this season (even if they’ve only allowed 11 sacks) and Dante Moore spent most of the Wisconsin game on the sideline after taking a particularly big hit that cost him about a pint of blood. Moore has tons of talent, but he’s young and still learning the system as he goes, if the front 4 can make him uncomfortable (and Phil can sprinkle in a few well timed blitzes), they may be able to cut this Ducks’ offense off at the knees the way they did against Indiana.
SPECIAL TEAMS
I’m adding this section because Kaden Wetjen should be mentioned at least once in every post about Iowa football. I have to imagine that Dan Lanning will be doing just about everything in his power to keep the ball out of #21’s hands on every kickoff and, football gods-willing, punt. It’s not realistic to expect him to take one to the house on every kick, but with the averages he’s putting up (25.7 yppr, 27.8 ypkr), he’s a threat and Iowa is going to need all the field position it can get tomorrow. He’s on the cusp of notching 1,000 APYs and his next return TD will tie him with Tim Dwight for the most kick return TDs in Iowa history, I would very much love to see him buzzing by several Ducks on his way to that record.
This is the single most important game Iowa has played in several years, a win almost certainly jumps them into the top 15 in the CFP (possible even the top 12) and sends them to SoCal on a winning foot. A loss eliminates them from playoff contention entirely. I don’t know if they can beat this Oregon team, but I can’t think of an Iowa team since 2019 that is better suited to make Kirk’s record against ranked opponents at home in November to 6-1.
The line on this one opened with Oregon at -8.5 but has narrowed to -6.5 and doesn’t seem like it’s going to move. The O/U is between 40.5 and 42.5, but the consensus prediction seems to be Oregon winning in a close game, 25-23 (that’s 48 points if you’re counting). You all know that I’m not a gambling man, but these two defenses in a cold, rainy, game screams to me to take the under (this is Iowa after all). Fox is bringing their Big Noon show to Iowa City, but the game will be on CBS with kickoff right around 2:30 pm, God’s time.
As Always, GO HAWKS!!!
