It is no surprise that Bryce Underwood’s lesser performances have come on the road, as the Michigan Wolverines’ losses to Oklahoma and USC came against good defenses in tough environments. Even in the win over Nebraska, the rookie quarterback completed just 54.5% of his passes for only 105 yards and no scores. The road is a tough place for a true freshman, so no one should panic about his early struggles.
Saturday night could be a different story, however. Yes, it is a night game against a rival,
but the Michigan State Spartans are just 90th nationally in defensive SP+ and bottom 25 in YPA (8.2) and passing yards per game (251.4). While this is not an easy environment, Underwood has some experience under his belt now, making this a great opportunity to really prove his growth over the first half of the season.
Woodshed collapse
State is not very good. Three wins to open the season against bad teams ended up meaning nothing, as Big Ten play has begun with four straight losses. None of those were unexpected, but unfortunately for Jonathan Smith, there are no clear wins left on the schedule. The Spartans’ problems are bountiful, with the pass defense especially rough. Aside from a mediocre outing by Dylan Raiola, the other three conference games have resulted in 10 passing touchdowns and zero interceptions, with opponents averaging 9.6 YPA.
None of this was unexpected. The State secondary had plenty of attrition, and one of the two returning starters (Nikai Martinez) has missed time due to injury. The safeties appear to have more talent than the corners, but with the pass rush generating just 1.4 sacks per game against Power Four opposition, the defense is just not equipped to face legitimate passing threats.
The run defense is a bit better, as has been the case for the Spartans for a while now. The Wolverines will still look to impose their will on the ground against their lesser rivals, but this is another scenario where the passing game seems to have the advantage on paper, which means shifting the run-pass mix a bit from the program’s tendencies should yield some dividends.
New year, new QB
Michigan’s last trip to East Lansing provided one of the school’s best quarterbacking performances in quite some time, as J.J. McCarthy was 21-for-27 for 287 yards, 4 TD, and 0 INT while ripping the ball right past defenders’ heads and into the hands of his tight ends. Last year’s game was a obviously different, as Davis Warren posted 123 yards on 6.5 YPA, keeping the ball safe but failing to provide much threat.
Underwood is not (yet?) McCarthy, but he clearly is already a huge step up from Warren and Alex Orji, and he could use this game as a breakout. The 2023 showdown was right at the beginning of the advanced scouting drama, and Michigan sent a message through its unrelenting dominance that night. Could the phenom post some gaudy numbers to silence his critics in East Lansing?
After a confident showing against Washington — which also featured the tight ends heavily — this looks like the perfect chance for the young quarterback to take the next step forward. It is in a hostile environment, but State is struggling and Smith has lost the confidence of his fanbase. If Underwood is given the chance to let loose, which Chip Lindsey is seemingly ok with, there is no reason he cannot post some big numbers and continue this ramp up over the next month.
