This weekend (Sat., Oct. 11, 2025), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventures forth to Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. As with many of the overseas events, the appeal here for non-local fight
fans is widely wrapped up in the main and co-main event. In this case, we’re looking at a rare case where the main event actually improved after an injury. With apologies to Rafael Fiziev, a lot of us were hesitant to watch Charles Oliveira fight a knockout artist so soon after getting sparked by Ilia Topuria. A world-class grappler in Mateusz Gamrot is much more palatable a style clash and equally relevant to the division!
As for the rest of the card, it’s a ton of Brazilian fighters, and some of ‘em are even pretty good! Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the four main card fights leading up to the co-main event:
Welterweight: Vicente Luque (+380) vs. Joel Alvarez (-500)
Best Win for Luque? Belal Muhammad For Alvarez? Drakkar Klose
Current Streak: Luque lost his last bout, whereas Alvarez has won three in a row
X-Factor: This is Alvarez first fight up at 170-pounds after failing to make 155 on numerous occasions
How these two match up: I love an immediate banger to start the article.
Luque’s best days are behind him, but the Brazilian slugger is still game. Since returning from his extended layoff and scary brain bleed, “The Silent Assassin” has evenly split four fights against a good quality of competition. He’s definitely a little less durable and a little less ferocious nowadays, which is a rough turn of events for a brawler historically happy to rely on his concrete chin.
As for Alvarez, he’s largely been a Lightweight destroyer, winning six of his last seven with the sole defeat coming to top talent Arman Tsarukyan. Of course, he was also comically oversized for the division, so he may be on a more level playing field here. Regardless of size, Alvarez is a creative and powerful striker with a very dangerous anti-wrestling submission attack.
Honestly, this is something of a mirror match. Both men like to stalk their opponents, land really hard when their foe’s back is to the fence and/or on the counter, and then finish by wrapping up the neck. The primary difference — and explanation of the wide odds — is that Luque is long in the tooth, whereas Alvarez appears to be in the prime of his career.
On paper, there’s just a year between them (33 vs. 32). However, I expect this fight to prove a sound demonstration of the difference in real age and “fight age,” as Alvarez will look much sharper from the first bell. He’s almost certainly going to back up Luque right away, and the situation will only spiral for the Brazilian from there..
Prediction: Alvarez via submission
Heavyweight: Jhonata Diniz (-112) vs. Mario Pinto (-108)
Best Win for Diniz? Karl Williams For Pinto? Austen Lane
Current Streak: Diniz won his last bout, whereas Pinto recently won his UFC debut
X-Factor: It’s two unranked Heavyweight knockout artists — chaos should be expected
How these two match up: I expect a fun fight for however long it lasts.
Diniz is an accomplished striker with professional experience in both Muay Thai and kickboxing. In the cage, he still has venom in his shots, but the rest of his game leaves something to be desired. Despite flaws in his cardio and grappling — hardly uncommon issues among the big men — Diniz has managed to win three of four inside the Octagon. Pinto, meanwhile, is an undefeated prospect fighting out of London. Standing 6’5”, Pinto doesn’t fit the usual Heavyweight mold. His style is more based in speed than pure power, and his skill set is actually reasonably well-rounded for an up-and-comer.
This match being a pick ‘em feels appropriate. Diniz’s kickboxing is the highest single skill between them and has more overall combat experience, but Pinto is younger, more athletic, and more rounded. It’s nice contrast between two prospects, which are in short supply generally at Heavyweight.
Ultimately, I’ll side with Pinto. I think he has the distance game to keep up with Diniz for a time then can slow him down with some grappling attempts. As the breathing of both grows heavier, expect the younger man’s output to remain high.
Prediction: Pinto via decision
Featherweight: Ricardo Ramos (-185) vs. Kaan Olfi (+154)
Best Win for Ramos? Aiemann Zahabi For Olfi? Jarret Wilbraham
Current Streak: Ramos lost his last bout, while Olfi has lost two in a row
X-Factor: Ramos is inconsistent
How these two match up: I expect an interesting clash of styles.
Ramos is a really slick fighter, capable of timing beautiful spinning elbows and effortless back takes. At the same time, he’s definitely been out-hustled in the past by more straightforward grinders willing to focus on more consistent work. Olfi fits that mold. The Australian TUF runner up has yet to score a win in the Octagon, but he’s a gritty wrestler with serviceable stand up skills.
Is there a chance Olfi defeats Ramos through sheer work rate and blue collar effort? There’s definitely precedent. At the same time, it would be the worst defeat on Ramos’ record by a significant margin. Generally, Ramos has only lost to really good, well-established UFC competition. He has a depth of skill that Olfi can’t really match, and he’s the superior athlete as well.
Olfi will try to force the issue, but it feels more likely his efforts run him into a counter shot or reactive takedown than longterm success.
Prediction: Ramos via submission
Featherweight: Lucas Almeida (+120) vs. Michael Aswell (-142)
Best Win for Almeida? Michael Trizano For Aswell? Dorian Ramos
Current Streak: Both men lost their last bout
X-Factor: Aswell is almost a decade younger
How these two match up: This should be a good scrap.
For better or worse, Almeida fits the classic Brazilian Muay Thai striker mold. He’s not particularly mobile on the feet and his head doesn’t move much, but he can rip powerful combinations on the front foot and kick hard. On the bright side, he also has a real nice left hook. Aswell isn’t quite as powerful, but the 25-year-old Texan throws punches-in-bunches and pushes a really hard pace.
Power vs. volume fights are always fun, particularly when neither man has great defense. The question here is whether Almeida can hurt Aswell badly enough to either 1) slow Aswell down or 2) knock him out outright. Given how Aswell walked through so many hard Bolaji Oki punches up a weight class in his last appearance, the latter feels unlikely.
I’ll side with Aswell here, because I think he does have the power to hurt Almeida as well. In a chaotic bout where both men are likely to be landing often, siding with the historically more durable fighter is rarely a bad idea.
