#NoNegativity is a choice, not really a mindset. Sure, you can look at this Xavier team with two very bad wins, a very bad loss, and no one about to walk through the door and change things and think that
this season is going to be a complete waste. Or, you can half full this thing and realize that each game is going to be a bit less fraught now. No bubble worries, no concern over where we finish in the Big East, just the hope that we can ruin a couple seasons on the way down. That could be a lot of fun.
None of us really think either of those ways, though. We look at this upcoming Iowa game and wonder how exactly the Musketeers could pull this one off. Iowa, free from the clutches of Fran McCaffery and under the meteorically rising Ben McCollum, is looking for their first tournament invitation in three years. Thus far they have pummeled low major competition on their way to a 2-0 record. They remain only 42nd in the KenPom, but their efficiencies suggest a team on the rise.
Team Fingerprint
Offensively the Hawkeyes have the 32nd most efficient attack in the nation. This is based on their shooting, because they basically don’t miss. They’ve made 66.7% of their two point attempts, basically a 30% higher rate than Xavier has been converting theirs. Iowa is also knocking down 42.5% of their threes and 79.7% of their free throws. They don’t offensive rebound at all, and they play at literally the slowest pace in division one basketball. Their offense is predicated on getting good looks, through a ton of passing, and then making them.
Defensively Iowa hasn’t been quite as good, largely because their opponents have made a lot of the threes they have taken. The Hawkeyes are currently seventh in the nation in turning their opponents over, though. More than a quarter of opponent possessions end without a shot. Iowa defends reasonably well inside the arc, but they get crushed on the defensive glass. They force a lot of isolation play, something Xavier hasn’t really seen yet this season.
Players
| Starting matchups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Bennett Stirtz | Point Guard | All Wright |
| Senior | Class | Sophomore |
| “6’4″”, 190″ | Measurements | “6’3″”, 190″ |
| 21.5/0.5/6.5 | Game line | 6.7/1.3/2 |
| 61.9/50/91.7 | Shooting line | 41.2/54.5/0 |
| Stirtz got a ton of attention as the key man in Drake’s lineup last year before following his coach to Iowa. He’s an excellent shooter who can score from all over, a good distributor, and a guy with a knack for getting to the line. He’s also a statistically solid defender and an absolute workhorse who never comes off the floor. Thank goodness Xavier hasn’t struggled with perimeter scorers this year. | ||
| Isaia Howard | Shooting Guard | Malik Messina-Moore |
| Sophomore | Class | Senior |
| 6’5”, 215 | Measurements | “6’5″”, 200″ |
| 9/2/3 | Game line | 11/1.3/3.7 |
| 55.6/33.3/70 | Shooting line | 40/38.5/72.7 |
| Also a Drake transfer, Howard doesn’t fill it up like Stirtz, but he has been really efficient so far this year. He’s also a very good defender and has the capacity to board well for a guard. As an efficient, low-usage guy who can guard, he’s the perfect running mate for Stirtz. | ||
| Tavion Banks | Small Forward | Tre Carroll |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| “6’7″”, 215″ | Measurements | “6’8″”, 235″ |
| 10.5/3.5/0.5 | Game line | 17/3.3/3 |
| 80/0/83.3 | Shooting line | 36.1/26.7/72.4 |
| Also also a Drake transfer, Banks roamed the paint for the Bulldogs, but he’s worked more on the wing on the young season. He’s a strong rebounder, especially on the offensive end, and is efficient at and around the rim. He fouled a lot at Drake and is fouling even more at Iowa. | ||
| Cooper Koch | Power Forward | Jovan Milicevic |
| Freshman | Class | Sophomore |
| “6’8″”, 220″ | Measurements | “6’8″”, 220″ |
| 8/3/1.5 | Game line | 7/3.7/1.3 |
| 75/75/100 | Shooting line | 22.2/33.3/76.9 |
| Somehow not a Drake transfer, Koch has been shooting well this year from inside and beyond the arc. He’s a good offensive rebounder who has been weirdly absent from the defensive glass. Aside from shooting, he hasn’t had much statistical impact so far this year, but his height and stroke make him a matchup problem. | ||
| Cam Manyawu | Center | Anthony Robinson |
| Junior | Class | Sophomore |
| “6’9″”, 250″ | Measurements | “6’10″”, 252″ |
| 7/2.5/0 | Game line | 4/3.3/1 |
| 44.4/0/85.7 | Shooting line | 60/0/46.2 |
| After taking a quick break for Koch, we’re back to the Drake transfers. Manyawu spent a year at Wyoming before heading to Drake and then following McCollum to Iowa. He’s a bruising big man who has devoured the boards on both ends everywhere he has been and both draws and commits a lot of fouls. He has historically been a better finisher and worse free throw shooter than his numbers this year would indicate. He’s going to do most of his work right at the rim on the offensive end. |
Reserves
Perhaps because they’ve actually taken care of business in their buy games, Iowa has gotten a solid chunk of its minutes from the bench. They’re currently just outside of the top 100 in the nation with 35% of their minutes played accounted for outside of the starting five.
The headliner has been 6’10”, 230-pound junior Alvaro Folgueiras and his 12/5/4 game averages on .750/.571/.500 shooting. He’s a transfer from Robert Morris, where he knocked down 65 threes at a 38% clip in two seasons. He can board, defend, and distribute; he’ll be a handful for Xavier’s front line. Freshman wing Tate Sage is getting 20 minutes per game so far and returning 5.5/2/1.5 for the privilege. Nothing he’s doing so far is jumping off the page, but he has been a solid contributor.
In the backcourt, former Villanova guard Brendan Housen is here to chew bubble gum and shoot threes, and he’s all out of bubble gum. He took almost 6 attempts from behind the arc per game in his last two seasons – one at Nova and one at K State – and connected at a 38.5% clip. He’s off to a slow start this year, but that probably won’t last. Finally, one last Drake transfer in the form of Kael Combs, a slashing combo guard who will spell both perimeter slots.
Three Questions
– Is this team going anywhere? Xavier has had a really rocky start, but that has happened to good teams before. Chris Mack’s one seed team beat Lehigh by three and lost to Colorado early. The team that got Duked lost to an awful Ball State team and #94 Indiana before November was out. It happens. Still, the time to demonstrate that this is a fluky stumble start is now. Lose this one huge and people are going to pack it in.
– Can anyone score in post? Bryan mentioned in our podcast (Listen here) that Xavier is self-sabotaging when it comes to scoring inside the arc. They have taken almost the same about of two point jumpers as they have shots at the rim, which is bad, and are making just 18% of their two point jumpshot attempts, which is absolutely horrid. Someone for Xavier needs to score inside, or their guards will just keep getting swamped.
– What is this team’s identity? Pitino teams are known for defensive intensity and effort. This team has both of those. They are also known for being good at defense. This team is very much not. Offensively it is hard to tell what is going on most of the time. They take bad shots, they don’t make much, and they don’t take the kind of shots that put a defense under pressure. What do they do? We don’t really know yet.
Three Keys
- –Have the stars show up. Leaving aside for the moment whether or not it’s rational to seem anyone on this roster a star, it’s clear that Xavier doesn’t have to depth of talent to win as an ensemble. Last time out, Malik Messina-Moore and All Wright had a combined 0 points at half, neatly mirroring Xavier’s chances of winning the game at that point. It’s going to take some doing for the Muskies to leave Iowa with a result; it will be impossible if the players who need to be the leading men don’t make it to the gym.
- –Don’t give away points at the line. Only three high-major teams get a higher percentage of their scoring on free throws than Iowa, who has gotten nearly 30% of their points from the stripe. Their 51 made free throws through two games is an absolutely staggering number, and their whole team has excelled at getting to the line and converting. If Xavier gets handsy and the refs are calling it, this is going to be an excruciating parade of scoring with the clock stopped for the Hawkeyes.
- –Keep the turnovers even. Both of these teams have forced a lot of turnovers early on, but Xavier has been prone to coughing the ball up in a way Iowa has not. The Muskies committed a confounding amount of unforced errors while Santa Clara ran them out of the Cintas Center. If they haven’t cleaned it up significantly in the intervening handful of days, this one will be dead and buried by the halftime show.
