The wild ride that is Logan Schmidt’s draft process took another turn today, as the high school graduate announced on Instagram that he will not sign his professional deal with the Cleveland Guardians.
It was just two weeks ago that Schmidt was drafted #59 overall by the Guardians in the 2nd round of the MLB Draft. Slot value for that pick was $1,598,900, far less than his reported asking price. In the pre-draft process, his number was said to be $5 million.
That high of a signing bonus would have
had him lined up in the top-20 of the draft, but he was no longer expected to go that high. He was, at one time, but the LHP dropped on teams’ boards after the MLB Combine due to his interviews. He changed agents going in to the combine, as well, which was odd timing considering the draft was just weeks away.
Leading in to the draft, questions about his signability began to arise, leading scouts to believe that he could end up making it to LSU. Nonetheless, his name was called on day 1 at #59 overall, prompting everyone to believe that his next step was settled and he’d be signing professionally.
Not so fast. Jason Armstrong of Inside LSU Baseball reported today that Schmidt and the Guardians never did come to an agreement before they drafted him.
For those that don’t know, the MLB draft process is far different from the other professional drafts. In the NFL and NBA drafts, organizations select a player and his rights. Pro ball is their only option at that point. Players selected in the MLB draft can opt for collegiate ball, even if drafted by an MLB organization, as long as they have eligibility remaining. So, teams and draft prospects will typically have a deal in place before the name is officially turned in to avoid situations like this.
As Jason reported, Schmidt was seeking a signing bonus equal to other high school LHPs in the class ($3-4 million). After Cleveland signed their second to last drafted prospect on Friday, they were left with only around $1.7 million in their bonus pool, clearly far less than he was negotiating for.
That gap is what has led us to this point.
What next, then? Once the deadline for teams to sign their draftees passes on Monday, July 27th at 5 pm ET, college is Schmidt’s only traditional option. He could choose to uphold his commitment to LSU or he could choose to go the junior college route.
If he chose JUCO, he could re-enter the draft next year after just one season in college and try to get his worth in 2027. He would likely show out against lesser competition, but would the maturity questions be answered? How much could be prove in a year at a small school where the players help with field upkeep? Or would it simply be a re-do in hopes that one of the other 29 teams give him the number he was looking for this year?
As for LSU, the proof is in the pudding, as they say. Jay Johnson has won two titles in his first five years at the helm for the Tigers and has had players get drafted at #1, #2, #3, #5, and #6 overall in just those five years. Kade Anderson is a former LHP who was highly ranked coming out of high school, spent two years in Baton Rouge, got drafted #3 overall, and is now the #1 prospect in the Seattle Mariners organization and blowing through the minor league system. He will be in the big leagues sooner than later.
While it’s easy to sit back from the outside and acknowledge how appealing the LSU option is, what needs to be considered is Schmidt’s age. At only 17 years old, he would not again be eligible for the MLB draft for another three years. As I was told last night, kids from California don’t necessarily grow up dreaming to play at Alex Box. That’s not to say that he would not like to, but if a kid finishes high school and is dead-set on getting drafted to begin his professional career, a three year extension could feel like an eternity, no matter the perks that come with is.
The talks of how Jay Johnson will manage his roster for the 2027 season have been prominent, but make no mistake, he would find a spot for Schmidt if he needs to.
With the MLB being out of the picture, the next deadline would be the start of school next month. An answer could come tomorrow or it could be in a few weeks, but either way, Logan Schmidt is going to college.
