The Texas Rangers enter the final week of the 2026 regular season in first place in the American League West with a 78-78 record, one game up on the Houston Astros.
One week ago today, we talked about how the 2026 Rangers were in almost exactly the same spot the 2025 Rangers were in 365 days earlier. Fangraphs had the Rangers with a 31.3% chance of making the playoffs when we did that post.
Three days ago, we talked about how, with nine games left in the regular season, the Rangers were still in the mix
after taking two of three against the Red Sox. Fangraphs gave the Rangers a 32.9% chance of making the playoffs when we did that post.
Things have changed quickly over the past week, and in particular, over the weekend. Texas took two of three over the Toronto Blue Jays, who were one of the teams the Rangers were fighting for a playoff spot three days ago. The Astros, meanwhile, got swept at home by the Atlanta Braves, with former Rangers Tyler Mahle and Martin Perez starting two of the games for Atlanta and throwing a combined 10.1 innings with just two runs allowed. We appreciate the hard work, fellas.
Cleveland and Chicago, who are battling for both the American League Central crown and the third Wild Card spot, had strong weekend series as well. Cleveland swept the Swingin’ A’s at home, moving to 81-75 on the year, while the White Sox took two of the final three games of their four games series at home against Detroit, going to 80-76 on the season.
The success of Cleveland and the White Sox have pretty much eliminated the Wild Card as a path to the playoffs for the Rangers. The Rays have almost sewed up the American League East, and the Yankees (89-66) and the Red Sox (84-72) have largely sewn up the top two Wild Card seeds. Fangraphs gives all three of those teams a 100% chance of making the playoffs, even though the Red Sox haven’t technically mathematically clinched a postseason spot yet.
The third Wild Card spot is currently held by the White Sox, who are two games ahead of the Rangers, though they have the tiebreaker over Texas, making it effectively a three game lead. For the Rangers to claim the third Wild Card spot, they would have to be three games better than either the White Sox or the Guardians over the final six games, while losing at least one more game than the Astros. That’s mathematically possible, but not likely.
Fangraphs’ playoff odds gives the Guardians a 62.8% chance of winning the division and a 34.9% chance of earning a Wild Card berth, while the ChiSox are at 37.2% and 58.7%, respectively. Fangraphs has the winner of the Central having a 97.1% chance of earning a first round bye, so both teams have something to play for, since the division winner gets a few days to rest and arrange their pitching staff while the second place team will spend Tuesday, Wednesday and (if necessary) Thursday of next week playing in Arlington or Houston to advance to the Divisional Series.
We said Friday morning that whoever lost the Rangers/Jays series would likely be in need of a miracle to make the postseason. That’s where the Jays find themselves now, at 77-79, three games back of White Sox for the third Wild Card spot, and tied with the Astros. The Jays lost their season series to the ChiSox, split their season series with the Astros, and won their series against the Guardians, so Toronto needs to have a great final week and hope that either Chicago or the Guardians collapse.
Currently, Fangraphs gives the Blue Jays a 3.6% chance of making the playoffs. The only American League teams not eliminated that have lower odds are the Orioles and Mariners, each at 0.1%.
So, long tail/black swan outcomes notwithstanding, the Rangers’ task for the final week of the season is straightforward. Win more games than the Astros in the final week, and Texas wins the division and most likely hosts the Guardians or White Sox next week. Win fewer games that the Astros in the final week, and Texas almost certainly is sitting at home wondering what if.
Among the A.L. contenders, the Orioles and Jays start a three game series on Monday, and are off on Thursday before their final three games on Friday through Sunday. Every other A.L. contender is off today and then plays six in a row through the end of the season.
The Rangers have a three game series against the Mets at home on Tuesday and Wednesday evening and Thursday afternoon, then go to Minnesota for games Friday night and Saturday and Sunday afternoon.
The Astros play Tuesday and Wednesday evening in Seattle, Thursday, Friday and Saturday night in Sacramento, and then Sunday afternoon in Sacramento. The night games are West Coast night games, so all the Rangers’ games will be in the late innings or over when Houston plays this week except on Sunday, when every plays at the same time.
The Mets have lefty Sean Manaea (4.74 ERA/4.54 FIP in 17 starts and 14 relief appearances this year) going on Tuesday, righty Nolan McLean (3.18 ERA/3.65 FIP in 30 starts) on Wednesday, and rookie lefty Zac Thornton (3.40 ERA/4.50 FIP in 14 starts) on Thursday. McLean is the most difficult matchup for the Rangers — he has a 2.62 ERA in 65.1 innings over 11 starts in the second half, and has allowed more than two earned runs in a start just twice since the beginning of July. This is also the most innings he’s pitched in a season in his career, and the Mets may be cautious in regards to how far they push him in what would be his final appearance of the year.
The Rangers have TBD as their starters for the Mets series. My guess is that the plan is to have Nathan Eovaldi start Tuesday. That would set him up to pitch the season finale on regular rest, health allowing, and the Rangers also will have a full, rested pen after Monday’s off day if Eovaldi is limited to 70 or so pitches, having not thrown more than 46 in an appearance since being activated. My guess is that some combination of MacKenzie Gore and Kumar Rocker go Wednesday and Thursday — with Eovaldi potentially limited as far as how deep into the game he can go, the Wednesday starter may be whichever of the pair they think can go the longest. For most of the season, Gore has been able to eat innings, even if he’s not effective, but he has gone 4 innings or less in four of his last five starts and is battling the shoulder/back spasms that shelved him early in his last outing. Rocker has gone five or fewer in seven or his last eight outings, and is well past the most innings he’s ever pitched in his career.
The Twins have TBDs as their starters for the Rangers series. Lefty Zebby Matthews is pitching in the series opener against the Giants today, and so would seem likely to start either Saturday or Sunday. Righthander Taj Bradley is going Tuesday against San Francisco, and could make the start on Sunday, but if he does, it would likely be a short outing, as he’s already passed his major league career highs in starts (31 after Tuesday’s start) and innings (172.1 before Tuesday’s start). Joe Ryan made his last start on Saturday, which would put him on schedule to start Friday against the Rangers. Righthander Dean Kremer (4.97 ERA/4.86 FIP in 16 starts this year), acquired from the Orioles at the deadline, started for Minnesota on Sunday and would seem likely to start Saturday.
As for the Rangers, if Jacob deGrom goes on regular rest, he’d start the opener in Minnesota on Friday. If the Rangers opt to give him an extra day of rest due to his groin, he could go Saturday, but that would mean that if the Rangers make the playoffs and play in the Wild Card Round, he’d go on regular rest in a potential Game Three, which is only played if the first two games are split. That means its possible the Rangers would lose the first two games without deGrom going at all, opening the organization up to second-guessing.
If Eovaldi is able to go on Tuesday without problems, then he would presumably start on Sunday if the game matters. If the Rangers are out of the playoff race by Sunday, there’s no reason to push him, and if the Rangers have already clinched by Sunday, you’d save Eovaldi to go on Tuesday in Game One of the Wild Card Series.
With Cal Quantrill on the injured list, the big question for the Rangers is who would start in on Friday or Saturday in Minnesota — whichever game deGrom doesn’t start. Cody Bradford would seem to be the best choice for the other game, with Jordan Montgomery available for length behind him. However, the Rangers could slot Bradford into one of the two games against the Mets, and push back Rocker or Gore. That would especially make sense if Gore needs additional recovery time.
The good news as far as the bullpen goes is that Peyton Gray appears likely to be activated for the Mets’ series, after throwing a bullpen over the weekend. Gray would likely replace Winston Santos, who was brought up when Quantrill went on the injured list. Gray was a 7th/8th inning guy for Skip Schumaker before going on the i.l., and given the state of the rest of the pen, would likely be put right back into that mix.
The Rangers could also churn some of the low-leverage arms in the pen as needed — Ben Peoples is eligible to be recalled on Wednesday, and Gavin Collyer can be recalled at any point, so if Adam Macko, for example, gets used for a couple of innings and they want a fresh arm, one of them could be pulled up and Macko sent down. The Rangers could also, I believe, send down Cody Bradford, who has options, if and when he makes his next start or lengthy appearance out of the pen, and bring up Peoples or Collyer, or purchase the contract of a Joe Ross or a John King just to have an arm to feed to the wolves in the pen, if needed.
The Astros have Cristian Javier going up against Logan Gilbert on Tuesday, followed by TBD against George Kirby. The Astros went with Ethan Pecko as their bulk guy last week after Javier’s start, then Peter Lambert. I would think they would have Lambert come back on regular rest against Kirby in Seattle on Wednesday, but that remains to be seen. Regardless, those pitching matchups have to be encouraging for us Rangers fans.
The A’s/Astros series is TBD for all four games currently. If Lambert goes on Wednesday, that would mean Hayden Wesneski would likely go in the opener in Sacramento, and Javier in the finale. The good news for the Rangers is that Hunter Brown — easily the Astros’ best starter this year — pitched on Sunday, so while he will be starting either Friday or Saturday in Sacramento, he’ll only be going in one game, and won’t be facing Seattle.
Man, I’m nervous. And excited. And nervous. This is exciting stuff.
And at the end of the day, if the Rangers win out, they get in. Let’s send positive vibes into the universe for that to happen, and then we don’t have to worry about all the rest of this.
