We just might have something cookin’ here, folks.
The 2025 Red Sox—much like every other iteration of the team in the past few years—have had their fair share of both ups and downs. Unlike those bungled seasons, though, this year’s club has yet to hit that dreaded late-summer swoon that we had gotten so used to. Hopefully these aren’t my famous last words, but we sit in the top Wild Card spot on the last Monday in August—with at least a puncher’s chance at winning the American League East, dare I
say. FanGraphs doesn’t give us glowing odds for doing so—we’re currently hovering at around 6% to win the division, but I’m not too sad about that considering that our overall odds of punching a ticket to the playoffs is at about 87%. It’s weird that those scrubs from the Bronx still have better odds of qualifying for October baseball, but I digress.
Is this team perfect? Not at all; it hasn’t been all season and it won’t suddenly become perfect in the last few weeks of the regular season. To this point, I’d primarily point to the nights where I get concerned about the lack of offensive consistency. But do the Red Sox have to be perfect to have a real chance at making some noise in the fall? Again, not at all.
We’ve made it this far—to the point where Boston has the third-best run differential in all of baseball (yell about a few blowout games here and there all you want; the sample size is big enough where this fact cannot be scoffed at)—even with our warts and all. This is a legitimately good team, even when you take off your red-tinted glasses. The rest of the American League, frankly, doesn’t present a behemoth of a challenge either. We wouldn’t be able to moon walk to another AL title, and I don’t even think you’d be able to call us one of the two-or-so favorites to represent the Junior Circuit in the Fall Classic, but the pennant is not out of the realm of possibility.
It feels good not having to dread the final push in September. Remember pennant chases? Remember getting excited for the playoffs? That was fun, wasn’t it? Why not do it again? Maybe we end up crashing and burning in the Wild Card round after two games, but we should at least give ourselves a chance at a shout for glory—barring a catastrophe in this last month-and-change.
It’s Monday Morning Brushback time, y’all.
Brayan Bello is a Genius
Brayan Bello: take a bow, my man.
The righty is having the best year of his young career in 2025, and his heroic Friday night against the Yankees could end up being his signature moment of the season. He led the way in a 1-0 victory by going seven full innings on 92 pitches, surrendering just a trio of hits and one walk while striking out five. In a massive road series, Bello was shining en route to securing at least a split of the four-game set…though we all know what happened afterwards.
Bello’s gem over the weekend brought his season long ERA down to 3.07 and ERA+ to 134; that’s damn good for the deputy to a Cy Young contender like Garrett Crochet. You can begin to understand why Red Sox fans appear excited about Brayan Bello (IYKYK).
Bello’s bread and butter on the mound is his ability to induce ground balls, and 2025 hasn’t been an exception to that; he’s enticing grounders about half of the time as he ranks in the 81st percentile in doing so per Savant. He doesn’t punch a ton of tickets, but Bello doesn’t have to be a massive strikeout pitcher like Crochet to find success if he has enough support on defense behind him. That ground ball point is something that anyone who has watched this team in recent years would know (as a matter of fact, his GB% has actually dropped from ‘23 to ‘24 and from ‘24 to ‘25; as high as that rate has been this season, he’s drawing less grounders on a rate basis compared to years past).
The thing that has indeed changed in 2025: Bello isn’t getting hit nearly as hard this season. The hard contact paving the way for compounding damage was what bit Bello in years prior. However, he’s cut hit hard hit rate from 44.3% in 2023 and 41.1% in 2024 down to 38.5% through 135 innings in 2025. That doesn’t sound like a massive change, sure, but consider that those ‘23-’24-‘25 percentile ranks for hard hit rate are 13th, 29th, and 67th. In a similar way: a mere half-percent drop in Bello’s barrel rate over the past year from 7.4% to 6.9% has seen that metric go from the 56th percentile to the 72nd percentile has played a big part in his success as of late. They’re not massive changes at first glance, but extrapolate that increased effectiveness in coughing up loud contact over the course of a full year’s work load and you’ve got yourself a damn good middle-of-the-rotation option.
People much smarter than me have pointed out that Bello’s new look pitch mix might be a primary reason behind his recent run of success. Alongside his four-seamer and sinker, he’s introduced a cut fastball to the mix in 2025—some glove-side gas to go with the arm-side fastball and your meat-and-potatoes heater. The result, as High Leverage Baseball on Twitter points out, has been a rising tide to lift multiple boats: increased fastball options, with different movements, have set the table for success with Bello’s sinker, changeup, and sweeper.
Another point that High Leverage pointed out that I’d like to highlight: Bello’s very good at tunneling his pitches.
You don’t have to be Billy Beane to know that disguising your pitches—your repertoire that has big variations in speed and break—is a desirable trait in a starter. It helps you get out in front of bats to force that shitty contact; again, that’s right in Bello’s wheelhouse.
I know we sometimes say, tongue-in-cheek, that pitching coach Andrew Bailey has his own lab to fix certain individuals who take to the bump. It seems like they might’ve unlocked something with Bello in 2025, though. It makes me excited for things to come, both down the stretch and for the rest of his tenure in Boston.
Just tell him to be on the lookout for Connor Wong next time he’s on the mound.
Shawty Got Lowe, Lowe, Lowe, Lowe, Lowe, Lowe, Lowe, Lowe
I’d like to extend a hearty welcome to Boston to one Nathaniel Lowe.
The first baseman signed a contract for the remainder of the year last Monday. I must say: so far, so good. He logged at least one hit in each of his first four starts for Boston. His homer against Baltimore on Tuesday electrified the Fenway Faithful (even if the Sox went on to drop that game) while he was able to drive in two during Thursday night’s victory at Yankee Stadium.
Not bad for a guy who was just let go by the Nationals.
The inclusion of Lowe into the mix is newsworthy on its own, though the fallout also bears mentioning. Abraham Toro’s designation for assignment wasn’t made in concert with the Lowe signing, but Toro played 68 games at first. God bless Mr. Toro, but something had to give there. Toro gave us a valiant effort in recent months following Triston Casas’ injury, but a .239/.289/.371 triple slash at first in a lineup that struggles with consistent production at times isn’t going to cut it for a team with big hopes heading into the home stretch. It’s not like he was a defensive stallwart, either, as his -4 run value at the corner infield spots has been less than ideal. I suppose it’s nice to have him down in Worcester if push comes to shove, but the time to make a change had come. Either way, the streets will never forget Honest Abe for stepping in when he did.
And to be fair to Toro, it’s not like Lowe has played like an All-Star in 2025. After all, there’s a reason why Washington dropped him. Both his bat and his glove have taken steps back over the past few months compared to the level he had been performing at when he was with the Texas Rangers from 2021 through 2024.
The difference is that Lowe had demonstrated his upside—an upside that Toro has never really been able to boast on his own—as recently as last season, both with the lumber and with the leather. Just peep Lowe’s Savant page from 2024:
I know the phrase “reclamation project” can act as a jump scare among Red Sox Nation, but at this stage of the proceedings I am more than willing to give Lowe a shot at first knowing that he’s put up the numbers that he has in the past. From ‘21 to ‘24, Lowe logged a .274/.359/.432 triple slash for a .791 OPS across over 2,500 plate appearances. He knocked 78 homers and drove in juuuuuuuuust under 300 runs (299 to be exact) in that time while earning a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove nod in the process. Lowe had a 122 OPS+ during that four-year run; the highest OPS+ of Toro’s career in something resembling a full season was 92 back in 2021. The upside conversation isn’t even close between those two.
If there were concerns about first base production leading up to last week, could you find someone with more appeal at this point than Lowe? You could contend Kristian Campbell, sure, but I think the Lowe move is shrewd and smart one.
Another thing to consider: Lowe is arbitration eligible for 2026. I think we’re a long, long, long way from answering this question, but could he be an option for the Sox to deploy consistently next season? Casas’ injury is horrible—who knows how long it will take him to get back into the swing of things. Does the rest of 2025 act as Lowe’s audition, even if it’s for a bench/depth role? That’s just a little food for thought down the line. For now, let’s hope Lowe can deepen the lineup and let’s hope we can get him his second World Series ring in three years.
The Password is “Debut”
Welcome to the bigs, Jhostynxon García! The Password himself got the call to MLB on Thursday after Wilyer Abreu was placed on the 10-day injured list.
Our organization’s number three prospect according to Pipeline and number five on SoxProspects.com’s list, García has been tearing the cover off of the ball in the minors this year. Across both AA and AAA, the 22-year-old from Venezuela has put up a .289/.363/.512 (!!!) triple slash line in 433 plate appearances. The lion’s share of that production has been with the WooSox, where he’s logged an impressive .932 OPS in 66 games. The numbers under the hood don’t lie, either, as his Prospect Savant page looks mighty fine (side note: I’ve referenced Savant numbers thrice in this week’s article—we call that MMBB Bingo). Look at those slugging metrics and tell me you don’t have a tear in your eye.
Now, has García been a bit too aggressive at the dish in the minors? Yeah, maybe, and it’s a trait that SoxProspects.com has pointed out themselves in their assessment:
Approach is a work in progress and has a fair amount of swing-and-miss in his game. Chase rate is a bit high and frequency of in-zone miss has ticked up in Worcester.
Even if García is not a finished product, I think the strides made by players like Ceddanne Rafaela recently could be a good proof-of-concept in the organization’s efforts to improve his swing decisions and—by default—his hit tool. If he can put some more consistent and competitive AB’s together at the highest level, then his natural power will do the rest. We’re talking some legit power upside with this youngling, folks.
García might only be with the big club for a cup of coffee, but it’s exciting to see him take another step forward in his career after he soared through the minors over the past couple of years. He doesn’t even have to produce right away for the Sox for me to feel good about his trajectory. To bring it back to SoxProspects.com’s write up:
Has consistently improved as he has moved through the system and has multiple pathways now to being a quality major league player…Hard worker who takes instruction very well and has developed substantially in all areas since he signed.
That sounds like a guy that’s worth keeping around and worth getting his toes wet in the majors. A few of his moonshots wouldn’t hurt in the next few weeks, too.
And by the way: it’s JOS-tin-son, according to a recording from Cooper Boardman that I found on Reddit.
Song of the Week: “Not The Same” by Bodyjar
Where my THPS3 heads at? Enjoy the music and enjoy the nostalgic gameplay.
Same time and same place next week, friends! Go Sox.
