Since Tuesday’s projection, the number of undefeated teams has dropped from five to three, with Iowa State and Vanderbilt falling for the first time this season. That’s led to a shakeup on the top line
for today, with UConn and Duke replacing the Cyclones and Purdue as No. 1 seeds alongside No. 1 overall Arizona (still undefeated) and Michigan. The other two remaining undefeateds alongside the Big 12-leading Wildcats are second-seeded Nebraska and MAC leaders Miami (Ohio), who is on seed line 12.
The Wolverines, Cyclones, and Commodores are just three of the 12 one-loss teams in Division I men’s basketball heading into the weekend. All of them are currently in the projected field.
After today’s full bracket, I’ll have a rundown of the key games to watch this weekend, with Saturday being an exceptionally busy day (and Monday having little on the schedule, thanks in no small part to the CFP National Championship game).
NOTE: Changes since Tuesday’s projection are noted with (★) for new entrants, (⬆️) for teams moving up one or more seed lines, and (⬇️) for teams moving down one or more seed lines.
(1) West (San José, Thurs./Sat.)
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Arizona (Big 12)
★(16) Vermont (AE)
(8) Wisconsin
(9) Texas A&M
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
⬆️(5) Villanova
(12) Utah Valley (WAC)
(4) Texas Tech
★(13) Hawai’i (Big West)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
⬆️(6) Clemson
★(11) Missouri/Creighton
(3) Michigan State
★(14) Furman (SoCon)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
⬆️(7) UCF
(10) Miami (Fla.)
(2) Vanderbilt (SEC)
(15) LIU (NEC)
(4) South (Houston, Thurs./Sat.)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
⬆️(1) Duke (ACC)
(16) Dartmouth (Ivy)
⬇️(8) Auburn
⬆️(9) TCU
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
⬆️(5) Arkansas
⬇️(12) Iowa/Baylor
(4) Illinois
⬆️(13) Wright State (Horizon)
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) SMU
(11) Murray State (MVC)
(3) BYU
(14) North Dakota State (Summit)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
(7) Saint Mary’s
(10) Kentucky
(2) Nebraska (Big Ten)
★(15) Georgia Southern (Sun Belt)
(2) Midwest (Chicago, Fri./Sun.)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Michigan
(16) Prairie View (SWAC)/NC Central (MEAC)
⬆️(8) Seton Hall
⬇️(9) Louisville
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
(5) Kansas
(12) Miami (Ohio) (MAC)
(4) Alabama
(13) UNCW (CAA)
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) Utah State (MW)
(11) George Mason (A 10)
(3) Gonzaga (WCC)
★(14) Winthrop (Big South)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
⬆️(7) St. John’s
⬆️(10) Texas
⬇️(2) Iowa State
⬇️(15) Austin Peay (ASUN)
(3) East (Washington, D.C., Fri./Sun.)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
⬆️(1) UConn (Big East)
★(16) Colgate (Patriot)/Saint Peter’s (MAAC)
(8) Saint Louis
⬆️(9) USC
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
⬆️(5) Virginia
(12) Liberty (CUSA)
(4) Florida
★(13) Florida Atlantic (AC)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
⬇️(6) Tennessee
(11) McNeese (Southland)
(3) Houston
⬆️(14) Portland State (Big Sky)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
⬇️(7) North Carolina
⬇️(10) Georgia
⬇️2) Purdue
⬇️(15) UT Martin (OVC)
Rundown
Last Four Byes: Georgia, Kentucky, Texas, Miami (Fla.)
Last Four IN: Missouri, Iowa, Creighton, Baylor
First Four OUT: UCLA, NC State, Indiana, Ohio State
Next Four Out: Akron, New Mexico, Santa Clara, VCU
ARRIVALS (8): Colgate (Patriot), Florida Atlantic (AC), Furman (SoCon), Georgia Southern (Sun Belt), Missouri, Saint Peter’s (MAAC), Vermont (AE), Winthrop (Big South)
DEPARTURES: ETSU (SoCon), High Point (Big South), Merrimack (MAAC), Navy (Patriot), NC State, Southern Miss (Sun Belt), Tulane (AC), UMass Lowell (AE)
Conference Breakdown
SEC (11): Vanderbilt (auto bid), Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Auburn, Texas A&M, Georgia, Kentucky, Texas, Missouri (First Four)
Big 12 (9): Arizona (auto bid), Iowa State, BYU, Houston, Texas Tech, Kansas, UCF, TCU, Baylor (First Four)
Big Ten (8): Michigan, Purdue, Nebraska (auto bid), Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin, USC, Iowa (First Four)
ACC (7): Duke (auto bid), Virginia, Clemson, SMU, North Carolina, Louisville, Miami (Fla.)
Big East (5): UConn (auto bid), Villanova, St. John’s, Seton Hall, Creighton (First Four)
Atlantic 10 (2): Saint Louis, George Mason (auto bid)
WCC (2): Gonzaga (auto bid), Saint Mary’s
My next update will come on Tuesday. In the meantime, here are some games to check out.
Creighton at Providence (Friday, 6:30 p.m. ET, FS1)
Baylor at Kansas (Friday, 8, Fox)
A pair of First Four teams hit the road, with the Bears having the stiffer challenge, given what the Jayhawks—knocking on the door of a 4 seed—did to Iowa State midweek.
UConn at Georgetown (Saturday, 12 p.m. ET, Fox)
Florida at Vanderbilt (Saturday, 2, ESPN)
Iowa State at Cincinnati (Saturday, 2, Peacock ($)/NBCSN)
Michigan at Oregon (Saturday, 3:30, NBC)
Arizona at UCF (Saturday, 4, ESPN)
Nebraska at Northwestern (Saturday, 4, BTN)
Michigan State at Washington (Saturday, 6, BTN)
Duke at Stanford (Saturday, 6, ACCN)
Purdue at USC (Saturday, 6, Peacock ($)/NBCSN)
BYU at Texas Tech (Saturday, 8, ESPN)
Gonzaga at Seattle (Saturday, 10, KHQ/ESPN+ ($))
Arizona State at Houston (Sunday, 6:30, ESPN)
There are a whole lot of challenges for the teams fighting for one of the four No. 1 seed spots—a race that’s still very much crowded thanks to the fact there are 15 teams with fewer than two losses, and several 2+ loss teams who will have a case when the lead pack inevitably starts dropping back.
Selfishly, I will be paying attention to Florida’s trip to Memorial Gym, where the Gators last won in 2022. It’s the lone meeting between Vanderbilt and 2025’s National Champs, and it might have oversized bearing on who earns the No. 1 seed for the SEC Tournament in March.
Kentucky at Tennessee (Saturday, 12, ESPN)
Virginia at SMU (Saturday, 12, ESPN2)
Miami at Clemson (Saturday, 2:15, CW)
Arkansas at Georgia (Saturday, 4, ESPN2)
North Carolina at Cal (Saturday, 4, ACCN)
Texas A&M at Texas (Saturday, 6, ESPN)
South Carolina at Auburn (Saturday, 6, SECN)
Louisville at Pitt (Saturday, 8, ESPN2)
St. John’s at Villanova (Saturday, 8, Peacock ($)/NBCSN)
There are plenty of intriguing matchups for teams in the middle of the at-large pool, though Tennessee, Virginia, Clemson, and Arkansas are in decent position to challenge for a protected seed. Louisville, meanwhile, has a profile that’s starting to show some warts given the Cards’ recent struggle.
UCLA at Ohio State (Saturday, 1, CBS)
Iowa at Indiana (Saturday, 2, Fox)
Missouri at LSU (Saturday, 3:30, SECN)
Saint Mary’s at Santa Clara (Saturday, 7, ESPN+ ($))
New Mexico at San Diego State (Saturday, 8, CBSSN)
A trio of power conference bubble games, with Missouri the lone new at-large in the field, thanks to wins over Florida and Auburn, and two key games for non-power leagues hoping to earn multiple bids. Saint Mary’s is safely in right now, but the Gaels’ Bay Area rivals really need a quality win (Xavier doesn’t count) if they want to be a third WCC bid. In the Mountain West, both the Lobos and Aztecs are chasing Utah State for the conference lead.
Buffalo at Miami (Ohio) (Saturday, 1, ESPN+ ($))
Utah State at Grand Canyon (Saturday, 2:30, FS1)
Richmond at Saint Louis (Saturday, 4, CBSSN)
UT Arlington at Utah Valley (Saturday, 4, ESPN+ ($))
Saint Joseph’s at VCU (Monday, 3, CBSSN)
George Washington at George Mason (Monday, 5, CBSSN)
Speaking of the Aggies, they travel to Phoenix to take on the Lopes, who are in the Mountain West now, in case you didn’t realize it. There are a trio of Atlantic 10 matchups (two on Monday) that might help determine that conference’s multi-bid status. Plus, the undefeated RedHawks host a bad Bulls squad, while the top two in the WAC meet in Orem.
