Y’all.
I had this very stupid idea a while back. I forget when I first noticed that some people were putting out NCAA tournament bracket projections before Christmas. But I remember looking at one of them
and seeing one of the top seeds with a horrific loss already and there they were, with one of the worst losses in the country at the time, holding a top 3 seed in their region, because, I dunno, vibes, I guess? This might have been in 2023-24 when Michigan State lost to James Madison to start the season. You can’t do a pre-Thanksgiving bracketology with that on the record and still keep the Spartans as a single digit seed, not if you’re adhering to the same bracket principles you’d use on February 28th.
Anyway.
I was expecting to have to explain this a lot more. BUT THERE’S JOE LUNARDI, POSTING A BRACKET ON NOVEMBER 11TH, ONE DAY BEFORE I HAD THE FREE TIME TO GET THIS DONE. Thanks, Joe. Thanks for putting Florida in as a #2 seed even though they lost their opener and don’t have any quality wins. I think it’s very funny that UF went out and barely got past Florida State on Tuesday night.
My plan was to do this in a somewhat serious voice and take all of this deeply seriously, but now I don’t. I can just point you to Joe’s bracket, where he has Marquette and absolutely nothing resembling a tournament profile as “First Four Out” in the wake of getting demolished by Indiana. Then, I can show you this very stupid but incredibly honest field of 68, which is just sorting the teams by BartTorvik.com’s Wins Above Bracket and making sure to include the best team from every conference.
#1 seeds
Gonzaga
Alabama
Arizona
North Carolina
#2 seeds
Georgetown
Duke
Louisville
Santa Clara
#3 seeds
Michigan State
Illinois
Iowa State
BYU
#4 seeds
Troy
Buffalo
Vanderbilt
Michigan
#5 seeds
Indiana
Utah State
Virginia Tech
Cal Baptist
#6 seeds
George Washington
Tennessee Martin
Baylor
Oklahoma State
#7 seeds
Yale
Marshall
Stephen F. Austin
Mississippi
#8 seeds
Western Kentucky
Cincinnati
Loyola Marymount
Tulane
#9 seeds
St. Bonaventure
Davidson
North Texas
Oregon
#10 seeds
Saint Mary’s
Idaho
SMU
Siena
#11 seeds
UC Santa Barbara
Missouri
Vermont
Pittsburgh
#12 seeds
Liberty
High Point
Akron
Stanford
#13 seeds
South Alabama
Wisconsin
Tulsa
Richmond
#14 seeds
Nevada
West Virginia
Northern Iowa
Colorado State/Auburn
#15 seeds
Saint Louis/Houston
Elon
Youngstown State
Mercyhurst
#16 seeds
Grambling State
Mercer
North Florida/Boston University
Oral Roberts/Maryland Eastern Shore
YES, YOU READ THAT RIGHT. Because we’re going by Wins Above Bracket — because we won’t have NET rankings for a month and how else are we going to sort these teams — the last at-large bids have fallen alllllllllll the way down to a #14 seed and a #15 seed. It landed very neatly with Colorado State coming up where the last #14 seed would be, so a simple perfect divide of two there and two as the top #15 seed. This is what happens when autobids out of the Sun Belt and the MAC are #4 seeds. And right now, because Troy has top 150 wins over Kent State and Furman, and because Buffalo punched DePaul right in the face on Tuesday night, they have the quality wins relative to the rest of the country to deserve to be there.
If you are being honest about what “IF THE TOURNAMENT STARTED TODAY!” should look like when you publish a bracketology before the NCAA publishes the NET, much less before Christmas, much less before January 1st, this is what it should look like. You should not have Florida, a team with a negative WAB and a ranking of #117 in the country as a #2 seed. If you’re basing it on “who did you beat and where did you beat them?” and not “But I like this team!” this is the bracket that you get.
Accept no substitutes.
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