How about that 18 point Alabama victory over LSU in Baton Rouge? I hope if you bet that you made a nice little killing on that game. It was absurd to think Bama was almost a touchdown underdog in Bryant-Denny-Bayou Stadium. The last time Alabama lost a game in the Tigers’ stadium by that spread was 2006 with Mike Shula as the head coach.
The win was a huge hurdle for the Crimson Tide on the season, buit there are more games to be decided. Vanderbilt’s season has not gone as they had hoped but they did
pick up their first SEC win and did so on the road against the reeling Mississippi State Bulldogs. The Commodores are 4-5 but finish the season at home vs Alabama and Tennessee, and on the road at Florida. They are in desperation mode.
The Bama-Vandy game was one of the few opponents that the sportsbooks did not lay a line for in the preseason. This week FanDuel has odds of Alabama being a 19.5 point favorite with an Over/Under of 54.5.
VANDY
The Commodores started out with some weak wins over some cupcakes. Then came a miracle win over NC State that pushed the cover from under to over. Vandy has been roughed up a bit in SEC play, having yet to score over 21 points in league play. The ‘Dores kept it close at Auburn and then hung with Georgia for a half, but went scoreless in the second half. I suppose those last two results convinced Las Vegas that VU could hang with almost anyone in the conference. Thus, they foolishly set the Ole Miss line WAY too low and the Rebels routed them.
In a rare moment, Vandy was favored at home against Arkansas. That one did not go so well. Kentucky was only favored by ten with the Wildcats winning by 17. Then came this past weekend in Starkville. It made sense that they were a field goal underdog, but who knew MSU was s broken?
- Sep 5 Austin Peay -28.5 / 57.5, Won 28-9 (-19 final spread, 37 total pts.), Lost / Under
- Sep 12 Delaware -20.5 / 54.5, Won 35-26 (-9, 61), Lost / Over
- Sep 19 NC State -3 / 50.5, Won 35-31 (-4, 66), Won / Over
- Sep 26 @Auburn +9.5 / 54.5, Lost 15-21 (+6, 36), Won / Under
- Oct 3 @Georgia +25.5 / 49.5, Lost 14-38 (+24, 52), Won / Over
- Oct 10 Ole Miss +9.5 / 54.5, Lost 17-52 (+35, 69), Lost / Over
- Oct 17 Arkansas -5.5 / 48.5, Lost 21-31 (+10, 52), Lost / Over
- Oct 24 @Kentucky +10 / 51.5, Lost 17-34 (+17, 51), Lost / Under
- Nov 7 @Mississippi State +3 / 48.5 Won 25-23 (-2, 48), Won / Under
The Over/Unders for Vandy have been all over the place. On more observation is that Vanderbilt has at the very least scored double-digits. So here we are again with the Commodores being a big underdog, but is it big enough?
ALABAMA
The Las Vegas made the Tide the dog for the first time this season and paid the price.
- Sep 5 vs East Carolina: -29.5/52.5, Won 48-10 (-38, 58), Won/Over
- Sep 12 at Kentucky: -10.5/47.5, Won 45-17 (-28, 62), Won/Over
- Sep 19 vs Florida State: -19.5 / 50.5, Won 50-36 (-14, 86), Lost / Over
- Sep 26 vs South Carolina: -12.5 / 53.5, Won 49-18 (-31, 67), Won / Over
- Oct 3 at Mississippi State: -4.5 / 63.5, Won 56-23 (-33, 59), Won / Over
- Oct 10 vs Georgia -1.5 / 51.5, Lost 17-20 (+3, 37), Lost / Under
- Oct 17 at Tennessee -8.5 / 51.5, Lost 10-26 (+16, 36), Lost / Under
- Oct 24 vs Texas A&M -13.5 / 49.5, Won 31-20 (-9, 51), Lost / Over
- Nov 7 at LSU +6.5 / 53.5, Won 31-13 (-18, 44), Won / Under
Over the first five weeks of the season, betting over on the Crimson Tide numbers was a pretty good bet. While everyone figured the showdown with Georgia would be a close one, there were not too many people who would have expected the outcome of the Alabama-Tennessee showdown. Against the Aggies, Bama struggled for three quarters and finally turned that switch back on for the final 15 or so minutes.
As I posited in the previous “Cover or Not” post, the Tigers favored by such a high number seemed a bit high. I certainly did not expect a Bama blowout. I also thought the point totals seemed pretty high.
Alabama is now 3-1 on the road with three high-scoring wins including Kentucky’s only loss of the season at home. The win in Starkville came against star QB Kamario Taylor until he left the game late with an injury and has not been back outside of one fill-fated quarter against LSU. The Tennessee loss for Alabama was dreadful for the Tide, but overall their resume looks pretty solid.
With key Alabama players back receiver Ryan Williams, center Racin Delgatty, and defensive tackle Terrance Green back in the starting lineup, the Crimson Tide looks like a much better team. There is not much reason to think that the ‘Dores can pull the upset in Nashville on Saturday. Picking Bama is the easy part. Figuring out the spread and Over/Under are much more difficult.
MATH
With an over/under of 54.5 and 19.5 point spread by FanDuel, the final score could look something like LSU winning 37-17. Does that sound accurate?
The Alabama offense should put up some big numbers. Can Vandy counter? The Tide defense just held LSU to 13. Is there any reason to think the Commodores can keep it as close at three touchdowns.
At the risk of looking like a Gump, I’m thinking the Crimson Tide sores in the 50s. They probably don’t pitch a shutout but they won’t give up too many score either. I am going with 52-13. That would be a cover and Over. What say you? Let me have it in Comments.
