Per ESPN’s Shams Charania, the NBA has passed a number of changes to the NBA Draft Lottery, effective for the upcoming 2026-27 season and lasting through at least 2029.
The “3-2-1” lottery moniker is a slight
misnomer, as the bottom three teams will receive “2” lottery balls each. Spots four through 10 will receive “3” lottery balls each. The 9-vs-10 game teams will also receive “2” lottery balls each, and the losers of the 7-vs-8 games will receive “1” ball each. I guess the “2-3-2-1” lottery isn’t as catchy a title.
The lottery expanding from 14 to 16 teams is a significant change, as now teams can actually split the difference by making the playoffs and getting a chance in the lottery. The losers of the 7-vs-8 games will receive one lottery ball each, and the 9-vs-10 teams receive two lottery balls, so the two teams who win the second round of the Play-In Tournament (i.e. loser of 7-vs-8 vs. winner of 9-vs-10) will get to be in the playoffs and remain in the lottery. Basically, advancing to the playoffs from the 9- or 10-spot would grant you the same lottery odds as the worst team in the league.
Additionally, no one will be able to win the first overall pick in consecutive years or have three consecutive top-five picks. The vote passed 29-1, with the Memphis Grizzlies the only vote against.
Critics of this reform have argued this will actually lead to more tanking, as the four through 10 group is even more of an advantage than it was previously. You could imagine scenarios where teams tank even earlier to ensure they’re in that group, or tank extremely hard down the stretch to drop from the 11th or 12th spot to 10th. It also gets harder for teams that are just plain bad, not due to tanking, to life themselves out of it, which was the whole point of a draft lottery system in the first place.
What do you think? For, against, or indifferent on the new system?
