In a season full of ups and downs (more downs than ups), the Dallas Mavericks (15-25) surprisingly find themselves leading the season series 2-0 against the Denver Nuggets (27-13). As the West’s third-best
team comes to town, Dallas finds itself on the outside looking in, 2.5 games out of the last play-in spot.
In the previous matchups, one each in Denver and Dallas, the Nuggets had both three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic and wingman Jamal Murray available and in the starting lineup. This game may only feature Murray, who is listed as questionable due to a nagging left ankle sprain and illness. He did play in Tuesday night’s win against the New Orleans Pelicans, putting up game-highs 35 points and 9 assists. Jokic likely won’t see the court until February due to a hyperextended knee he suffered on December 29 against the Miami Heat. Neither of the matchups had Aaron Gordon, who was recovering from a hamstring strain. His availability for the game remains to be determined.
Still, there are plenty of storylines in the Wednesday night Mavs-Nuggets matchup. Here are three things to watch for as Dallas tries to string together some home wins, this being the second game of four in a row at the American Airlines Center.
Potent Nuggets offense
If you’re missing a three-time MVP, you won’t be as good, period. The Nuggets were 23-9 when Jokic went down, and are 4-4 since. Not horrible, but not great. Jamal Murray’s absence as of late hasn’t been an easy hurdle to jump either, but the Nuggets are still competing. Denver is one of the deepest teams in the league and it shows, even without their stars.
Outside of Jokic and Murray, the Nuggets have four players who score in double figures: Aaron Gordon (18.4 ppg), Tim Hardaway Jr. (13.8 ppg) Peyton Watson (13.2 ppg), and Cam Johnson (11.7 ppg). Although Jokic is the engine of the NBA’s best offense at 122.7 points per game, the balanced offensive attack from Denver is what makes them so dangerous. The Nuggets lead the NBA in three-point percentage at 40.2% on 35.1 attempts per game. So, they’re going to shoot a lot of threes and they’re going to make a lot of threes. In comparison, the Mavericks are 25th in the NBA in three-point percentage at 34% on 31.9 attempts per game. That isn’t a math equation that leads to wins for Dallas.
Even without Jokic, Dallas will have to be disciplined in guarding the 3-point line. Their inability to consistently make 3-pointers on offense makes it hard for them to win when opponents get hot from behind the line. They don’t have to win the 3-point battle, but they need to stay close. Klay Thompson, Max Christie, and even Cooper Flagg have been shooting the ball well from downtown as of late. Head Coach Jason Kidd has been adamant about Dallas taking more threes, in particular Max Christie, who is eighth in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage at 45.9%. With little inside presence without Anthony Davis, Dallas will have to keep up from deep.
Jury still out on Moussa Cisse
The trade deadline is in three weeks and one of the likely departures from Dallas is Daniel Gafford. Anthony Davis is out for several months and Lively II for the year. The Dallas frontcourt is running thin. As the Mavericks prepare to reset the table with the roster, it’s believed they hope to find enough financial flexibility to sign two-way players Ryan Nembhard and Moussa Cisse.
We’re starting to get a better idea of Ryan Nembhard’s game, but the jury is still out on Cisse. He’s a 6’11, 220-pound energizer bunny who can finish at the rim and grab his fair share of rebounds. He’s coming off a 2-point, 6-rebound performance against the Nets, and previously had 5 points and 10 rebounds against the Bulls. Both of these performances were in limited minutes, 12 against the Nets and 19 against the Bulls. The Nuggets are depleted at the center position with both Jokic and Valanciunas out. Cisse could see a bigger role against the Nuggets on Wednesday night. Although his season averages of 3.0 points per game and 3.9 rebounds, his energy is much needed on a Dallas team looking for answers in the middle.
Cooper Flagg’s touch
It’s hard to be critical of a 19-year-old rookie who’s averaging 19.1 points per game, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.3 assists on 48% shooting. But if there’s ONE thing to nit-pick about Cooper Flagg, it’s his t3-point shooting. Although his shot has improved, his accuracy from distance still needs work. He’s shooting 29.3% from three on the season, but trending in the right direction. Since his breakout 33-point, 9 rebound, 9 assist game against the Nuggets on December 23, where he hit 4-of-6 from three, Flagg has been shooting it much better. In his last 10 games, he’s shooting 42% from beyond the arc.
Denver plays long, athletic wings like Peyton Watson, Spencer Jones, and even Aaron Gordon, who can make life difficult for Flagg, but he didn’t seem to be bothered by them in the last matchup. If Flagg is hitting his outside jumper, Nuggets defenders will have to concede that he’s having a good shooting night or go over the top of screens, which opens up the floor for Flagg in a whole different way.
If he starts to knock down that 3-ball consistently, he’ll be virtually unstoppable. And don’t forget, he’s only 19.
How to watch
No matter who Denver puts on the court, the Mavs will still have their hands full. But in a season where everything goes wrong and nothing makes sense, it would make perfect sense for the Mavs to push their record to 3-0 against the Nuggets. The 3-point shooting battle will tell the story. If the Mavs can compete from behind the arc, they’ll give themselves a good chance to stay undefeated against Denver.
Tip-off is set for 8:30 PM on ESPN, and the game can also be streamed on Peacock and NBA League Pass.
