The Minnesota Vikings are the biggest surprise among undefeated teams this season among pundits nationally. A little over a month ago before the season began, the Vikings had an over/under win total of 8.5 and were clear favorites to finish last in the NFC North division. Now the Vikings are the clear favorites to win the division, and their over/under win total has moved up to 11.5, win a bias toward the under.
The prevailing view among pundits nationally was that while Kyler Murray may lead to a slight
improvement in the Vikings offense, the Vikings defense would probably slip back some and offset whatever gains Murray might make in the offense- hence the roughly the same win total as the Vikings had last season.
There was skepticism that Kyler Murray was the guy to significantly improve the Vikings’ offense over that of a season ago led by J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer. Some questioned the fit with Kevin O’Connell’s offense while others felt essentially that Kyler Murray peaked years ago and still others questioned whether he’ll stay healthy for the whole season. So far this season that view is mostly vindicated, as the Vikings offense hasn’t really improved that much statistically over last season and Kyler Murray hasn’t been healthy- missing essentially two games with a concussion.
Defensively, the prevailing view among pundits was that the Vikings would take a step back from last season, maybe still be a fringe top ten unit, but closer to average than top five. Trading Jonathan Greenard and releasing Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave figured into that calculation, along with questions about whether Harrison Smith would return. That view has proved to be entirely wrong as the Vikings defense has improved to be the top unit in the league by most major metrics, including points allowed, EPA, and DVOA.
The Vikings have also emerged as the top special teams unit so far, with All-Pro Will Reichard perfect on the season and Myles Price upping his game as both a punt and kick returner, including taking one to the house. Isaiah Rodgers also had a blocked field goal attempt which added to the Vikings’ special teams prowess.
Overall, the Vikings are tied with the also undefeated 49ers for the top EPA/play, which has become the analytics community’s go-to measure of efficiency, across all three phases after five weeks:
Nevertheless, the betting markets view the Vikings as among the most likely potential frauds in the league after five weeks, from the standpoint of projected regular season record vs. average for a team with their current (5-0) record.
What this chart is saying is that the average team that starts 5-0 is expected to finish 13-4 whereas the Vikings are currently projected to finish 11-6, 2 games below that average. Given the projections for the rest of the NFC, that would still make the Vikings NFC North division champions and the second seed in the NFC playoff tournament but also implies that the Vikings will go just .500 the rest of the season.
Part of the ‘fraud’ implied here isn’t necessarily that the Vikings are a bad team and should really be 2-3 at this point (although that’s what was expected just before the season started), but rather that the Vikings have played a relatively easy schedule measured by average DVOA of past opponents and play a relatively difficult schedule by the same measure going forward. The Vikings played the 29th most difficult schedule so far by average total DVOA of opponents and have the 4th most difficult schedule going forward. By contrast, the 5-0 49ers have played the 26th most difficult schedule so far and have the 23rd most difficult schedule going forward.
The other part of the ‘fraud’ implied from the Vikings projected season record is how the Vikings have performed in each phase- offense, defense, and special teams- and how that is perceived.
Offense Typically More Important and Predictive than Defense or Special Teams
At this point in the season, the league and pundits are just starting to figure out who the real contenders are, which teams are fringe playoff teams, and which teams will be picking early in next year’s draft. There are still probably more questions than answers at this point and pundits that have been around for a while will remind people that come December, nobody will remember or care how teams played in September and October.
At the same time, the analytical community will note that early season performance tends not to be particularly predictive, but offensive efficiency (measured by EPA or DVOA) tends to be more predictive and at an earlier stage in the season than either defensive or special teams performance, and for that reason is more important. Fans also tend to focus on offense more than defense, and that includes Vikings fans who were much more excited about the 2024 Vikings’ 5-0 start, which featured a more productive offense, than the 2026 Vikings’ 5-0 start, which has featured a more anemic offense.
All of these analytical topics are covered in a good clip on whether defense wins championships or not below:
The bottom line on whether defense wins championships is more of a qualified sort of rather than something more definitive as top offenses tend to make the playoffs more than top defenses, but once in the playoffs, the vast majority of Super Bowl winning teams won the turnover battle, which at least in part depends on having a defense that can produce takeaways.
That said, there are definitely teams that won the Super Bowl with a defense that carried the team. The 2015 Broncos, the 2002 Bucs, and the 2000 Ravens are the clearest examples, but there are several others that at least leaned more on their defense to make it through the playoffs unbeaten. You could make a good argument that the last three Super Bowl champions- the Seahawks, Eagles, and 2023 Chiefs – won based more on their defense than offense over the course of the season and playoffs. That said, even 2015 Broncos, 2002 Bucs, and 2000 Ravens had at least average offenses in terms of points and yards. The Vikings offense has a way to go yet before they would have average rankings in those two metrics.
So How Much More Can the Vikings Lean Into Their Defense and Special Teams?
The Vikings offense has shown improvement, particularly over the past five quarters, but there probably isn’t much more runway for them to become a solid unit without blemishing the loss column. Here’s why.
The Vikings defensive unit is currently #1 in the league in most major efficiency metrics, including points allowed and points allowed per game, but after the Colts this weekend face a tougher slate of offenses. The Lions, Bills, and 49ers (3 of the next 4 games) currently rank 2nd, 1st, and 3rd in points scored. The Packers are the 4th team and have been looking better offensively in the last couple weeks. So, it’s holding the opposing team to 13 points on average, which the Vikings defense has done so far this season, is likely to get tougher.
The Vikings’ special teams units, led by All-Pro kicker Will Reichard and returner Myles Price, is currently leading the league in DVOA. In fact, if they were to maintain their current DVOA (+13.6%) they would be the best special teams units in the league going back to the 1970s and possibly earlier. Will Reichard hasn’t missed a kick and Myles Price leads the league in combined return yardage and has the only special teams TD. I wouldn’t be surprised if both Reichard and Price continue at a high level, but odds don’t favor them maintaining this level all season.
So, at some point in the next couple weeks, the Vikings offense will need to carry its end of the bargain more decisively, particularly when it comes to getting in the end zone. They’ve been able to possess the ball, with nearly double the time of possession of their opponents the last two games, but that hasn’t translated into touchdowns. At least not many.
Fortunately, the Vikings should have running back Jordan Mason, left tackle Christian Darrisaw, tight end T.J. Hockenson, and wide receiver Jordan Addison back for the Colts game this weekend and hopefully beyond. It will be the first time the offense will have all those players on the field, along with Justin Jefferson and quarterback Kyler Murray, at the same time other than a dozen or so plays to start the season.
Murray also seems to be slowly becoming more comfortable and acclimated to the Vikings offense and appears to be getting back to one of the better iterations of Kyler Murray over the years. It’s been a more conservative version of Murray for the most part so far, which isn’t all bad, but with all hands on deck going forward and him becoming more comfortable in the system and building rapport with receivers, there is some scope for continued improvement.
And with the return of Jordan Mason, there is also some reason for optimism when it comes to the Vikings running game. Mason has quietly been a top-ten back in yards per carry the past two seasons and looked good- and a bit trimmer- in training camp this season.
It also helps that the Vikings offense continues to face less effective defenses. The Colts, Lions, and Bills all have defenses ranked in the mid-to-upper 20s in terms of DVOA. The Packers and 49ers have top ten units- the Packers similar to the Bucs in DVOA- but after that the only top ten unit they face the rest of the season is the Patriots week 14. So the Vikings offense has an easier path to continue to ramp up over the rest of the season.
Defense Could Be Historically Good
While it’s true the Vikings defense faces a tougher schedule over the next month after the Colts game, there is some rationale for this unit to be a historically good one beyond being the top unit this season.
First, Brian Flores is at the forefront of defensive scheme innovation and the Vikings are doing something no other defense is doing this season- or has ever done in the past. The Vikings defense is basically employing the blitz as part of their base defense, blitzing 70% of the time on passing downs. This is about a 25% higher rate than any other team in the league and is the highest rate since blitz rates have been measured over the course of a season. The point here is that the Vikings’ scheme is unique and opposing offenses are having a difficult time defeating it. Examples of more unique schemes that led to historically good defenses include Buddy Ryan’s 46 defense and the dominant Bears defenses of the mid-80s, Bud Carson’s Steel Curtain, and to a lesser extent Tony Dungy and Monte Kiffen’s Tampa-2. All those schemes led their respective teams to Super Bowl championships.
The other aspect of Brian Flores’ defense is the players. None of the players are All-Pros or superstars at their position, but all of the starters have been in the scheme for multiple years now and have gained a fluency that is not often achieved given the turnover in defensive coordinators and players every year across the league. And it’s pretty difficult to isolate a truly exploitable weak link while several players like Isaiah Rodgers, Jalen Redmond, Blake Cashman, Andrew Van Ginkel and Dallas Turner are quietly among the better performers at their position.
But it’s the combination of good players experienced in an innovative and well-coached scheme the league has not found answers to that creates the conditions for a historically good unit if players can stay healthy.
Sustainability and Success Always Comes Down to Injuries
The NFL season is a demolition derby- the healthiest teams are typically the ones that advance to the postseason and once in the postseason, tend to advance the farthest. Having good depth helps over the course of the season, but at the end of the day, teams with a relatively high number of key injured starters don’t often make the playoffs. And relatively healthy teams that look set for a deep postseason run can still have an early exit with just a couple injuries to key players- especially at quarterback.
But injuries aside, the Vikings with an ascending offense could easily outperform current expectations (an 11-6 regular season record), particularly if the Vikings top defense proves to have the upper hand against the league’s top offenses. That test we begin starting week 8 against the Lions.
Follow me on X/Bluesky @wludford
