TCR Bracketology 8.0: Illinois’ outlook four weeks from Selection Sunday

After a frustrating loss at Michigan State last week put some distance between Illinois and the 1-seeds last week, a truly deflating loss at home to Wisconsin threatened to drop the Illini down to a 3-seed. Fortunately for the Illini, Kylan Boswell came back and a stifling defensive performance against Indiana righted the ship. Also, the other teams around them on the 2-3 line also kept dropping like flies. While Houston continues to win and is putting serious pressure on UConn for the fourth 1-seed,

and Purdue got two massive road wins at Nebraska and Iowa to leapfrog Illinois, the rest of the teams that were hovering at or near the 2-line all had similar weeks to Illinois: Iowa State lost at TCU, Nebraska lost to Purdue, Michigan State got destroyed by Wisconsin and Kansas lost at Iowa State. With all the carnage, Illinois holds onto the third 2-seed, and stays in Saint Louis.

What is the realistic floor and ceiling for seeds for Illinois at this point? A 1-seed is not completely out of the question but would probably require either winning out the regular season, or maybe with some attrition at the top they could sustain one quad 1 loss to with a run to the Big Ten Tourney Championship Game (the results of that game are historically irrelevant for seeding). A realistic floor would be a 4-seed, as even with a disastrous 2-3 finish to the season, the strong resume they have built to this point would stop them from falling too far.

My question for you is, assuming Illinois stays on the 2-line, which 1-seed would you feel best about facing in the Elite Eight?

Midwest (Chicago)

1. Michigan (Buffalo)
2. Iowa State (Oklahoma City)
3. Florida (Tampa Bay)
4. Virginia (Philadelphia)
5. Arkansas
6. North Carolina
7. Utah State
8. NC State
9. Santa Clara
10. Indiana
11. USC/Texas
12. Liberty
13. Utah Valley
14. Troy
15. Portland State
16. Long Island/Bethune-Cookman

Notes on the Region:

With Arizona losing twice this past week, Michigan moves to the top overall seed. They are the best team in the country by every important metric (yes, I am purposefully trashing ESPNs BPI by saying that). After a nervy patch in January, the Wolverines have locked back in, winning each of their past five games by 12 or more points, culminating with a 30-point annihilation of UCLA on Saturday. Still, as good as they have been, they have a brutal schedule coming up that could lead them to stumble similarly to Arizona last week: They go to Purdue, then play Duke in Washington D.C., get a little respite with Minnesota, before travelling to Illinois and Iowa. Three losses in that five-game stretch is completely conceivable. Get out of it with zero or one loss, and the top overall seed will be pretty close to locked up (unless that loss is a convincing one to #2 overall Duke).

Elsewhere in the bracket, the Big Ten bubble has double representation in this region, with Indiana just hanging on to a 10-seed and USC heading to the first four. They are joined by UCLA on the right side of the bubble, with Ohio State just sitting on the outside. 10 seems to be the most likely number in the Big Ten, with one of those bubble teams likely to get cannibalized by the others down the stretch.

East (Washington D.C.)

1. Duke (Greenville)
2. Illinois (Saint Louis)
3. Vanderbilt (Greenville)
4. Kansas (San Diego)
5. Saint John’s
6. Saint Louis
7. Villanova
8. Kentucky
9. UCF
10. Auburn
11. Georgia/New Mexico
12. Yale
13. Hawaii
14. UNC-Wilmington
15. East Tennessee State
16. Tennessee-Martin

Notes on the Region:

Illinois starts off the journey with East Tennessee State. Despite not having a single player over 6-foot-8, the Buccaneers actually have been very successful keeping opponents off the offensive glass, allowing only 24% offensive rebound rate, 18th in the country. Illinois’ offensive rebounding attack is unlike anything they have seen this year though, and in their only high major game this year they fell to North Carolina by 19 points.

In the second round, Villanova would be the favorite to make it through, but Auburn is the more exciting matchup. Bruce Pearl is no longer around to be hated, but you can expect that hatred the fanbase has to filter down to his son Steven, who Bruce handed the job when he retired late in the offseason, when it is impossible to hold a real coaching search. Auburn has the offensive firepower to at least try to keep up with Illinois but has been awful defensively and I’d expect Tyler to get the better of Steven in the nepotism battle on that side of the court.

Illinois could go back-to-back with SEC teams, as Vanderbilt would be the favored Sweet Sixteen opponent. The Commodores are led by a spectacular backcourt of Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles. They are undersized but get into the lane well and rack up a lot of steals (5.3 per game combined).

In the Elite Eight, a blueblood will be waiting most likely. Duke is the favorite, but they get a dangerous Kentucky team in the second round, and Kansas in the Sweet Sixteen. Duke is getting practice playing in the East regional gym this weekend, with their non-conference game with Michigan in Washington D.C.

West (San Jose)

1. Arizona (San Diego)
2. Purdue (Saint Louis)
3. Gonzaga (Portland)
4. Texas Tech (Tampa Bay)
5. Alabama
6. Tennessee
7. Clemson
8. Saint Mary’s
9. SMU
10. San Diego State
11. UCLA
12. Belmont
13. High Point
14. North Dakota State
15. Wright State
16. NJIT/Morgan State

Notes on the Region:

UCLA continues to flirt precariously on the bubble for what was expected to be a top 15 team. Due to a logjam of matchup restrictions for 11-seeds with various 3 and 6-seeds, UCLA gets placed in a spot where they could get rematches against Gonzaga and Purdue in the second round and Sweet Sixteen.

Clemson and San Diego State are both top 15 defenses with putrid offenses, so expect a first to 60 points wins kind of game there. On the flipside, Alabama and Texas Tech in the second round could be a race to 100. Alabama will do their damage from three, while JT Toppin could go for 40 against Alabama’s weak interior.

South (Houston)

1. UConn (Philadelphia)
2. Houston (Oklahoma City)
3. Nebraska (Portland)
4. Michigan State (Buffalo)
5. Louisville
6. BYU
7. Wisconsin
8. Iowa
9. Miami (FL)
10. Texas A&M
11. Miami (OH)
12. South Florida
13. Stephen F. Austin
14. Austin Peay
15. Navy
16. Merrimack

Notes on the Region:

Miami (Ohio) stands alone as the last undefeated team in the country. They are obviously a longshot to complete the postseason undefeated but have a hyper-efficient offense (#1 shooting efficiency in the country) that could push them through a round or two. BYU in particular is incredibly talented but has had issues playing down to their competition.

The biggest riser this week is Wisconsin, flipping from a 10 to a 7-seed after beating Illinois and Michigan State. With two more wins to add to the Michigan upset earlier in the year, Wisconsin is pretty close to a lock at this point and is someone the top Big Ten teams would like to avoid for the rest of the year. That said, the NCAA tournament has been a different animal for Greg Gard, and I do not see any way their journey pushes them past Houston.

First Four Out: Mizzou, Ohio State, VCU, Seton Hall

Next Four Out: TCU, West Virginia, Cal, Virginia Tech

Bids By Conference:

Big Ten: 10

SEC: 10

ACC: 8

Big 12: 7

Big East: 3

West Coast: 3

Mountain West: 3