Overview
- Rating: 5.23
- 2025 Stats: 433 AB, .249 AVG, 9 HR, 38 RBI, 7 SB, .659 OPS, 0.1 bWAR
- Date of Birth: April 28, 2000 (age-25 season)
- 2025 Earnings: $793,000
- 2026 Status: 1st year Arb eligible
Background and Peak Expectations
Alek Thomas burst onto the prospect scene with a standout 2021 minor league season (.313 AVG, 18 HR, .953 OPS) while showcasing elite center field defense. Entering 2022, MLB.com ranked him as the Diamondbacks’
top prospect and No. 18 overall—ahead of future stars like Corbin Carroll and Elly de la Cruz.
That hype peaked early. Aside from his iconic game-tying homer off Craig Kimbrel in the 2023 NLCS, Thomas has failed to build on it.
2025 Review: No Offensive Progress, Defensive Regression
Thomas’ complicated swing—a massive leg kick combined with excessive bat waggle—continues to betray him against big-league breaking balls and offspeed pitches. In 2025, his xBA was just .233 against breakers and .213 against offspeed. Demotions to the minors aimed at simplifying his mechanics yielded temporary abbreviated leg kicks, but the old habits returned upon promotion, producing consistent underwhelming results.
He ranked 6th among players with 400+ PA in topped% (40.2%), leading to weak grounders—often routine rollers to the pull side.
Compounding the offensive stagnation, Thomas’ once-elite defense eroded. His Fielding Run Value on Baseball Savant dropped from +7 in his 2022 debut to +1, -1, and 0 in 2025—settling at league-average in center field. Lower-body injuries (including a hamstring issue that limited him to 39 games in 2024) likely sapped his range, exacerbated by Chase Field’s expansive outfield.
In his fourth MLB season with ~400+ PA, Thomas posted a meager 0.1 WAR—far below his 1.4 WAR rookie output in fewer games. For a former top prospect, this represents a steady decline in value.
2026 Outlook: Questionable Fit as Everyday CF
Heading into 2026 (as of December 2025), Thomas projects as Arizona’s starting center fielder on the current roster. However, his league-average (or worse) production at a premium defensive position raises doubts about his viability on a contending team.
Center field remains a clear upgrade target this offseason. Acquiring a superior option would render Thomas expendable—potentially as trade bait for bullpen help—while bolstering run prevention, a stated priority for GM Mike Hazen.
Fans have hoped for years that Thomas arrives in spring with a simplified swing, ditching the leg kick and waggle. That wish remains unfulfilled. Internal threats like shifting Corbin Carroll back to center (if prospects like Ryan Waldschmidt emerge in right) could also push Thomas to a reserve role.
At this point, expecting Thomas to anchor center field for a competitive Diamondbacks club feels optimistic. His tools suggest upside, but four seasons of stasis on offense and regression on defense tell a different story. I want more than anything to believe in Alek Thomas as that home run he hit in the NLCS will always be one of my favorite baseball memories of this team. However, he needs to show us something and it may already be too late. What do you guys think?
