It seems crazy to say, but at 37 years old, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is playing the best football of his career. That also just so happens to be at an MVP level. While Stafford may
not be as exciting as Drake Maye, Patrick Mahomes, or Josh Allen, the fact that he’s been on an all-time heater is exciting.
A big part of winning MVP is storylines and there was no storyline this season bigger than Matthew Stafford’s back. The questions were fair. Players like Tony Romo and Philip Rivers struggled with bulged discs in their backs and Stafford was managing it much later in his career. After missing training camp, there were questions on whether or not Stafford would play Week 1. If he played Week 1, what would happen when he took his first big hit? How much torque could his back handle every time he dropped back to pass?
Instead of looking like he’s been managing an injury, Stafford has looked like the best quarterback in the NFL. The raw numbers and weekly milestones speak for themselves. He’s fifth in yards per game and leads the league in touchdowns with 30. No other quarterback has more than 23. The gap between Stafford at the top with 30 and Dak Prescott and Jared Goff in second with 23 is the same as the gap between second and Caleb Williams at 15.
Stafford has thrown 27 consecutive touchdown passes which is an NFL record and hasn’t thrown an interception in 308 pass attempts. Only five quarterbacks in NFL history have at least 30 touchdown passes and five-or-fewer interceptions in their team’s first 11 games of a season. It’s worth noting that four of them won the MVP and the one that didn’t lost to a player that did win the MVP.
The advanced numbers only add to Stafford’s MVP case. He has the highest passing grade via PFF through 12 weeks. He is second in big-time throws and big-time throw rate. A big-time throw is a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field or into a tighter window. Stafford is also third in the NFL in hero-throw rate which is the percentage of extraordinary throws a quarterback makes that maximizes the result of the play.
If the MVP is all about the player that is most valuable, no quarterback has been more valuable than Stafford. The Rams quarterback leads the NFL in FTN Fantasy’s “DYAR” metric which measures a player’s cumulative value above or below a replacement-level alternative. In fact, the gap between Stafford at one with 1065 DYAR and Maye at two with 766 is more than Maye at two and Allen at 11. Stafford also tops the leaderboard in quarterback DVOA.
As if that wasn’t enough, Stafford is third in EPA per dropback and has the NFL’s best quarterback rating. He’s also fifth in ESPN’s QBR.
The numbers speak for themselves and Stafford finally got to showcase what he’s doing on a primetime stage. While Stafford played well on Thursday Night Football back in Week 5, the Rams lost. Stafford threw for 389 yards and three touchdowns that night. However, the question leaving that game was why head coach Sean McVay didn’t put the ball in his quarterback’s hands with the game on the line.
On Sunday Night Football with the NFC’s No. 1 seed on the line, Stafford played one of his more efficient games of the season and brought out all the tricks for the world to see. Stafford started the game 12-for-12 which tied a career-best for the Rams quarterback. Stafford brought out all the funky arm angles and his second touchdown pass was a ‘no-looker’ to Colby Parkinson in the back of the end zone.
Through Week 12, Matthew Stafford is averaging 0.17 EPA per dropback according to NFL Pro. That is just slightly below his 0.18 EPA per dropback in 2021. However, while the highs may not be as high as 2021, the lows are also not as low. Through 12 games in 2021, Stafford had two games with worse than -10 total EPA. He had two games, which were losses, with multiple interceptions. Stafford’s lone game of -10 EPA or worse came against the Seattle Seahawks and he didn’t turn the ball over in the game. Because Stafford didn’t turn the ball over, the Rams won.
This is much different than when Matthew Stafford joined the alleged Super Team in 2021 and only had to direct the ship. The Rams rank 26th in pass-blocking via PFF. They have managed injuries at right tackle and left guard. After not having the offseason to develop a chemistry with Davante Adams, that duo has since become automatic in the red zone. If you didn’t know any better, Adams has taken the role of Calvin Johnson in that area of the field for Stafford. The last time a wide receiver had 12 touchdowns in 11 games with Stafford was Johnson in 2011.
For much of Stafford’s career, the question was always what he could do with a better coaching staff and supporting cast. The answer to that was that he was capable of winning a Super Bowl as he helped lead the Rams to that goal in 2021. With Stafford at 37, nobody thought a season like this was possible. Nobody thought he had another MVP-caliber season in him.
Had Stafford been on a better team in 2011 when he threw for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns, he would have been in the MVP conversation. Instead, he didn’t receive a vote. He didn’t as much as make the Pro Bowl.
Stafford has placed inside the top-10 of MVP voting once in his career and that was after 2023. If Stafford manages to do the unthinkable and win the MVP, this is the season that’s going to put Stafford in the Hall of Fame. He will finally have gotten the individual recognition that he didn’t get for so many years in Detroit.
For the first time this season, Stafford leapfrogged Maye as the odds-favorite to win the MVP. If Stafford and the Rams do what they are capable of over the final third of the season, it’s hard to see Stafford not winning the award. If he does, everyone will look at what he did in Week 12 on primetime as to when his MVP case was cemented.
Just how good is Emmanuel Forbes?
Forbes has been a topic of discussion in several of the film reviews this season. However, if a player does well, they are most likely going to continue getting brought up. Forbes was arguably the best player on defense against the Buccaneers. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Forbes faced seven targets and did not allow a single reception on Sunday night. No defender since Week 12 of 2022 has been targeted more times without allowing a catch.
The Rams took a chance on Forbes last season and they have hit the jackpot. He’s playing with incredible confidence right now as seen with his career-high 5 passes defended in the win. Forbes was the third-ranked overall defender via PFF in Week 12. Since Week 6, Forbes is PFF’s best coverage cornerback with an 87.6 coverage grade. During that time, he ranks second in pass breakups and his 33.7 passer rating allowed when targeted is first.
Forbes has been yet another reclamation project that has paid off. What’s even more ironic is that the team that took Forbes in the first round is now in need of a cornerback. If only the Washington Commanders had Emmanuel Forbes. Forbes has been a big reason why the Rams’ secondary has played as well as it has without Ahkello Witherspoon.
Nate Landman shines after contract extension
The Rams typically haven’t been a team to pay linebackers. In fact, they have done quite the opposite. Instead of paying Ernest Jones, the Rams traded him for basically nothing. Despite needing a linebacker, the Rams have taken only one inside the top-175 of the draft. That player didn’t make the 53-man roster. Landman was signed for a minimum deal with the Rams in free agency and has out-played that contract to say the least.
Given Landman’s level this season, the front office had seen enough and extended him to a three-year, $22.5 million deal. For reference, Over The Cap has Landman’s value over $10 million. The Rams are technically still underpaying Landman.
Landman is a big reason why the Rams’ run defense has been as good as it has been this season. He’s brought an energy and leadership aspect that the defense didn’t have at the second-level in 2024. For the Rams to pay a linebacker, it shows just how much Landman has meant to this defense.
