Happy Friday, everyone. As you well know, Oklahoma comes to town tomorrow. Your previews and predictions:
OU leads the nation in rushing success rate* allowed, while Bama’s run game ranks 109th. Ty Simpson and the Tide will have to succeed through the air, but the Sooners also rank ninth in passing success rate allowed. If the Tide get to even 23 points, they should be thrilled.
(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third
or fourth.)
Can OU get to 23, then? Bama has shown some vulnerability against the run, and the Sooners’ run game has perked up of late, with 239-pound sophomore running back Xavier Robinson grinding out 224 yards in the past two games. With quarterback John Mateer using his legs as well, OU’s offense has been excellent in the red zone, and the Sooners might get away with creating fewer scoring chances. Still, in his past four games, Mateer has averaged just 5.0 yards per dropback. That probably won’t get it done if you’re hunting for a huge road win.
Current line: Bama -6.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 1.3 | FPI projection: Bama by 5.8
Oklahoma’s defense will step up in a big way, and Alabama will have a hard time moving the ball early on, but the defense will manage to lock down hard on Sooner quarterback John Mateer as the game goes on.
The Bama passing game won’t be consistent. It’ll have to take the midrange throws that are there and find a rhythm, and then, midway through the second half will come that one big play that finally opens it up just a smidge.
Bama will win, but it’ll work for it.
Alabama 26, Oklahoma 20
“Their defense, that’s the key to this game,” Ingram said. “Oklahoma’s defense, they are one of the best defenses in the country. Coach Venables obviously he’s a defensive guy. Their D coordinator, they’re doing a great job. They get pressure on the quarterback. So as an offense we’re gonna have to be able to find the pressure, block the pressure and not be one-dimensional. So this is gonna be a tough game for us, man.”
Ultimately, Ingram still couldn’t pick against his former team, saying he would take Alabama to win. He stressed the need for the Crimson Tide to come out with something to prove after losing to the Sooners last year in Norman.
“How I don’t like how it looks, five-and-a-half, I think it’s gonna be a close game,” he said. “I’m gonna say we’re gonna cover by six points. You have to. A revenge game. Last year, we went to Oklahoma and they stomped us, ruined our College Football Playoff hopes and this is a revenge game. Everyone that was there, coach DeBoer, everyone that was there experienced it. This is a revenge game.
“I will take the (point spread), but I cannot in good conscious say that Oklahoma is going to go in there with an offense that we just don’t know if they’re going to be able to score a lot of points and beat Alabama, in particular with that elite passing game,” Klatt said.
“So here’s what I’m going to do: I couldn’t go as far as (picking) Oklahoma outright. Bama has won 17 straight at home. So give me Alabama in a thriller, 24-21, but Oklahoma covers.”
Of any team Alabama has faced, Oklahoma is one that should scare the Crimson Tide the most. The Sooners have the best scoring defense in the SEC, and the seventh-best scoring defense nationally — allowing 13.8 points per game. The defense is stingy in the pass game, allowing seven passing touchdowns in nine games, but especially stingy against the run with a conference-low four rushing touchdowns allowed, and 2.49 yards per carry allowed. Oklahoma has not excelled offensively, but is a dual-threat weapon that could hurt the Crimson Tide. However, this top-10 SEC matchup is at Bryant-Denny Stadium. And it’s a game Alabama is eager to get revenge in after falling to the unranked Sooners in Norman in 2024. It may not be pretty. But Alabama should add another top-10 win. No. 4 Alabama 20, No. 10 Oklahoma 17
Oklahoma’s defense rates among the nation’s best, but has given up a few big plays in the passing game over the past few weeks. Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson and receivers Ryan WIlliams and Germie Bernard present a unique challenge, especially if Oklahoma is unable to get much consistency from its offense. The defense will keep the game close, but Alabama will pull away. Pick: Alabama -6
Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has been one of the best players in the country this season, totaling 2,461 yards and 21 touchdowns on 198-of-296 passing with one interception through the air. OU’s defense will be one of the better units Alabama has faced this season and its offense found some rhythm last time out in a road victory at Tennessee.
The Sooners crushed the Crimson Tide’s playoff hopes last season with a 24-3 win. What will transpire Saturday?
Here are our predictions for the OU-Alabama game:
Colton Sulley, OU beat writer
OU 30, Alabama 28
TIDE ROLLED
Sooners ride run game from John Mateer, Xavier Robinson to victory and stay alive in CFP race
Alabama is favored in the game for a reason. Alabama’s defense, despite allowing a few too many explosive plays, has been quite stout in its own right since the season opening loss to Florida State. On offense, Alabama has been appreciably better than the Sooners even with the challenges running the football, though red zone has been something of an adventure at times.
Still, this one has been staring at us all season. Oklahoma got to enjoy a bye week while Alabama fought with LSU, and this is a problematic matchup for the Tide. Alabama has one of the top secondaries in the nation, and they will be counted on heavily to hold it down on the outside while extra attention is paid to the run game. Running QBs are always a bear to contain.
If you’re looking for a reason to be optimistic, Alabama was able to contain Diego Pavia who has been even more a thorn in the side of defensive coordinators than Mateer has. This one is likely to be a street fight, and Alabama will have to lean on Ty Simpson and the explosive receiving corps to pull it out.
I’ll go Alabama, 24-16 as the Tide defense is able to bow up enough in the red zone.
Of course, that is merely my opinion. Vote and give us yours in the comments.
That’s about it for today. Have a great weekend.
Roll Tide.
