Over the past two weeks the Jays are 7-6. The offense has scored 4.5 runs per game.
Hot
Brandon Valenzuela: Played in 10 games, starting 9. Hit ..290/.361/.677 with 3 double, 3 home run, 6 RBI, 4 walks, and 5 strikeouts.
And he didn’t have a sac bunt over these two weeks. Yay. He’s been amazing. If he walked a bit more I’d say the second coming of Carlos Delgado. It is getting close to the point that they will have to figure a way to keep him in the lineup when Alejandro Kirk comes back. He played a little
bit of first base in the minors and of course he could DH. He’s hit lefties and righties about the same this year, .823 OPS vs RHP, .771 vs LHP. Base stealers are 6-0 against him in the past 10 days. On the season he’s thrown out 21% of base stealers, just slightly below league average.
Ernie Clement: Started in all 13 games. Hit .346/.346/.596 with 2 doubles, 1 triple, 3 home runs, 7 RBI, 0 walks and 7 strikeouts.
Started 11 games at second, 2 at short. I often talk about guys that control the strikezone. Ernie doesn’t have a strikezone. If a pitcher throws it, he’ll swing and it works. There is more than one way to be successful. Baseball Savant has him at 1 percentile for chase rate and 3 percentile in bat speed, which you would generally say ‘this guy can’t be successful’. But he is 95 percentile in ‘squared-up’. He’s also 92 percentile in whiff rate and 98 percentile in strikeout rate. I’d generally think that his not a player that will age well, but he already has a slow bat speed, will it drop that much more as he ages? He’ll be interesting to watch over the next few years.
Jesús Sánchez: Played in 11 games, 9 starts. Hit .323/.344/.516 with 3 doubles, 1 homer, 5 RBI, 0 walks and 8 strikeouts.
The power hasn’t been there the way we expected, but he’s hitting well. He could go on the list of guys who really should DH, but that list is surprisingly long for a team that was building around defense just a few years ago. I don’t know that there has been a shift in philosophy or if this is just the type of player who has been available. The fun part of his defense if that he seems as surprised as the rest of us when he games a catch. Baseball Savant has him at the 5 percentile in range and 23 percentile in arm value with a 67 percentile in arm strength, suggesting he throws the ball well, but perhaps not on target or to the wrong place.
Kazuma Okamoto: Started 13 of the 13 games. Hit .298/.377/.511 with 1 double, 3 home runs, 10 RBI, 3 walks, and 18 strikeouts.
Fairly quietly, he’s been very good lately. I think he’s going to be a streak hitter. Weeks of cold and weeks of hot, but then I think that all of us are streak hitters. His defense looks better than I thought it would, but Baseball Savant suggests it isn’t great, 37th percentile range and 30th percentile arm strength. I would have guessed better. Savant also likes his bat speed (91th percentile), barrel % (89th percentile) and hard hit % (93rd percentile).
Yohendrick Pinango: Played in 11 games, starting 8. Hit .303/.343/.606 with 1 double, 3 homers, 7 RBI, 2 walks and 11 strikeouts.
He’s been great. Like Sanchez, he’s likely better suited to DH, though I hate the idea of something that young DHing. FanGraphs has a him at a -1 Outs Above Average, but that’s in limited innings. I like watching his at bats. He seems to be hitting the ball harder lately, four home runs on the season and three were in the last 11 games. Just 24, I think we are going to enjoy his watching his career.
Nathan Lukes: He’s played in all 12 games, starting 10. Hit .349/.404/465 with 2 doubles, 1 homer, 4 RBI, 3 walks and 7 strikeouts.
He’s picked up right where he left off before the injury. It is too bad that we have so many good left handed hitting outfielders, it is hard to get them all the playing time they need. He’s played all three outfield positions starting 7 games in right, 2 in left and 1 in center. He’s a better player than I tend to give him credit for. Outfielders without a lot of power or speed tend to get less credit than deserved. But he’s getting on base 36% of the time, he makes the plays in the outfield.
Cold
Daulton Varsho: Played in 12 games, starting 9. Hit .200/.286/.333, with 2 doubles, 1 triple, 1 RBI, 4 walks and 6 strikeouts.
A sore wrist has him out of the starting lineup at the moment. He’s been going in as a defensive sub. The down side of that is that they can’t backdate if they decide to put him on the IL. I don’t know if his wrist is improving. I also don’t know how long his wrist has been bothering him.His defense has been looking better lately.
Vladimir Guerrero: Started 12 of 13. Hit .261/.314/348 with 4 doubles, 3 RBI,4 walks, and 6 strikeouts. And 1 steal.
1 start was as DH. Yeah he’s slumping. I don’t know how to fix it. If I did, I likely wouldn’t be a blogger. He has been getting hard contact in pretty much every game, course not every at bat. He’ll seem to have a good at bat, hit one into a glove and then the next at bat isn’t as good. He’s still 96th percentile expected batting average, 94th percentile bat speed. But chase rate is up, 36th percentile and squared up is 56 percentile. Strikeout rate is still low 96th percentile. Walk rate is still high 77th percentile.
Andrés Giménez: Played in all 13 games, starting 11. Hit .220/.273/.341 with 1 home runs, 2 doubles, with 3 RBI, 1 steal, 2 caught stealing, 2 walk and 10 strikeouts.
His RISP numbers have dropped, .749 OPS now on the season, two weeks ago it was .973 on the season. Still a good number but dropping. I love watching his defense and I like him at short. Baseball Savant says 96th percentile in range. How you value bad bat, great glove is tough. Since I play OOTP, I value offense more. In real life? Baseball Reference has him at a 0.2 WAR, Fangraphs 0.8 WAR. Next year, he’s being paid $23.5 and for the two years after that. I don’t know that I’d want to be paying that to a guy who doesn’t hit.
George Springer: Started 11 games, 10 starts. Hit .214/.298/.286 with 3 doubles, 1 RBI, 4 walks and 8 strikeouts, with 1 steal and 1 caught.
I don’t know….we have half a dozen guys who should DH. But, Springer is popular with his teammates. And he’s making a lot of money. He is hitting lefties (.725 OPS) much better than righties (.590) so you could look to platoon him and see if his bat comes around. We do have a few lefty batters who would be better served as DH. That, of course, might be a hard sell to him and maybe to the clubhouse.
Myles Straw: Played in 11 games, 5 starts. Hit .222/.300/.278 with 1 double, 2 walks and 3 strikeouts..
He’s getting more playing time with Varsho’s injury. I don’t think his defense is quite what it used to be, but it is still good.
Tyler Heineman: Started 4 games. Hit .167/.286/.250 with 1 double, 2 RBI, 1 walk, and 4 strikeouts.
He threw out 5 of 12 basestealers. The Marlins tried to steal 9 times against him, on May 27, but he threw out 4. If he would be hitting like he did last year, Brandon wouldn’t be playing so much. I kind of feel bad that he’s going to be DFAed when Kirk comes back, but he’ll likely land another backup job before long.
IL
Anthony Santander: Might get into a game before the end of the season. Who knows.
Alejandro Kirk: He should be back soon, maybe by the weekend.
Addison Barger: He’s likely a couple of weeks from coming back.
