If you invoke the name of Luis Arraez in a discussion with anyone who has even a passing knowledge of baseball, the word “contact” will likely be one of the first few words said. There’s an obvious reason for that, as Arraez’ ability to put the bat on the ball is his trademark calling card, and he is arguably the best playing today at doing it.
Since entering the league in 2019, Arraez’ 93.6% contact rate is the best in all of baseball, just narrowly edging out Steven Kwan of the Guardians (92%).
Arraez also has the lowest strikeout rate (5.8%) in the majors over that span, meaning that he is almost assured to put the ball in play somewhere when he comes to the plate. That was something that many highly touted when the Phillies made a trade for Arraez at the deadline this year, as Philadelphia is a team that tends to struggle at times with whiffs, especially on pitches outside of the zone.
The hope was that Arraez would be able to put the ball in play in situations that called for it where others have failed in the past. He has been able to do just that, except it hasn’t always been a good thing.
Monday’s win over the Braves illustrated one example of how Arraez’ approach and contact ability can be his greatest weakness as well as his greatest strength. Arraez stepped to the plate in the bottom of the sixth in a scoreless game with a runner on third and two outs. He took the first two pitches outside of the zone for balls, but the third pitch curveball that was also well outside of the zone was called a strike. Arraez took the pitch as if he knew it was a ball and even stared at the umpire as to say it was a bad call, but he still chose not to challenge the pitch, despite being in a crucial spot and the Phillies having both ABS challenges remaining.
He then took a slider way outside of the zone for a ball, bringing the count to 3-1. The next pitch was a perfectly located fastball on the high and outside corner to push the count full. The at-bat ended on the sixth pitch, a borderline fastball in a similar spot that Arraez lifted out to left field for the last out of the inning, stranding the run at third.
It was as if Arraez deliberately didn’t challenge the pitch because he would rather put the ball in play than possibly draw a walk. That inherently isn’t a bad thing, but it is when the pitches you swing at are not strikes and sometimes even worse when you make contact with them.
A further example of this problem can be seen in an at-bat Arraez had August 29th in Anaheim. The Phillies had a runner on third with one out when Arraez came to the plate. They were nursing a 1-0 lead in the eighth and needed insurance. This is one of the exact scenarios that were envisioned when Arraez was acquired. A ball in play almost assures another run scoring. Arraez fell behind 0-2 before taking three straight balls. He then fouled off five straight pitches, four of which were well outside of the strike zone. After 11 pitches, Arraez finally succeeded in putting the ball in play, but it was a groundout to first that did not score the run.
If Arraez took any of those four pitches that he fouled off that were well outside of the zone, the Phillies would have had runners on the corners with one out and the opportunity to score a run with an out would have still been possible, albeit the double play would now have been in order.
Since joining the Phillies, Arraez has swung at 38.4% of the pitches he has seen outside of the strike zone. That is a higher rate than Trea Turner (32.5%) whose issues with chasing are well documented. Unlike Turner though, Arraez makes contact with those pitches outside of the zone. Arraez has made contact with 92% of the pitches he’s swung at outside the zone since becoming a Phillie, a rate that is very much in line with what he did with the Giants earlier this season (90.6%). If we go back to looking at all qualified hitters since Arraez joined the league in 2019, he’s once again the leader at making contact on pitches outside of the zone at a rate of 89.5%.
Sure, some of those swings at pitches outside of the zone can result in base hits. But more often than not they are a recipe for soft contact and outs. That contact ability and approach is enticing when it’s resulting in hits, but it gets frustrating when it results in weak outs instead of a possible base on balls that keeps the line moving. Just because Arraez can make contact on just about any pitch in any location, it doesn’t mean that he should always try to.
