Everton blew any sliver of a chance at European qualification with an abject – on many levels – non-performance in losing 3-1 at Hill Dickinson Stadium to Sunderland last weekend. Whilst the North East club are back in the top flight after eight years in the second and third tiers, they cannot be accused of failing to prepare properly for the challenge which awaited them. After riding out a rough half hour at the Stadium of Light in early November, the Black Cats went on to trounce the visitors for the remaining
hour in a 1-1 draw, before knocking them out of the FA Cup, and then completing a satisfactory trio of games against the Blues with what ended up as a comprehensive victory on Sunday. So much for this Premier League being a tough gig.
I mentioned in last week’s preview that Sunderland’s ambitious owners acted proactively, decisively and without sentiment in completely reshaping their Championship play-off final winning squad over an active summer. Mainstays of the team – such as captain and academy product Dan Neil (once an Everton target) – found themselves surplus to requirements as new signings arrived en masse, with the club getting a lot of business done early, in a structured fashion. Contrast this with the Merseysiders, who were sluggish, uncoordinated and disjointed by comparison. With club CEO Angus Kinnear’s statement that the squad rebuild would comprise a two-summer plan, then given the lack of any obvious progress in the first window, this leaves a lot of heavy lifting for this summer.
Everton conclude what has been in turns a promising, then frustrating campaign with a trip to North London, where they’ll face a beleaguered Tottenham Hotspur — currently on their third manager this term, and wallowing at 17th in the table, with a serious chance of falling out of the division. The Blues have hit a terrible run of form at a critical moment, and David Moyes will not want to end the season on seven straight winless games, as questions about his long-term future at the club grow stronger.
Form
Ah, Spurs eh. What a mess of a season they’ve endured, though at least some of their problems are self-inflicted, and possibly have been long in fully materializing. The Ange Postecoglou appointment, which had started so promisingly, deflated last season, resulting in an unprecedented, worst-ever Premier League finish for the club — 17th place. So poor were the promoted sides last term that the Londoners were never in any genuine danger, and the consolation prize of a Europa League win against fellow-strugglers Manchester United in what was a borderline unwatchable, low-quality game guaranteed Champions League participation this term, offering plenty of hope for optimism amongst the fans — though the Australian himself was shown the door, despite winning major silverware.
Thomas Frank replaced Postecoglou, off of his impressive time at Brentford, but things did not go to plan. Spurs have been spending significantly in recent years, and backed the Dane in the summer, to the tune of €210m, offset only marginally by the €42m generated primarily from the sales of Pierre-Emile Højbjerg and club legend Heung-min Son. The club signed six major players, in Xavi Simons (€65m, Ajax), Mohammed Kudus (€64m, West Ham), Mathys Tel (€35m, Bayern Munich), Kevin Danso (€25m, Lens) and loan pair João Palhinha (Bayern) and Randal Kolo Muani (PSG). On paper these players added plenty of capacity to refresh the team, but the impact has generally not been there.
Frank got off to a solid start, winning three of the opening four league games and five of the first nine — including a 3-0 thumping of the Blues at HDS, before things started trailing off. A lone victory, over Brentford, in the next eight, set against five losses and the pressure on the new boss started to rise, not helped by poor home form in front of an expectant crowd. With an injury crisis in full swing, Spurs plummeted towards the wrong end of the table and occasional positive results, such as a draw with Manchester City, were not able to reverse the direction of travel. Another home defeat, against Newcastle, meant the end for Frank, who was replaced by experienced firefighter Igor Tudor. The journeyman Croatian was a disaster: his brief spell at the rudder saw the club lose a further four from five and the alarm bells were now deafening.
With team morale at an all-season low, and performances on the pitch woeful, Tudor was quickly fired, with the Londoners rolling the dice once more, bringing in ex-Brighton and Marseille boss Roberto De Zerbi. The Italian lost his first outing, courtesy of a deflected shot at Sunderland, but has stabilized the team in short order, picking up eight points from his six games in charge. Last time out, despite playing fairly well, a careless giveaway resulted in a 2-1 loss to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, leaving the club in the precarious position of needing a point today, should the Hammers manage to beat Leeds United on home turf.
Team Assessment
De Zerbi immediately implemented a 4-2-3-1 system and the possession-heavy, play out from the back through the press approach which he’d used successfully at Brighton. This attack-minded passing system, in stark contrast to the far more defensive, direct and reactive style of Frank, and especially Tudor, seems to have been well received by the players, who appear to have quickly gained in confidence. Despite the ongoing injury problems in the side, it contains plenty of good technical footballers, who will surely find playing under the 46-year-old more to their taste, even if De Zerbi’s high press requires plenty of hard work off the ball, in order to regain possession in dangerous areas for the opposition.
Antonín Kinský has started every game in goal for the new boss, with Guglielmo Vicario recovering from injury, and the Czech has looked decent, though he’s only kept one clean sheet from six appearances. Cristian Romero is out, so Danso will partner the well-regarded Micky van de Ven at the heart of the defence. On the right is the experienced, attacking full back Pedro Porro, who has had a disappointingly unproductive campaign. On the opposite flank, the athletic Destiny Udogie has endured an injury-blighted season but is fit again and has been preferred to Djed Spence under De Zerbi.
The Italian has settled on a three man midfield of Palhinha alongside Rodrigo Bentancur, and January signing Conor Gallagher (€40m, Atlético) operating higher up. The Portuguese is a classic holding midfielder, who impressed at Fulham, but whose step up to Bayern ended after just one season. Bentancur is more of a deep-lying ball player, but he’s a good technician and Spurs missed him during the more than three months the Uruguayan missed with a hamstring injury. Gallagher, oft-linked to Everton, is a hard-working box-to-box midfielder who struggled for game time in LaLiga this season, but who has been a regular starter in North London. Having missed almost the full campaign with a knee injury, James Maddison managed to play half an hour from the bench against Chelsea – and his creativity is sure to be a factor if Spurs need to find a goal at any stage.
Former Blues favourite Richarlison has been leading the line for Spurs in recent weeks and may do so again today, with Dominic Solanke only just back from a spell on the sidelines. The ex-Bournemouth man barely played until January, through injury, and has yet to hit his stride, with just three league goals in 15 appearances. By contrast, the Brazilian has enjoyed a relatively clean bill of health and has scored eleven this term from 31, including two in the last three matches. With Simons out with an ACL injury, Tel will line up on the left. The French under-21 international shows flashes of talent, but is inconsistent. On the right is Kolo Muani, signed for €95m by PSG three years ago following an impressive season in the Bundesliga, but who failed to make the cut. After struggling at centre forward, he was moved to the flank by De Zerbi, but was guilty of a costly giveaway during the week.
Prediction
Moyes has come under increasing pressure over the past month, as Everton have entered a poorly-timed trough of poor form at a point where the doorway to Europe has been hanging open enticingly, ready to be strolled through. Instead, the Blues have stumbled on the brink, to such a degree that they enter the final week with nothing to play for. Jaded and leaky defensively, it’s hard to envisage why the team would suddenly reverse its tendencies now, having failed to do so previously — when they actually had something on the line. The team badly needs freshening up, some imagination shown in the manager’s dugout, and proactive use of the bench, but this is game 38 of the schedule and there is no expectation that Moyes will adopt a changed mindset at this (very) late stage.
So, I expect the Toffees to take to the pitch unchanged, unless the recently returned Idrissa Gueye is plugged back into the starting team, in place of Tim Iroegbunam. Considering the Senegalese will be heading to the World Cup in the United States in a couple of weeks, it would be unnecessary to rush the veteran back for this match. Otherwise, I think we – and De Zerbi – will know exactly who will take to the pitch representing the Blues at four PM local time tomorrow. The Italian is a good manager, and his team should realistically be nowhere near the relegation zone, but he has to contend with the situation he finds himself in, and with Spurs’ awful home form, which stands at two wins, six draws and ten losses, along with a nervous crowd.
Personally, I think De Zerbi’s natural confidence in himself and his methods, which has already carried over somewhat to the players, will cancel out any negativity this afternoon. Everton may be sufficiently motivated by recent setbacks to start with some aggression, but unless this pays early dividends, then the hosts should slowly gain control, and I can see the Toffees’ performance levels ebb as the game proceeds, in a pattern which has become familiar. Spurs don’t need to win, but I can see them doing so anyway, leaving many questions hanging in the air, from an Everton perspective, at the final whistle.
Scoreline: Everton 1-2 Spurs
Statistics provided courtesy of transfermarkt.com.
