There were not a lot of positives from Saturday’s disappointing loss to the Florida Gators to open up conference play. Florida won the line of scrimmage battle, outgained Texas on the ground and in the air,
and even outperformed on special teams. Can Steve Sarkisian fix the issues that plague Texas in time to turn the season around?
Daniel Seahorn (@DanielSeahorn) – There are some things that be cleaned up but the biggest issue that I don’t think can be fixed in season is the issues with the offensive line. I think it’s clear now that they are deficient on the interior and that they needed to seek help via the portal, and they are now stuck with what they have until the off-season.
Gerald Goodridge (@ghgoodridge) – I think they have the coaching ability, but possibly not the bodies. The biggest issue for me was how wildly inept Texas looked on the offensive line, and they did not go out and add any talent in the portal to fix that. They brought in Nick Brooks to play at left guard, but if the solution to your problem is to play a developmental freshman out of position, then the ship may have sailed already. Kyle Flood and Steve Sarkisian have a lot of work to do to fix that, so we don’t fully squander the skill talent they have amassed.
Cameron Parker (@camerondparker) – There is still a lot of youth and inexperience that play meaningful snaps on this roster, and that means they’ll only get better as the season goes on. Arch will get better with each game. The defense has too many bodies not to bounce back from Florida. The offensive line is what concerns me. Kelvin Banks ain’t walking through that door. Connor Williams ain’t walking through that door. Texas will play plenty more teams that have a defensive line that is either as good as Florida’s or better. If the offensive line cannot improve, Texas will be behind the 8-ball for a lof of these games.
Jacob Neidig (@jneidig_2) – It depends on the expectations for the rest of the season. Will Texas contend for the national championship? Even the SEC championship? Possibly, but unlikely. Can the Longhorns improve and play much better football? I’d argue yes. A lack of improvement from the Florida performance would be a colossal failure, far greater than just losing in the Swamp. If the offensive line can’t get better, the run game doesn’t improve, and the defense gets gashed, deeper questions about the quality of Kyle Flood, Sark, and the entire coaching staff need to be raised. A lack of improvement from the Florida game is inexcusable.
Quentin Bell (@uncleqbell) – I believe so, but that requires the Longhorns to win out the rest of the season. The play calling has improved with the offense giving flashes of prominence, but glory comes with consistency and intensity. The run game needs support, possibly with an ace set for tight ends to eventually open up play action, but in all to help back the LG. Special teams need to execute on containment and take advantage of potential opportunities. Defensively, the intensity has been consistent along with player effectiveness, which gives the Longhorns a foundation for a positive turnaround. The offense just needs to match the performance of the defense to see a turnaround.
Wescott Eberts (@SBN_Wescott) – Of the three phases, the defense has the best chance of fixing its issues, which largely amounted to some breakdowns in gap integrity, run fits, and setting the edge. Pete Kwiatkowski’s unit has earned the benefit of the doubt in those regards. Offensively, the left guard position is a glaring deficiency that I’m not sure Kyle Flood will be able to address. Sarkisian can help that group by showing more flexibility with his game plan in calling more screens and quick game. With special teams, this is the second straight year of significant struggles under Jeff Banks, so I’m rapidly losing confidence in his ability to turn things around.
Arch Manning spent most of his Saturday running for his life with the Florida Gators, generating 35 pressures and an absurd 22 quarterback hurries. We saw some flashes of promise from Manning, but also some disappointing interceptions and missed throws. Do you feel encouraged by Manning’s performance?
Daniel – I’ve said it to just about anyone who will listen, but I came out feeling better about Arch’s trajectory after what I saw from him. He showed a lot of mental toughness and made some big throws under pressure, and I think that is very encouraging for his outlook. They need to find a way to protect him and generate a run game if they don’t want him to be put in a chalk line by the end of the season.
Gerald – I said it in as many places as I can; It’s hard to play quarterback when you’re carrying 10 other guys on your back. We saw more of what makes Arch special in this game, with a run where he completed seven of 10 attempts for two touchdowns and got the Longhorns back in the game. I think the issues we still see with Arch, specifically hesitance to let the ball fly on a few snaps, are more a result of not being able to fully focus on delivering the ball because he is running for his life constantly. I actually think Arch is moving in the right direction, and if Sark and Flood can figure something out, he will be good.
Cameron – Yes. Arch was running for his life the entire 60 minutes against Florida. Did he miss throws? Yes. Should he utilize the checkdown option? Probably. But I’ve seen enough from him to believe the “bust” propaganda being spewed out.
Jacob – Absolutely. Manning made his share of mistakes, but the grit he showed speaks volumes about where the kid will eventually end up. Not to mention, he was forced to play hero ball. Being able to navigate a collapsing pocket every other dropback and still somewhat delivering the ball is not easy. Mark me down for being more confident in Manning after Saturday.
Quentin – Yes, Arch really showed grit and improvement against Florida, and the cohesiveness of the team flashed throughout the game. Arch’s pocket presence has grown with his o-line showing promise, but never finding the rhythm. The play calling is getting there, to say the leas,t to give Arch some balance and confidence as the season goes.
Wescott – It was an encouraging performance from the standpoints of contact courage and the continued improvement by Manning with his mechanics – it seems like he’s corrected the major sequencing issues he was having that resulted in so many inaccurate throws. If Manning can keep that up, the Texas passing game has a chance to start finding some real rhythm as long as the running game can keep the Longhorns from becoming totally one-dimensional like they were against the Gators.
After undergoing surgery on a broken thumb, Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer is eyeing a return to the field on Saturday. How much does Saturday’s game change with his availability, albeit not at 100%?
Daniel – I think even if he’s not 100% it definitely changes the equation a good bit. He’s a massive upgrade over Hawkins at the quarterback position, and he is the straw that stirs the drink for the Oklahoma offense.
Gerald – People called me crazy three weeks ago when I said Mateer would be back for this game. The timing of the surgery and recovery time screams “rushing back for Texas.” I think Mateer changes the offense because the upgrade over Hawkins is massive, plus he has been the only consistent running threat for that offense. That being said, rushing back and Texas putting a hit on that hand could do more to derail the Sooners’ season than just losing to Texas.
Cameron – It shifts the game in OU’s favor. No one is afraid of Michael Hawkins Jr. That’s why Oklahoma is rushing Mateer back to play in Saturday’s game. They don’t believe they can win this game without Mateer. That says it all. Now, how healthy is he? Can he throw? If he’s out there only to scare Texas but doesn’t pose a threat to throw it, it comes down to the Longhorns’ ability to stop the run.
Jacob – I’m skeptical Mateer will be able to play at even remotely close to the same level as the surgery, so even if he can play, I’d argue the game will 100% be impacted by his health. If Oklahoma had a great ground game, this wouldn’t be as big an issue, but they haven’t figured out how to run against quality opponents. Not to mention Hawkins Jr still hasn’t figured out his mechanical issues. He relies on a sidearm delivery too frequently and pays for it in accuracy. I mean he completed just 3 of his last 9 passes against Kent State. If Mateer can’t go, is severely limited, or is bounced from the game, it’s a big advantage for Texas.
Quentin – The rivalry intensifies everything, but Mateer’s presence elevates OU’s offense as a dual threat, really giving relief for the run game. This is a positive for Texas, but OU’s offensive adjustments with either Hawkins Jr. and/or Mateer have proven to be a force. The Longhorn defense will be tested.
Wescott – The game changes significantly with Mateer, even if he’s just a runner – it’s easy to underestimate how strong he is as a runner, but almost half of his rushing yards have come after contact, a significant differentiator from Michael Hawkins Jr., who is about 20 pounds lighter and more elusive than he is powerful.
Without knowing how much and how well Mateer is throwing for Oklahoma, it’s difficult to get a sense of whether he’s an upgrade over Hawkins at about 50 percent or so, but when Mateer is healthy, there is a vast gap in the throwing ability of the two quarterbacks. If Mateer plays and is capable of making the throws that he normally can make, that truly changes the game.
Is Texas still a College Football Playoff contender?
Daniel – While they technically still have an outside shot, I don’t see them as one right now until they show it to me on the field. You can’t be a true contender with the offensive line play I have seen so far this year, and unless they find a way to fix that in-season, I think the ceiling is much lower than any preseason expectations that were out there.
Gerald – Technically, yes. They have not been eliminated from contention. But I don’t think this is a playoff team, unless they back in via some weirdness at the top of the SEC. There is still a world in which my preseason prediction of the A&M game being an SEC Championship play-in, but that would require Texas to be nearly perfect for the rest of the year and the top of the SEC to eat itself. I honestly think the latter will happen, but I am not confident in Texas’s ability to hold up its end of the deal.
Cameron – I don’t believe Texas has the bodies on the offensive line to contend in the SEC this season. Sure, technically, they can win out and reach the College Football Playoff, but let’s see them win a conference game first.
Jacob – In theory, Texas could backdoor their way into the playoffs. There are enough quality opponents to build a strong resume, especially using the improvement over time line of reasoning. I am quite skeptical that this team can turn things around to reel off enough wins to put themselves in the conversation. With that being said, I’d like to see Sark and Co. play with some desperation. I can’t think of a time in the last two years when the team played like the rest of the season depended on it. Either way, I think a more realistic expectation would be a spoiler to other teams’ playoff hopes.
Quentin – In theory, yes. Texas has to win out. A convincing road win could help their argument for a playoff hope, but winning out is the key. It’ll be tough with two losses.
Wescott – Technically speaking, I don’t think Texas is eliminated yet, and the way that Florida plays for the rest of the season could make that loss look better or worse. But with the way the offensive line is playing and the lack of juice at running back, combined with questionable special teams play and some concerning mistakes defensively, it’s hard to imagine that the Longhorns will win the rest of their regular-season games, which is probably what it would take to be in serious playoff contention.
Everyone picked Texas to win (and cover) last week…will that change this week? Texas (-2.5 at FanDuel) or Oklahoma? Enter score prediction plz
Daniel (3-2/1-4 ATS) – IF Mateer plays, I have this at Oklahoma 24, Texas 14. I am very worried about Texas’s ability to have a functional offense against a very good defense that will be kicking their chops.
Gerald (3-2/2-3 ATS) – I am answering my questions on Tuesday, shortly after news broke that I was right about Mateer going to try to go on Saturday, the rare occasion the conspiracy theory is right. That colors my interpretation significantly. I think this is still a tight game, but for maybe the first time in the roundtable, I am picking against Texas. Texas 14, Oklahoma 17
Cameron (3-2/2-3 ATS) – It’s tough to predict not knowing the health of Mateer, but assuming he can throw a football farther than 10 yards, I think the combination of Mateer’s playmaking and OU’s defense will pose problems for the Horns. Texas 17, Oklahoma 30
Jacob (3-2/2-3 ATS) – The uglier this game gets, the more it benefits Texas. The OU wideouts against the Texas secondary, especially if Malik Muhammad misses the game, is quite worrisome, but I expect a big bounce-back performance from the Longhorn front seven. I think a few big plays could drastically swing this for the Longhorns, and I expect Sarkisian to get his team to play with desperation, something we haven’t seen in years. Texas 24, Oklahoma 21
Quentin (3-1/2-2 ATS) – I think this game will be explosive and will go to whichever defense shows up first. OU’s offense has shown more consistency with two different QBs opposed to Texas’ Manning, but I also think this will be a battle between coaching and play calling rather than player execution. Texas 28, Oklahoma 31
Wescott (3-3/1-4 ATS) – The spread and I are clearly not friends, which is why I do not offer thoughts in this space as gambling advice, and no one should ever trust me if for some reason, I lose my mind and try to offer gambling advice. I’m feeling pessimistic after that performance in Gainesville, so I’m picking Oklahoma to win and to cover, but anything can happen in this game, especially if Mateer can’t play or is clearly playing through injury.
Texas 20, Oklahoma 24
