With the breaking news that the Los Angeles Rams have traded their 2027 Round 1 pick for defensive end Myles Garrett, a consensus of fans were supportive, but not particularly surprised by the course of action. Certainly, Les Snead moving Day 1 draft picks, often for veteran talent, isn’t news to Rams fans any longer.
This move should also relieve some of the furor about L.A. drafting quarterback Ty Simpson at #13. Fans that were dismayed with the pick, cited the fact that drafting for the future
was not in the team’s best interest. Snead should have targeted a player that would help get the Rams over the hump in 2026 and aid in a Super Bowl run.
Now that it appears L.A. has made what should be the final major roster move for 2026, it’s as good time as any to take a look at playoff-bound teams Round 1 draft picks of the recent past, five years 2021 through 2025, and see what they have brought to the table.
I have graded the Day 1 prospects into three categories, hits, toss-ups, and misses. All based on their play and value to the team as rookies, even though some have developed and others fallen off.
2025
10 Round 1 picks made it to the playoff. Of those, three did little to help their team go forward. #2 Travis Hunter, #20 Jahdae Barron, and #30 Maxwell Hairston used their rookie years as an introductory year. There were three toss ups. #21 Derrick Harmon, #22 Omarion Hampton, and #23 Matthew Golden proffered production, but not much more than a journeyman NFL player. That leaves four, #4 Will Campbell, #8 Tet McMillan, #18 Grey Zabel and #31 Jihaad Campbell as intrinsic parts of their respective team’s.
JAX #2 – CB/WR Travis Hunter – 4 starts – 324 offense and 162 defensive snaps
NE #4 – T Will Campbell – 13 starts – 783 snaps
CAR #8 – WR Tet McMillan – 17 starts – 925 snaps
SEA #18 – G Grey Zabel – 17 starts – 1051 snaps
DEN #20 – CB Jahdae Barron – 5 starts – 334 snaps
PIT #21 – DT Derrick Harmon – 8 starts – 446 snaps
LAC #22 – RB Omarion Hampton – 6 starts – 384 snaps
GB #23 – WR Matthew Golden – 5 starts – 452 snaps
BUF #30 – CB Maxwell Hairston – 3 starts – 348 snaps
PHI #31 – ILB Jihaad Campbell – 10 starts – 710 snaps
No #1 pick – HSN, LAR
2024
13 Round 1 picks. Seven prospects, #2 Jayden Daniels, #5 Joe Alt, #12 Bo Nix, #19 Jared Verse, #22 Quinton Mitchell, and to a lesser extent #28 Xavier Worthy and #30 Nate Wiggins all were productive. #24 Terrion Arnold and #26 Graham Barton fit into the toss up category, they both received starts and snaps, but their play was not a huge step up. Four struggled with the transition, were injured, or both, #10 JJ McCarthy, #17 Dallas Turner, #20 Troy Fauntanu, and #25 Jordan Morgan
WAS #2 – QB Jayden Daniels – 17 starts – 1062 snaps
LAC #5 – T Joe Alt – 16 starts – 1011 snaps
MIN #10 – QB JJ McCarthy – 10 starts – 523 snaps
DEN #12 – QB Bo Nix – 17 starts – 1088 snaps
MIN #17 – E Dallas Turner – 0 starts – 300 snaps
LAR #19 – E Jared Verse – 16 starts – 834 snaps
PIT #20 – G Troy Fauntanu – 1 start – 55 snaps
PHI #22 – CB Quinyon Mitchell – 16 starts – 955 snaps
DET #24 – CB Terrion Arnold – 15 starts – 948 snaps
GB #25 – T Jordan Morgan – 1 start – 186 snaps
TB #26 – G Graham Barton – 16 starts – 1065 snaps
KC #28 – WR Xavier Worthy – 13 starts – 757 snaps
BAL #30 – CB Nate Wiggins – 6 starts – 680 snaps
No #1 pick – HSN, BUF
2023
13 Round 1 picks. Even if they weren’t getting every snap or starting all games, the bulk of this class produced. Nine players, #2 CJ Stroud, #3 Will Anderson, #9 Jalen Carter, $12 Jahmyr Gibbs, #14 Broderick Jones, #18 Jack Campbell, #19 Calijah Kancey, #22 Zay Flowers, and #25 Dalton Kincaid were all solid contributors to their team’s playoff runs. On the opposite end of the spectrum, #13 Lukas Van Ness, #26 Mazi Smith, #30 Nolan Smith, and #31 Felix Anudike-Uzomah all struggled.
HSN #2 – QB CJ Stroud – 15 starts – 968 snaps
HSN #3 – Will Anderson – 13 starts – 630 snaps
PHI #9 – DT Jalen Carter – 1 start – 561 snaps
DET #12 – RB Jahmyr Gibbs – 3 starts – 596 snaps
GB #13 – E Lukas Van Ness – 0 starts – 365 snaps
PIT #14 – T Broderick Jones – 11 – 767 starts
DET #18 – ILB Jack Campbell – 12 starts – 639 snaps
TB #19 – DT Calijah Kancey – 14 starts – 577 snaps
BAL #22 – WR Zay Flowers – 16 starts – 905 snaps
BUF #25 – TE Dalton Kincaid – 11 starts – 691 snaps
DAL #26 – DT Mazi Smith – 3 starts – 304 snaps
PHI #30 – E Nolan Smith – 0 starts – 188 snaps
KC #31 – E Felix Anudike-Uzmoah – 0 starts – 218 snaps
No #1 pick – CLE, MIA, LAR, SF
2022
14 Round 1 picks, most in the last five years and a good year for the pedigreed. #1 Travon Walker, #5 Kayvon Thibideaux, #9 Charles Cross, #14 Kyle Hamilton, #17 Zion Johnson, #21 Trent McDuffie, #24 Tyler Johnson, #25 Tyler Linderbaum, and #30 George Karlaftis all made their teams better as rookie’s. #5 Evan Neal and #13 Jordan Davis were Year 1 toss ups. #23 Kaiir Elam, #31 Dax Hill, and #32 Lewis Cine failed to get off on the right foot.
JAX #1 – E Travon Walker – 14 starts – 788 snaps
NYG #5 – E Kayvon Thibodeaux – 14 starts – 740 snaps
NYG #7 – T Evan Neal – 13 starts – 737 snaps
SEA #9 – T Charles Cross – 17 starts – 1091 snaps
PHI #13 – DT Jordan Davis – 5 starts – 224 snaps
BAL #14 – S Kyle Hamilton – 4 starts – 548 snaps
LAC #17 – G Zion Johnson – 17 starts – 1184 snaps
KC #21 – CB Trent McDuffie – 11 starts – 684 snaps
BUF #23 – CB Kair Elam – 6 starts – 477 snaps
DAL #24 – T Tyler Smith – 17 starts – 1144 snaps
BAL #25 – C Tyler Linderbaum – 17 starts – 1094 snaps
KC #30 – E George Karlaftis – 17 starts – 730 snaps
CIN #31 – CB Dax Hill – 2 starts – 131 snaps
MIN #32 – S Lewis Cine – 0 starts – 2 snaps
No #1 pick – SF, MIA, TB
2021
Four prospects, #3 Trey Lance, #16 Zaven Collins, #17 Alex Leatherwood, and #22 Caleb Farley didn’t provide much at all. #32 Joe Tryon was a toss up. The remaining seven, #5 Ja’Marr Chase, #10 DeVonta Smith, #12 Micah Parsons, #15 Mac Jones, #24 Najee Harris, #29 Eric Stokes, and #30 Gregory Rousseau all had solid rookie seasons.
SF #3 – QB Trey Lance – 2 starts – 178 snaps
CIN #5 – WR Ja’Marr Chase – 17 starts – 939 snaps
PHI #10 – WR DeVonta Smith – 16 starts – 916 snaps
DAL #12 – E Micah Parsons – 16 starts – 904 snaps
NE #15 – QB Mac Jones – 17 starts – 1065 snaps
ARZ #16 – ILB Zaven Collins – 6 starts – 220 snaps
LV #17 – T Alex Leatherwood – 17 starts – 1105 snaps
TEN #22 – CB Caleb Farley – 3 starts – 60 snaps
PIT #24 – RB Najee Harris – 17 starts – 980 snaps
GB #29 – CB Eric Stokes – 14 starts – 935 snaps
BUF #30 – Edge Gregory Rousseau – 17 starts – 531 snaps
TB #32 – Edge Joe Tryon – 6 starts – 560 snaps
No #1 pick – KC, LAR
Can a Day 1 pick put a playoff-bound team over the top?
Like most subjective questions, there’s no clear yes and no. Obviously, if you trade that #1 for arguably the best pass rusher in the NFL, your chances go up exponentially, but let’s concentrate on teams that actually took a player in Round 1.
To my eye, teams making the playoffs over the last five years had a 58 percent hit rate (36 of 62) on players drafted in Round 1. Although much more subjective, I graded 13 percent (8 of 62) into the toss-up category, as to how much they actually improved their respective teams. 29 percent (18 of 62) had little, or no hand as upgrades. Interestingly, every Super Bowl winning team in this period, excepting the the Los Angeles Rams in 2021-22, received quality play from their Day 1 draftees.
Drafting within the top one-third, #1 through #11, produced a solid hit rate of 75 percent (12 of 16). On picks #12 through #21 the hits dropped to 60 percent (12 of 20). Towards the bottom of Round 1, picks #22 through #32, the hit rate fell off even more to 46 percent. It should be reiterated that, these numbers are based on each draft selections rookie year. Some have proven out to be solid pro’s after a rough start and others have receded after a strong rookie campaign.
Playoff-bound teams have drafted six quarterbacks in Round 1 since 2021, Jayden Daniels, JJ McCarthy, Bo Nix, CJ Stroud, Mac Jones, and Trey Lance. Putting injuries aside, Daniels, Nix, and Stroud are bonafide starters; Jones is a solid QB#2; the jury is still out on McCarthy; and Lance is just hanging on.
This doesn’t answer the question of how much, or little, the Rams 2026 #1 pick, Ty Simpson, will help out this season. Unless disaster strikes, he was drafted to sit, learn, and be groomed. But it does give fans a simple look at the probabilities of a #13 pick putting L.A. over the top in 2026. Basically a 60/40 proposition, to the good. Not close to a sure thing.
