Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight rivals Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway will clash TONIGHT (Sat., July 11, 2026) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC 329.
Well, well, well … we’re finally here, aren’t we? Barring catastrophic disaster in the next few hours, Conor McGregor will FINALLY make his UFC return! It’s been a long five years since the Dustin Poirier leg break, and if we’re being honest, there are quite a few low points in McGregor’s personal and professional
life in that span. It feels outrageous to think he can bounce back from all that adversity against an opponent the calibre of Holloway, but if anybody can pull it off, “The Notorious” feels like a good bet. Holloway, meanwhile, was closing in on a Lightweight title shot prior to his one-sided loss to Charles Oliveira. Fortunately, Justin Gaethje’s recent title win puts “Blessed” right back in the conversation, though he’ll first have to avenge a 13-year-old defeat to return to the win column.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
McGregor vs. Holloway Betting Odds
- Conor McGregor victory: +182
- Conor McGregor via TKO/KO/DQ: +270
- Conor McGregor via submission: +2500
- Conor McGregor via decision: +1100
- Max Holloway victory: -235
- Max Holloway via TKO/KO/DQ: -115
- Max Holloway via submission: +1400
- Max Holloway via decision: +650
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
How McGregor Wins
At his peak, McGregor was one of the very best strikers to ever grace the UFC’s Octagon. He lost a bit of his infamous touch of death when he moved away from Featherweight, but the Irishman’s shot selection and distance management were always a thing of beauty. Even after the Mayweather fight (and thus after his MMA prime), McGregor could still throw a ripping combo like few others.
Since there’s almost no chance McGregor has five hard rounds of cardio in him as a 37-year-old Welterweight — did he ever have that level of gas tank? Probably not — I can see two possible paths to victory for McGregor. On one hand, he could knock out Holloway early on. Alternatively, he could land hard enough to quell Holloway’s famous volume, allowing him to buy himself rest and chances to recover throughout the fight (similar to the Nate Diaz rematch).
Either way, he has to hurt the Hawaiian early.
It’s unusual to ask the rusty fighter to start quickly, but that’s the challenge that McGregor faces. He’s going to have to be on his timing and his pressure early on, because he cannot let Holloway build offense. When Holloway establishes his jab, feints, and range, he’s a very difficult man to deal with, so McGregor’s odds of finding a heavy connection prior to fading will be poor.
If he can push the smaller man to the fence early and find the chin, McGregor is a live dog.
How Holloway Wins
Holloway is not only an all-time great action fighter, but he’s a statistical anomaly. He throws and lands at a higher rate than any other fighter ever, and he’s maintained that style against an incredible good class of competition. Don’t let the former Featherweight king’s loss to “Do Bronxs” fool you either: he’s historically an excellent defensive wrestler with crafty jiu-jitsu.
In fact, I’d love to see Holloway wrestle a bit here. Why not? McGregor grew less dangerous with time even in his prime, and that’s only likely to grow more true with further age and weight slowing him down. Like Poirier did in the rematch, Holloway could use a takedown attempt or two to keep McGregor honest and wear on his muscles even without making that his entire strategy.
In the first fight all those years ago, Holloway really struggled to open up against McGregor’s varied offense and stomping side-on kicks. He’s an entirely different athlete nowadays, but the onus is still on Holloway to jab his way into the pocket and create offense. He cannot stand in front of McGregor and watch the flashy striker work — he has to answer back and press the issue right away.
Even if he’s getting hit early on, persistence will pay off as the rounds wear on.
McGregor vs. Holloway 2 Prediction
I put very little stock in the first fight. Holloway was still a child (though a talented one certainly), whereas McGregor was a champion on the rise. Since then, Holloway has developed physically and technically in every way, whereas McGregor has grown worse and less committed to the fight game. Holloway remains a genuine Top Five Lightweight with a devastating knockout win over the current champion, while McGregor hasn’t won a fight since before the COVID-19 pandemic.
McGregor is the type of fighter who — in his heyday — could make you believe in miracles. Puffed up and post-leg break at 37 years of age, he’s going to need one here.
