Internal monologue:
Ok, time to write the annual preview article for the season. This is important, try not to mess it up. I mean, I know growing up that one of my favorite things to do was to open up the Sports Illustrated NBA preview issue and find the Celtics section. Then I would devour the previews from the Boston Globe. I want the new generation to feel that with this blog and look up to me like I looked up to Jack McCallum, Bob Ryan, and Jackie MacMullan. I should really make an effort to be objective,
informative, fair, and balanced.
Then again, I’ll never have the kind of talent and drive those legends did. Why do I need people looking up to me? Maybe don’t take yourself so seriously. What, do you think you’re going to get your big break at age 51? Why don’t you just write from your heart and see if people connect with it?
Ok, you convinced me. Or maybe I convinced me. Whatever.
Sometimes I try to approach these things by establishing the bookend of “best case” and “worst case” and go from there. But let’s be honest, we all know that the worst case involves injuries and failures and sad times; and really who needs that in their preseason preview article? So we’re going with good vibes only in this one.
Jayson Tatum is back
Everything starts with the star of the show. The MVP candidate who returned in record time from Achilles surgery to look (mostly) like his old self at the end of last season. He has had a full offseason to recover and train and should (by all accounts) be up to full speed for the season.
It is a joy to watch Jayson Tatum play basketball. Full stop. He’s so talented in so many different ways. In fact, his versatility is one of his greatest and sometimes most underrated talents. He can score at all 3 levels (and even in the creases between those levels). He’s a willing and talented playmaker. He can be the hub of the offense but he can also get off the ball and still be effective. He’s a monster on the boards. He’s a disruptive help defender and generally an extension of the coaching staff on the court.
He’s so buttoned up and politically correct that it is almost boring. But he’s also so genuine with it that it comes across as endearing rather than eye rolling. He actually does just love basketball with all his heart and wants to play it the right way. He wants to be a leader and an inspiration to the next generation.
The spotlight tends to gravitate toward more edgy personalities, but I want to show some appreciation to a man that I’m proud to have my kids root for. I can’t wait to see what he does with the year ahead and beyond.
Brad Stevens has a plan
We can’t have a preview without addressing the departure of Jaylen Brown. That one hurt a lot of hearts and we each processed the news in our own ways. I was confused and angry and full of several other emotions at the time. The following months provided a little more context and perspective. Call it cope if you like, but I think I can see the vague outline of the vision.
In the back of our minds we knew something like this was probably coming sooner or later. Smart cap people were warning us about it for years. Nearly every other decision this front office has made has looked extremely smart over time. Why would this one be any different? In short, I’d trust Brad Stevens and his judgement long before I’d trust my own heart. He’s not without flaw, but he’s very good at his job.
As it stands, the roster is built around Jayson Tatum and a “replace Giambi in the aggregate” collection of Moneyball support players. Derrick White is poised to shake off his shaky shooting and remind everyone why he’s a plus-minus god. Payton Pritchard might be the best bargain contract in the league (not counting rookie deals).
At this time last year the big rotation was universally cited as the team’s most glaring weakness. Stealing Mitchell Robinson from the defending champs gives the Celtics one of the better center rotations in the league, with Luka Garza a luxury as the 3rd string big.
Then there’s the PG13 sized signature shoe waiting to drop. At some point the front office will have to decide if they want to move Paul George (and possibly draft picks) in exchange for a player or multiple players that better fit into the team’s short and long term plans. But there’s no need to rush that decision until we understand exactly what the needs are for this team.
Of course there’s also a world in which the team decides to keep George. Why would they keep the guy that just a year ago was listed among the worst contracts in the league? Well, what if everything goes right with the young players and several of them end up as high level rotation players? If there are no holes on the roster then there’s no need to move George (or those valuable draft picks) to fill roles. You could either extend George on a more reasonable number or let his contract eventually expire as extensions are starting to kick in.
The kids are more than alright
As hard as it was to move on from the core of a championship roster, the front office has replaced aging veterans with developing talent. While most (myself included) assumed last year would be a big step back (gap year), the team barely missed a step and gave guys valuable reps in a winning system (something a tanking team just can’t replicate).
Jordan Walsh, Hugo Gonzalez, Baylor Scheierman, and even Ron Harper Jr. each took turns proving they belong in this league. Each has had a season to build off the confidence those reps gave them and shore up shortcomings in their games. Neemias Queta went from major question mark to a tremendous success story.
Through the draft the team added Chris Cenac Jr. and Dillon Mitchell. Both of whom may see more time in Maine than Boston, but each of whom as real translatable talents for the NBA. They may have even uncovered a hidden gem in Devin Carter (when in doubt, take a flyer on a Kings cast-off, right Neemy?)
This isn’t a “two timelines” thing either. These are young players that have proven they can contribute to winning and they will have opportunities to show their stuff. The veterans are all willing teachers and “old heads” that can provide guidance and direction when needed. From Tatum to White to Paul George to Mike Conley, there are enough adults in the room to keep everyone focused. And of course when those guys need an extra few days of rest, the young guys will happily step into bigger roles.
Speaking of keeping everyone focused, I am a Joe Mazzulla believer. The biggest long-term challenge a coach has is getting the same guys to buy in year after year without the message turning stale. Joe seems to inherently understand this and he’s continually looking for new ways to get his message across. It helps that the roster turnover has given him new ears to bend and the veterans remaining (Tatum, White) are notoriously coachable.
Why not us?
Prediction time. There are a lot of very good teams in the East. I have a lot of respect for the defending champion Knicks. The Sixers have assembled a lot of on-paper talent. The Cavs have a track record of regular season success and are coming off an Eastern Conference Finals appearance. The Pistons had a dominant regular season. The Heat added Giannis to their “culture.” The Raptors brought back Kawhi Leonard and didn’t have to plant a single tree. The Pacers are bringing back Tyrese Hilburton and adding Ivaca Zubac. There’s going to be a lot of competition for the East title.
However, I keep coming back to the subtitle question. Why not us?
The Celtics have the talent and the system and enough young try-hards to finish in the top 3 of the Eastern Conference standings. Maybe even the top 2 (again). As I’m sure you’ve heard 100 times already, it is notable that fewer teams will be tanking, so the win totals might be harder to replicate from last year. But I could see the Celtics easily clearing the 5o.5 to 51.5 wins that Vegas is setting their over/under at (kids, don’t gamble, the house always wins).
My official prediction is 55 wins, if anyone cares. In the spirit of good vibes only, who’s to say that this team can’t win it all? Sure, it would take some good matchup luck, reasonably good health, and perhaps a few fortunate bounces, but what title team hasn’t had all those things in their favor? They key will be translating all that “try hard” execution from the regular season into consistent execution in the playoffs when everyone else is trying hard too.
Sure, there are plenty of things that could go sideways this season. There will be plenty of time to react to those things in real time. For the moment, however, anything is possible and the vibes are fresh and new. I’m excited to start this journey and see where it leads us again. This feeling of giddy anticipation is what got me hooked on basketball in the first place (all those decades ag0). Why not embrace it a little bit longer? Let’s go Celtics!
