I know. The headline is a very big-brained idea for the San Francisco 49ers and Kyle Shanahan. The player who leads the world in touches should be the focal point for the 49ers’ offense in Arizona on Sunday.
Hear me out, this is exactly the type of game and matchup Christian McCaffrey is built for. I’ll list two other matchups to watch on Sunday as well. The importance of another NFC and divisional win is paramount for a team looking to get into the playoffs. The Cardinals are banged up going into this one, as are the 49ers, obviously, but the potential losses for the Cardinals may be too much to overcome.
Here are three things to watch for on Sunday.
This is Christian McCaffrey’s game to take over in Arizona
While we aren’t sure who will start at quarterback at the time this is being written, whoever starts won’t change the fact that McCaffrey needs to touch the ball early and often. The Cardinals rank 18th in the NFL with 114.1 rushing yards per game allowed. Over their last four games, Arizona has allowed over 120 rushing yards three times, with the Green Bay Packers rushing for 94 yards in Week 7. The rushing defense allowed 150 to the probable Offensive Player of the Year, Jonathan Taylor, and the Colts in Week 6. In the last two weeks, Arizona allowed 123 and 198 yards to Dallas and Seattle, respectively.
Throwing McCaffrey the football underneath is a recipe for success as well. Arizona has seen short passes against their defense only 66.1%, which is 21st in the NFL, but their defensive EPA allowed on short throws ranks 23rd at 0.07. Couple the Cardinals’ struggles defending short passes with the 49ers’ EPA on short throws (0.15, 6th in the NFL), and this has the feel of a big McCaffrey game on Sunday.
Slowing down Trey McBride
Another big-brained idea, but without Marvin Harrison or Zay Jones as pass-catching options, the 49ers must emphasize finding where #85 is on each play. When Jacoby Brissett took over at quarterback, the Cardinals’ passing offense took a huge bump, including Harrison and McBride. Space was afforded the ascending tight end with Harrison’s presence on the outside, but now McBride will likely be the first, second, and third option for Brissett.
McBride has notched eight-plus receptions in three of his last four games, including a ten catch, two touchdown performance in Green Bay, and last week’s nine catch, 124 yard, with a touchdown in the blowout loss to Seattle. In his previous four games, McBride has five receiving touchdowns. How the 49ers plan on slowing down the impressive tight end is the question. Given the problems with the 49ers’ back end, Robert Saleh can’t afford to allow McBride to end up singled up on anyone.
Playing from under center and using play action against Arizona
If the 49ers get the running game going with McCaffrey and Brian Robinson, Shanahan can exploit one of the Cardinals’ defensive weaknesses and attack their linebackers in space. Through ten weeks, the 49ers are 25th in the NFL with a play-action rate of 20.2%. Conversely, the Cardinals have faced the third-fewest play-action attempts in the NFL at 18.6%, but rank 20th in the NFL defending play-action with an EPA of 0.19.
The 49ers’ under-center rate is the sixth-highest in the NFL at 44.6%. At the same time, the Cardinals sit with an EPA against under center of 0.00, but are 18th in the NFL against MOF throws with an EPA of 0.35. The 49ers attack the middle of the field more than any team in the NFL at a 27.6% rate. Create throwing lanes in the MOF with play action, and the explosives will be there for the taking. Perhaps Ricky Pearsall’s return will jump-start the receiver room.
