Well well well. The Michigan Wolverines have already clinched a share of the Big Ten regular season championship, but there is still work to be done. Dusty May is seeking to earn the outright title in just his second season in Ann Arbor, and his squad has a chance to do so Friday night in the absolute perfect place. There is going to be plenty of hostility in Champaign all evening, but these Wolverines would not want it any other way.
The Illinois Fighting Illini were at one time threats to Michigan’s
championship aspirations, but like Nebraska and Purdue and Michigan State, they have stumbled too many times over the past couple months. While a loss on Friday would barely reduce the Wolverines’ outright title odds, there is no way the entire roster is going to see this as anything other than a game for all the marbles.
No. 3 Michigan (26-2, 16-1) at No. 10 Illinois (22-6, 13-4)
Date & Time: Friday, Feb. 27, 8 p.m. ET
Location: State Farm Center, Champaign, IL
TV/Streaming: FOX
Ever since the covid cancellations, Illinois has hated Michigan, and unfortunately that hatred has been backed up on the court. There is no shying away from the truth: the Wolverines have lost the last NINE contests against the Illini, which is frankly hard to even comprehend. That streak has to die sometime, though, and there would be no better moment for that than this one.
Two Stats to Watch
Illinois Adj. Offense: 1st B1G (1st Overall)
So yea, the Illinois offense is great, and it all starts with Keaton Wagler. In a college basketball season featuring one of the best freshman classes in a long, long time, no one was expecting much from the No. 261 recruit in the 247 Composite, yet here we are. Wagler is the No. 3-overall player per Kenpom this season with the 18th-best Offensive Rating thanks to his 18.2 PPG, 4.3 APG, and 42% shooting from deep.
Wagler is obviously the top of the scouting report for Michigan, but the dangers do not stop there. The Illini take more threes than anyone in the conference, with all five starters hitting above 34% of their attempts — yes, even the bigs — and all five starters attempting over 100 threes apiece this season. If the defense leaves someone open behind the arc, a shot is going to go up.
Despite all of this, Illinois is just fifth in effective field goal percentage in conference play, which is good but not elite. That descriptor could be used for nearly every facet of this unit except for offensive rebounds, where the Illini lead the Big Ten. This is definitely something to watch, as Duke killed Michigan by grabbing nearly 40% of its misses. That absolutely cannot happen again on Friday.
Illinois Takeaway Rate: 10.3% (18th B1G)
Like defensive rebounding, the other ghost from last season that Michigan can not afford to let resurface is the turnover issues. For the most part this has not been terrible, but two of the last three games have eclipsed the 20% mark, and that is asking for trouble. While the Wolverines overcame this sloppiness in West Lafayette, giving away possessions in a tough road environment is never a good idea.
Fortunately, steals are really not a big part of Illinois’ game. There have been a few games with higher takeaway rates, but for the most part there is rarely a consistent threat from this defense to force a ton of turnovers. Any elevated numbers in this contest would likely come from self-infliction, and that is the worst way Michigan could end up tipping the scales.
Overall, this is a solid defense, ranking fifth in conference play. Michigan will have to work for its baskets and have to fight on the offensive glass, as both teams do well in these respective areas. The Illini rarely foul, but the Wolverines were unlikely to get a favorable whistle anyway. With so much of this game close on paper, turnovers could easily become the difference. The Michigan backcourt has been good down the stretch, but must show excellent ball security in order for the Champagne to flow in Champaign.
