Eight games remain in the 2026 regular season.
Entering Saturday’s action, the Cubs, Phillies and Padres are all tied for the three National League wild card spots at 85-69. The Diamondbacks are 80-74 and on the verge of elimination, five games behind; their elimination number with the Cubs is 3. (It’s more complicated for Arizona with the Phillies and Padres, but for now let’s skip that.)
This is where it’s really fortunate that the Cubs have the tiebreaker over both those teams. If all three teams wound
up tied at the end of the regular season, the Cubs would get the first wild card spot. In that scenario they’d host the Phillies, because Philadelphia swept their season series 6-0 over San Diego. Here are all the various tiebreaker rules.
Today, The Athletic posted an article noting the odds and percentages for various postseason scenarios and so I thought it’d be useful for us to take a look at them.
First, here are the percentage odds for the possible postseason matchups for the first two rounds:
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As you can see, the wild card round is still kind of muddled. The most likely matchup for the Cubs is still with the Phillies, but it’s possible they could face the Padres — or even the Braves, if the Cubs get dumped into the last wild card spot, the No. 6 seed.
The Brewers are very likely to be the No. 1 National League seed. They currently lead the Dodgers by two games and hold the tiebreaker.
Now, here are the Cubs’ percentages of making the postseason and where they would wind up, based on each possible W/L record:
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The best-case scenario here would be for the Cubs to go at least 6-2 in the eight remaining games. That would give them an 89 percent or better chance of being the top wild card team and hosting the wild card series. Even at 5-3, they would be more likely than not to be the host team, depending on what the other teams involved do over the same span.
The worst-case scenarios are going 2-6 or worse, which could dump them into the No. 6 position. And an 0-8 run (which would actually be 0-9, since the Cubs lost Friday) would give them a small chance (10 percent) of missing the postseason completely.
I don’t think that “worst case” is going to happen. I still think the Cubs will take the last two games in Cincinnati and then they’ve got the Marlins at home. Miami is 31-45 on the road this year and so the Cubs ought to take at least two of three from them at Wrigley Field. Then the Cubs travel to Boston, where the Red Sox are likely going to be locked in to the second wild card spot in the American League before that series begins. So the Cubs should win at least one, maybe two, at Fenway Park.
That would leave the Cubs at either 5-3 or 6-2 in the eight remaining games, giving them good odds of being the host team for a Wild Card series at Wrigley Field.
Fingers crossed. As always, we await developments.
