The Golden State Warriors start their 2026-27 season this evening, tipping off against the Los Angeles Lakers. Here are five bold predictions for this Dubs season:
1. Yaxel Lendeborg averages the most points and rebounds by a Warriors rookie in the 21st century
Bolder prediction: Yaxel will win Rookie of the Year
No Warriors rookie in the 21st century has averaged more points than Steph Curry (17.5) and rebounds than Anthony Randolph (5.8). Barring injury, Lendeborg appears on a clear trajectory to surpass
Randolph’s rebounding mark and be in the ballpark of Steph’s rookie scoring average. And while most folks are projecting Lendeborg to end up averaging something closer to 12-15 points per game, the situation is set up for him to blow past that mark.
Not only have the Warriors stars and head coach been imploring Lendeborg to be more aggressive, but Golden State simply lacks scorers on the roster. One of their most dangerous, Kristaps Porziņģis, is already out in definitely. Jimmy Butler III is recovery from an ACL tear and will conservatively miss 30-50 games. A fully healthy Curry will likely miss 10-15 games to rest, and any injury to him would leave the Warriors thirsting for offense.
Unless Brandin Podziemski or Gui Santos takes a massive step forward as a scorer, Lendeborg is entering the season as the Warriors clear second option. When Curry rests (or if he gets hurt), he will be the team’s primary scorer. Lendeborg finishing the season averaging 18 points and 6.5 rebounds per game seems quite reasonable at the present moment. If he can approach averaging 20 and 10, he will be in the Rookie of the Year conversation.
2. Georges Niang will make the third most threes on the team
Bolder prediction: He will be the Warriors highest bench scorer
Perhaps the least heralded Warriors acquisition this offseason, Georges Niang is a proven really good NBA role player who is an incredible three-point shooter. From 2020-2025, Niang made 40.1% of his three-point attempts, never played fewer than 72 games in a season, and averaged 1.9 made threes per game. For context, Otto Porter Jr. averaged just 1.3 made three per game in his lone season with the Dubs.
Niang missed all of last season with injury, but his previous track record of durability combined with Porzingis’ absence will leave a wide open opportunity for him in the rotation. While the Warriors have a surprisingly deep roster of quality three-point shooters, Niang is really the only “marksman” on the active roster besides Curry. Steph will lead the Dubs in made threes barring injury, obviously, and Podziemski will likely finish second simply through his volume of minutes, but it’s wide open after that. Moses Moody finished third on the team last year with 151 made threes. Draymond Green finished fourth with 101 makes. Quinten Post was fifth with 93. Niang averaged more than 156 made threes per season over his last four healthy campaigns.
De’Anthony Melton and Brandon Williams may seem better positioned to lead the Warriors in bench points, but I’m betting on Niang carving out a role that consistently gets 8-12 points a game while Melton and Williams will likely eat into each other’s opportunities. Niang will end up without many minutes if Porziņģis ends up healthy or Al Horford has a particularly strong year, but that seems like a safer bet.
3. LJ Cryer is a core rotation piece
Bolder prediction: Cryer will pass Brandon Williams on the depth chart/roster
I’m a sucker for shooting. As dynamic as Brandon Williams is off the dribble, Cryer is a legitimate 40% three-point shooter. Williams would have been a perfect pairing with Kristaps Porziņģis in the second-unit, and will still likely have some shooting next to him via Horford or Niang, but with Lendeborg looking like a viable creator all on his own, and Butler eventually returning to the floor, Cryer’s gravity could become more valuable than Williams’ creation.
4. Jimmy Butler III will play more games in 2026-27 than he did in 2025-26
Bolder prediction: Butler will be back on Christmas Day
Butler is headed to free agency and will ultimately be playing for what is likely his last shot at a big contract when he returns. The sooner he can play his first game, the longer he has to ramp up. Obviously Rick Celebrini and Butler’s doctors will not rush him back, but a 10-month ACL recovery is within the norm at this point, which would give him an opportunity to return on Christmas Day. After playing in just 38 games last season, Butler could return on January 7th, sit out the remaining back-to-backs on Golden State’s schedule, and match his total from last season.
5. Warriors will make the playoffs
Bolder prediction: Without the play-in
The Warriors won 37 games last season despite horrendous injury luck. Podziemski and Green were the lone players expected to be key rotation pieces that appeared in more than 60 games. Meanwhile they won 37 games with Curry (43 games) and Butler (38 games) each missing half the season and Porziņģis (15 games) barely appearing after his deadline acquisition.
While it’s reasonable to expect Curry to miss some time, he also played in 74 and 70 games in the two respective seasons prior to last year. If Curry plays in just 60 games, Butler only plays in 35, and Porziņģis appears in 30, that would still be a significantly healthier season from the team’s three most proven offensive players. Add in the seemingly immediate impact Yaxel Lendeborg can make alongside reasonable expectations of further development from Santos and Podziemski (also Melton getting another year removed from ACL surgery) and the Warriors seem quite well positioned to be better than they were a season ago.
Now, it’s reasonable to wonder whether improvement will translate to victories, especially in a league without the same incentives to tank. However, I see the Western Conference as far weaker than in previous years. The Thunder and Spurs should have no problem withstanding injuries, the Rockets should be in the same category (although it’s worth wondering if they could falter if Kevin Durant misses any significant time), but the Nuggets are nearly as reliant on Nikola Jokić as the Warriors are on Curry. The Lakers are built around three players who all missed time with injury last season, and they performed exceptionally well in close games last year; will that continue without LeBron James? The Wolves traded two of their most productive offensive players, replacing them in the rotation with LaMelo Ball and Jonathan Kuminga, two players with questions about consistency who have also struggled to stay on the floor.
I am not a believer in the Suns after they traded two valuable veteran role players for Miles Bridges, and am skeptical that their effort-based success will pay as many dividends a second year in a row. The Blazers were a pleasant surprise last year but have already lost one key player to a season-ending injury and have a first-year coach facing a bizarre roster configuration with Ja Morant and Damian Lillard alongside a wing who functions best with the ball in his hands. The only other team to finish ahead of the Warriors last season was the Clippers, and they won’t have James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, or Ivica Zubac this season.
Perhaps the Jazz or Grizzlies take a massive step forward, but I think the Warriors end up finishing the season with 44-46 wins and the sixth seed in the Western Conference.
